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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#421

Post by ivape »

paxys wrote: post #197
cjbarber wrote: post #14

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

Microsoft is worth $4T, so if you buy one MSFT share only ~3% of that is invested in OpenAI. Even if OpenAI outperforms everyone's expectations (which at this point are already sky high), a tiny swing in some other Microsoft division will completely erase your gains.

Markets trade on a magical growth valuation. Nothing you said matters at all at the moment and won’t for about 5 or so years. People are going to eat shit over and over when they keep talking like this, just look at what NVDA did today. It’s not going to stop.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#423

Post by pinkmuffinere »

ivape wrote: post #421
paxys wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft is worth $4T, so if you buy one MSFT share only ~3% of that is invested in OpenAI. Even if OpenAI outperforms everyone's expectations (which at this point are already sky high), a tiny swing in some other Microsoft division will completely erase your gains.

Markets trade on a magical growth valuation. Nothing you said matters at all at the moment and won’t for about 5 or so years. People are going to eat shit over and over when they keep talking like this, just look at what NVDA did today. It’s not going to stop.

5 years is a pretty long time to predict with confidence. Definitely agree that "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", but 5 years would be unusually long if you believe we're already in a bubble.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#424

Post by yahoozoo »

vntok wrote: post #210
yahoozoo wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they can just introduce ads in ChatGPT responses, make $100 billion, and call that AGI?

No. When you're thinking about questions like these, it is useful to remember that multiple (probably dozens) professional A-grade lawyers have been paid considerable sums of actual money, by both sides, to think about possible loopholes and fix them.

What would you consider valid methods of generating $100 billion? Enough Max/Pro subscribers?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#425

Post by arresin »

jstummbillig wrote: post #168
jtbaker wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

C#/.NET are nice. Azure/Microsoft Cloud not so nice. Idk, maybe I have some bias due to familiarity, but I find the GCP admin and tools to be so much more intuitive than the Azure (and AWS too, for that matter) counterparts.

Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.

Any speculation on why none of them can make a UI and UX that is not 100% completely shit and makes you feel miserable and stressed out?

Couldn’t they just throw money at the problem? Or fire the criminals who designed it?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#426

Post by yousif_123123 »

saaaaaam wrote: post #388
yousif_123123 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I read that its valued at 500 billion based on their latest fund raise. I don't know the total holdings they have. I have no interest in crypto, just wanted to mention this which was surprising to me when I heard it.

For comparison Blackstone is worth ~$180bn with ~$1 trillion AUM. So somehow this crypto firm and its investor think it can get a better return than Blackstone with a fraction of the assets. Now, sure, developing market and all that. But really? If it scaled to Blackstone assets level of $1 trillion then you’d expect the platform valuation to scale, perhaps not in lockstep but at least somewhat. So with $1 trillion i…

Tether is projected to generate $15 billion in profits. So 500 billion is like a 33 times earnings multiple.

Now the main thing is how sustainable these earnings are and if they will continue to be a dominant player in stable coins and if there will continue to be demand for them.

Another difference to Blackstone is Tether takes 100% of the returns on the treasuries backing the coins, whereas Blackstone gets a small fee from AUM, and their goal is to make money for their investor clients.

If crypto wanted to really be decentralized they'd find a way to have stable coins backed by whatever assets where the returns of the assets still came to the stable coin holder, not some big centralized company.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#427

Post by [deleted] »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #423
ivape wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets trade on a magical growth valuation. Nothing you said matters at all at the moment and won’t for about 5 or so years. People are going to eat shit over and over when they keep talking like this, just look at what NVDA did today. It’s not going to stop.

5 years is a pretty long time to predict with confidence. Definitely agree that "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", but 5 years would be unusually long if you believe we're already in a bubble.

[deleted]

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#428

Post by alterom »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #384
whynotminot wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a friend who had his Tesla drive him from his driveway in another city 3+ hrs away to my driveway with no intervention. I feel like everyone’s opinion on how self-driving is going is still rooted in 2018 or something and no one has updated.

Rest assured, your friends driving was the same quality as the average drunk grandma on the road if they were exclusively using Tesla's "FSD" with no intervention for hours. It drives so piss poorly that I have to frequently intervene even on the latest beta software. If I lived in a shoot happy state like Texas I'm sure that a road rager would have put a bullet hole somewhere in my Tesla by now if I kept driving lik…

Yeah, and let's not forget that "I drive like a mildly blind idiot" is only a viable (literally) choice when everyone else doesn't do that and compensates for your idiocy.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#429

Post by alterom »

whynotminot wrote: post #269
alterom wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately. Just like self-driving is going well on an empty race track. >Good luck with that take Good luck running into a walking robot in the street in your lifetime.

> Just like self-driving is going well on an empty race track. Look, a time traveler from 2019.

Did you just graduate college?

It sure must feel like 2018 was a long time ago when that's more than the entirety of your adult life. I get it.

The rest of us aren't that excited to trust our lives to technology that confidently drove into a highway barrier at high speed, killing the driver in a head-on collision mere seven years ago¹.

Because we remember that the makers of that tech said the exact same things you're saying now back then.

And because we remember that the person killed was an engineer who complained about Tesla steering him towards the same barrier previously, and Tesla has, effectively, ignored the complaints.

Tech moves fast. Safety culture doesn't. And the last 1% takes 99% of the time (again, how long ago have you graduated?).

I'm glad that you and your friends are volunteering to be lab rats in the just trust me bro, we'll settle the lawsuit if needs be approach to safety.

I'm not happy about having to share the road with y'all tho.

______

¹https://abcnews.go.com/Business/tesla-autopilot-steered-driv...

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#430

Post by reducesuffering »

I loathe that creating a non-profit organization supposedly guided by a charter to "ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity." is actually about being a $500b company corporate capital ownership with million $ pay packages. I mean, it looks like you really can do whatever you want if you have the most $ for the best lawyers and the gumption to not give af.
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