Live data from Hacker News

We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

421–430 of 741 posts

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does both! There is no natural law which prevents the formation of a monopoly.

> It does both! No, it does not concentrate wealth. Wealth is not a fixed pie. In a free market, you get wealthy by creating wealth, not concentrating it. As for monopolies, competition is what prevents them.

Unregulated capitalism inevitably trends towards a mafia state with an oligarchic structure and concentrated monopolistic power. It’s just an empirical fact at this point.

The engine that really drives innovation and wealth creation is regulated capitalism that preserves competitive markets by restraining anticompetitive behavior.

If you’re ideologically attached to capitalism I have good news for you. That’s the approach that leads to its most effective implementation.

If you’re ideologically attached to “market fundamentalism” as I suspect, which is a reflexive opposition to regulation, then this concentrated market structure is what you’re advocating for.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> what has that attitude gotten you? I've gotten language I wrote passed into multiple state and a few federal laws. Definitey helps when I'm the only one to call my electeds on an issue. The lazy and nihilistic aren't great for our country. But they're great if you put any work into civic engagement.

[flagged]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#423
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw someone say recently "hobbies are a luxury" and I tend to agree. Think back decades ago and you had a single person or a family supported by a single income who could afford the rent or to buy their house and put their kids through college. By the late 1970s and 1980s the balance had shifted to where more households than not had both parents working. Then people started having multiple jobs. This was in part be…

> By the late 1970s and 1980s the balance had shifted to where more households than not had both parents working. True, but somewhat misleading. This includes parents that work part-time. If we only include full-time work then it's never been over 50%. Largely this reflects the second wave of feminism and women being able to get jobs they want! > Then people started having multiple jobs. This was in part because empl…

> Employers tend to prefer full-time employees ...

They don't [1][2].

> Most people work in services where there aren't really "capital owners". ~50% of Americans work for small businesses that hardly fit that model either.

Small businesses absolutely fit the model, specifically "petite bourgeoisie" [3]. The problem with small business owners is they think they're capital owners (or will be someday) so they vote for the interests of capital owners but most small businesses are just jobs you have to buy with typically less pay and less security.

[1]: https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/05/part-tim...

[2]: https://www.epi.org/publication/still-falling-short-on-hours...

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petite_bourgeoisie

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#424

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

God forbid some poor soul who needs a job to feed their family works for a casino. snob

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#425
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling outside of equities and securities is a negative externality. (Investment in startups, goods, etc. makes the economy spin. Investing in what hoop a ball goes through does no good at all.) This puts plenty of people who shouldn't gamble into debt and lowers their societal fitness. The other side of the gamble is probably losing on average too. Only the house and infrequent insiders win. These private companie…

It is not for you to decide what one should or shouldn't do. Plenty of people want to gamble, and don't give a fuck of what you think they should or shouldn't do. And they are right: it's none of your fucking business. Kalshi and PolyMarket are doing something absolutely wonderful for those people (i.e. the only people who should care about these "prediction markets" at all): they actually make betting fair, which wa…

> It is not for you to decide what one should or shouldn't do.

What's the limit?

Murder? Taking fentanyl? Selling fentanyl? Shitting on the sidewalk? Taking photos of kids in public? Screaming fire in a theater? Defamation? Misleading poor people into thinking they can get ahead by spending their savings?

If there was no limit to what I should or should not do, I could just kill everyone I disagree with and take their money. But we know that's preposterous.

Here's the thing though: in aggregate, that's exactly what this is. Taking money from poor and undereducated people is like killing them. It's stealing their lives, indebting them, making them less fit, putting them on a lower trajectory for life. Killing their chances.

That's about the biggest fucking negative externality big tech has introduced to the world. And for what? To make a handful of people rich?

This does nothing for society. It's worse than crypto.

> Plenty of people want to gamble, and don't give a fuck of what you think they should or shouldn't do. And they are right: it's none of your fucking business.

Plenty of people want to rape kids, and it is our business to stop them. This argument is bunk.

A low level of gambling was okay because there was a controlled lever on it. Only a handful of casinos existed, and the government had the monopoly on the lottery program.

Now anyone can do it anytime. That is not good for our economy.

This is not a harmless activity. People are losing their financial well-being. Becoming addicted. Needing to fix their debt by becoming more in debt.

People getting exiting the workforce as productive members of society because they lose their shirt. That is not good for individuals or society.

We're damaging the robustness of our economy by allowing these entities to exist. They should be taxed at 100% of their gross revenue, and those funds should go to educating kids about statistics while they're young and impressionable.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#426

The real power in prediction markets is creating a market for what you want to occur - it's a tangible method to leverage hyperstition. If you want Polymarket to no longer exist, then simply create a pool for "Polymarket will no longer exist by Jan 1st 2027" on Kalshi, pump the price, and wait for one of these whales to do the job of making it come true for you. When done right, you get the satisfaction of the thing…

How? Some guy wants Polymarket gone so he bets $1 billion that it will be gone. Since this is absurd, everybody bets against him and makes a tidy profit. Whatever this is you’re proposing it doesn’t work.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#427

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

[dead]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#428
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

The UK? or Ireland? or USA?

Isn't it interesting that you can't tell!

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a fair point. But I'm not talking about the legitimacy (or not) of crypto. More that the president was (is?) running a pump and dump scheme. It should be profoundly embarrassing to supporters and it should be political suicide for the scammer. But it barely registered.

I feel like you missed the suggestions that the move (the shiiling and scamming) may have surved or been subborinate to an ulterior motive. By taking relatively low risk public position (from the guy making wildly innapropriate comments and taking wildly irresponsible actions seemingly daily) they are able to effectively spread FUD with regard to crypto. And that could have been motivated by a perceived threat by cry…

I feel like you're giving way too much credit here.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#430
post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Well, really, that's all countries. Some dude was willing to resort to more depraved measures than his rivals, and made enough people do what he wanted in order to become the leader.

All of the greatest societies champion their defeat of and superiority from people exactly like that.
Post reply on HN