Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

There were plenty of times to raise rates even before the Trump administration. But there were no major negative impacts until the COVID19 pandemic.

The point is it's easy for us to say this now. Had the pandemic not occurred we'd maybe still be in the position we were in 2019. You can argue for resiliency but you can't time the market. You could argue rates should've been raised in 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19. If you optimize too much for resiliency, then you overcorrect and cause recessions, which no one wants. And there'd be people just like you parroting how "i told you they shouldn't have raised rates!"

Now let's look at the facts. Despite sharp rate increases, the economy still grew last quarter, inflation has is normalizing, and the job market outside of tech is still robust. Frankly, hard to think of a better outcome. The asset inflation prior to COVID19 was slightly problematic. But the inflation we face now has less to do with that and more to do with demographic shifts and larger societal changes that needed a spark to begin.

I think I have the same type of brain as you. I say things all the time which to me are just obvious logic. And the reaction sometimes has been extremely bad.

I realized my “logic” brain scares the crap out of normies. I learned to ask other people for help with complex negotiations involving politics and emotion.

I realized I don’t process information the same as most people and this has been at the root of numerous career mistakes. Some of those mistakes were extremely damaging.

I recommend learning to run your decision making past people who are better in these areas than you. When it is a political issue especially. If you know you are not great at politics, you need to improve your decision making and avoid this problem in the future.

I learned after YEARS of stepping on landmines accidentally to be far more careful navigating internal politics. The costs of getting it wrong are devastating.

For example. If you indeed did the math and calculated (logically and truthfully) that management was a +7% increase in pay for a +13% increase in work that’s fine.

But if you used those exact words and numbers to a superior; they will view that as arrogant, selfish and entitled. Because their view is you should want to be the best you can be for the company and make a personal sacrifice to show you want the company to do well. That is basic “salary man 101” and doing the opposite of that (analyzing the exact math) is putting a target on your back as a “free thinking non team player individualist.” It’s career lethal to get that label

I suspect you may have a lot more Aspergers than you realize. Or maybe it’s a generational culture thing. And the most irritating thing about people who are on the spectrum is the refusal to introspect and self reflect about it.

I tried to coach a co worker who was similar. Dude was angering everyone. All the time. He didn’t want to hear that he had a problem.

I strongly recommend developing friends you can run these decisions by. It was literally a life saver for me. I realized I was like a blind person wandering around with a cane when it came to navigating politics and needed watch dogs who could analyze the situation for me so I didn’t blow my leg off.

In terms of this situation. It sounds like you did not prepare well for a long term career discussion. That is an extreme red flag. And didn’t take it seriously that a higher level authority was asking you for your plan.

You were being checked on whether you have a future at the organization. You failed.

I have failed these tests myself. I was late to a critical call with a VP. It ended my career. It showed lack of care or preparation and a lack of respect.

One late meeting ended my career.

I can’t blame you. If you are hyper logical in your mind you we’re probably just telling them that “2+2=4.”

The entire political career metagame that normies play does not have anything to do with logic. I personally don’t like it either.

It may also be generational. A GenZ who plans to coast and just get a paycheck while turning in a solid 30% effort might have given the same answer you did.

Some Aspergers dude wouldn’t know that this is career ending as an impression to give: “my plan is to do the minimum ser.” Is what your skip level hears.

It wasn’t what you said it was what they heard.

“I love the company and support you and want to grow into doing more, I’m so optimistic of the future.” That’s what they want to hear.

If you want to coast, at least say what I just said and give that impression. And you can probably carve out a way to mostly get left alone and negotiate your wants and workload. Or negotiate a project that allows you to coast. But holy shit don’t start doing comparative math on working hours versus pay.

Your company might not be doing well. If you don’t know that (they might not even tell you), they may really have needed you to do more.

I recommend working on your likability also.

Suspect your delivery and demeanor are just labeling you as an Aspergers robot.

Companies will tolerate incompetent, lazy, shiftless, unambitious workers who are positive, pleasant, non threatening, supportive, not “too smart,” keep their mouths shut, not crafty or aggressive. They will tolerate that forever. In fact they love it.

I suspect your demeanor and likability are bad. It starts with how you enter every discussion. Keep things light and funny. Never criticize, complain, bicker over hours or workloads.

Negotiate for what you want and have a clear plan and do it lightly and in a gentle way and watch the demeanor of those around you.

Doing Aspergers math on how much work they want you to do versus how much work you feel like doing: Holy shit. Don’t make that mistake again. That was me. Get a clue, learn to softened and likable. Don’t be logical. They hate that and they will hate you.

Be optimistic and clueless and get your job done.

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> Apple routinely files hundreds of patents (any major company does that). It doesn't mean those patents will end up as a shippable product.

Analysts have a good track record of predicting what Apple is about to release including specs. Stop pretending that it hasn’t happened on a regular basis over the years.

> Of course they are not

No. We have AR and VR devices that have shipped and sold in the millions. Those are facts whether or you decide to accept them.

> Of course they haven't. There's literally no battery + cpu + gpu tech that you can put in an AR device lightweight enough for extended use.

It already has existed in the form of 3rd party magnetically switchable batteries. It’s been selling on Amazon for at least two years now. As for the headset capable of doing this, 10-20 million have already been sold. Just because you’re not aware of it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

> The rest are bulky and heavy. Because you cannot bullshit your way out of physics and biology by pretending "this has been solved".

Waiting for incremental improvements to happen is very different from being impossible to do. This is not a hard concept to understand. Again, these are shipped devices and not vaporware. You keep claiming that some law of physics or biology makes this impossible to accomplish yet you still can’t name a specific law that prohibits progress ie you’re full of it

> There's objective reality and there's wishful thinking

Yeah there’s wishful thinking on your part pretending that you’re not ignorant of the subject, but the facts are in my side.

It's easy to say now change policy in the throes of the COVID pandemic. But in reality this move would've created economic shock on top of a supply shock and during a public health crisis. That simply isn't sound and is extremely reactive. And it's hard to say this would've had any impact at all on inflation, which was tied to factors external to fed policy.

The fed should be cautious by making any changes. I believe the fact they didn't rush to judgement has led to a much better than normal situation.

> Inflation began spiking in late 2020 / early 2021.

If by late 2020 / early 2021 you mean April (Q2), then sure. Pretty broad range there when there wasn't spikes in inflation until then.

20/20 in hindsight. A lot of people saying they should've done X or Y. It's easy to say that from behind the desk commenting on HN, all due respect.

> I'm also of the opinion this will spread into the broader economy later this year and the full cost of the Feds mistake has not yet been felt.

I've been hearing this all year from certain political entities. Maybe your blind squirrel will find a nut this year, but so far all the doomsday predictions have continually gotten pushed back. The job market is extremely strong, growth was still strong. If we go into a slight recession, I have to ask, so what?