Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#421

Post by Tempest1981 » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 9:32 AM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #130

bryanlarsen wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reiterated guidance was for 360,000 - 400,000 cars. Tesla still doesn't want to sell $35K 3's, they've still got huge delays on those. And of course there's soft demand for $55K 3's, $85K S's and $100K X's in a market that includes $35K 3's. It's the mix of $35K 3's they sell that indicates demand while they're production constrained, and that number is still essentially zero, so I'm still confident they can sell…

disclaimer, I own a TM3 LR With regards to the 35k TM3, the SR+ is such a superior deal that its a wonder they can make money on it. However for those in the market for any car, if less an five percent difference is make or break you are already in the wrong price range. What is interesting that the Bolt, Soul, Niro, and Kona, are all priced the same or higher than a SR with models exceeding even the SR+. I think Tes…

I found this page to help decode the acronym overload:

https://insideevs.com/teslas-confusing-price-changes-adjustm...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#422

Post by loceng » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 10:26 AM UTC

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

It would be easy to, and in a sleek way, integrate those limited requested number of controls all in a small row; I can't see it adding more than a few hundred dollars to the cost of each vehicle either - perhaps making it optional.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#423

Post by manicdee » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 10:51 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #340

ajross wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point was more that Tesla has already scaled beyond the level where "these companies know how to build cars" is reasonable spin. Tesla's building plenty of cars, making money doing so, scaling rapidly, and can only be expected to be doing better still by the time those competitors arrive in the market. That's not to say that they won't be highly competetive cars, they might (I for one certainly hope they are). Bu…

They still have only 1! factory. Compared to any almost any other automotive manufacturer that is a bespoke operation.

They have greater capacity to build batteries than any other car manufacturer.

They have a greater propensity to build BEVs than any other car manufacturer, since they are all dependent on dealerships who live and die on income from servicing ICE vehicles.

There is not going to be any rapid change to BEVs from established manufacturers. It will be all talk, no action until the last dealership closes down.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#424

Post by jacques_chester » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 11:39 AM UTC

xedeon wrote: post #412

jacques_chester wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many Toyota Corollas did you count? Or F-150s?

Let's keep moving the goalpost and changing the topic. :) But I'll indulge you since you need a quick history lesson. Toyota: Founded: August 28, 1937 Ford Founded: June 16, 1903 Tesla Motors: Founded: July 1, 2003 So what's your point exactly?

If I go looking for zebras, I will notice them. But that doesn't make them common.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#425

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 11:43 AM UTC

legitster wrote: post #287

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Mazda developed their physical controls by blindfolding testers and making sure they could use everything on touch alone. In comparison, Tesla's approach of putting everything in a single touchscreen is a cost cutting measure being sold as trendy BS. And dangerous to boot.

Everything is not in a single touchscreen though. There are plenty of buttons and other physical controls within reach of muscle memory.

Amazed how many people keep repeating this misconception.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#426

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 11:50 AM UTC

philwelch wrote: post #325

ajross wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement was about industrial scaling. Arguments based on fit and finish and market preference are sort of a different thing.

Failing to maintain product quality is an indicator of inability to scale.

The quality has gotten much better though.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#427

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 12:01 PM UTC

rohit2412 wrote: post #363

xkjkls wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

> There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US That seems too little for 1400 worldwide. This image says 447 in USA. https://www.theatlas.com/charts/BJak7NcSz Any source for 119?

>Any source for 119?

Looks like it’s just FUD. Appears it came from Wikipedia which clearly states that it was a 2014 figure, but OP conveniently forgot to note that their figure was severely out of date.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#428

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 12:05 PM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #337

matthewdgreen wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another Tesla owner here. For me everything you say sounds convincing until I look at the Supercharging network. From my perspective every single issue you mention is a valid point; it's just that Tesla's nationwide (in North America) supercharging network is worth 5,000 points. When other manufacturers solve this problem (and Tesla hasn't met their quality standards) those manufacturers will be an option.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

>There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US.

That’s an old figure from 2014. Five years ago. The number has already done a couple of doublings since then and is set to double again in the next year or so.

So much ignorance about Tesla here. It is really disappointing.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#429

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 12:09 PM UTC

rohit2412 wrote: post #364

matthewdgreen wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if everyone started planning tomorrow, you'd be optimistically looking at a couple of years before this hypothetical new charging network began to be useful. That makes your car useless for a large fraction of its lifespan. Whereas Tesla's charging network exists today. (And I would add that I've heard nothing serious about a plan like this being in the works, so it may in fact be several years away if it ever h…

https://www.electrifyamerica.com/locate-charger Some of them are for charging at 350KW, current Tesla Supercharger's top out at 150KW, and the next gen targets 250KW..

Real chargers are always better than vaporware chargers though, regardless of promised numbers.

And the number of chargers in the network matters.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#430

Post by natch » Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 12:27 PM UTC

ody4242 wrote: post #301

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

In my opinion, the Supercharger port (and the junction box) is way more advanced, compact, and cheaper than a CCS port. The Tesla onboard charger is clever enough to sense that it's connected to a DC charger, so they can use the same pins for AC and DC charging. Otoh, the CCS is a bulky connector + the germans were clever enough to add the PLC protocol as well, to make it even more complex and expensive. Don't get me…

It’s not proprietary in the sense that the offer has been made for any car company to use the same connector technology (and even the supercharger network) royalty free. No car companies have taken Tesla up on this offer. The ones that expressed interest wanted Tesla to make needless changes... but part of the deal with Tesla offering the tech is that it has to be done in a way that does not burn extra engineering time for the Tesla team... so the requested changes would not fly.