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Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

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Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#421

Post by snovv_crash »

Spooky23 wrote: post #76
itg wrote: post #7

The numbers coming out of Apple next quarter will be interesting. iPhone 7 has been underwhelming and reception to the latest MacBooks Pros has been mostly negative. And if sales are on a downhill trajectory, I wonder what the response inside of Apple will be.

I thought the same thing about the MacBook because of what you hear in the tech echo chamber. The reality is that I t's mostly bullshit -- the notebooks have been selling extremely well. The disgruntled "pro" audience is mostly bullshit. Intel isn't focusing very well on his category of product. Most of the PC OEMs have similar challenges -- faster laptops are bigger, have worse battery life and usually shittier scre…

The "tech echo chamber" is really the discussion of the market leaders. It won't affect sales this generation, but look for reduced sales next generation, and the bottom to fall out the generation after that unless Apple really shakes up their development model.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#422

Post by tdkl »

xorxornop wrote: post #415
tdkl wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a Windows user and love iTunes. There's just isn't any piece of software that lets me sync all my selected playlists with a single click via Wifi to Android (iSyncr app) reliably. I can also use a remote to navigate (Retune app) and access whole library. Too bad there's no other contenders on Linux as well, there's a million players, but no syncing because apparently it makes more sense in 2016 to sync a song wit…

Uh, you could just sync the playlists (and the music, too, if you wanted) to Google Drive or Dropbox. Drive is the better option if you want integration. Google Play Music (or any other music app) will then pick up the synced playlists

> apparently it makes more sense in 2016 to sync a song with uploading it to an other computer (teh cloud™) then download it back instead of copying it locally within 1m of proximity.

From the original post.

Been there done that, waiting in a full sport gear in the room for a playlist to sync going around the fucking planet while being 1m apart.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#423

Post by manigandham »

saurik wrote: post #212
jblow wrote: post #93

Usually I have upgraded, but I currently have no intention of buying an iPhone 7 or later, unless they fix something! For me it's a double whammy. I don't like the lack of headphone jack, and whereas I feel like I could manage grumpily ... for me it kills the excitement of buying the new device, and I think that is important. (My standard listening headphones are Etymotic ER-4Ps; there is no way I am going to downgra…

> They need to get rid of 3D touch, get rid of double-tap one-hand accessibility mode whatever it's called, get rid of weird swipes from the edge, fix the horrible inconsistencies in the way autocorrect works... This is the same bullshit Apple has been doing with Mac OS X. I'm typing away in the terminal, doing something extremely productive, and suddenly my UI locks up for a second and I realize "shit, I must have a…

As a 1-week user of the iPhone 7, 3D touch has been the only new thing I really like. The apps I use seem to have made good use of it to improve UX, even though the rest of iOS seems is bulky and slow now.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#424

Post by adamlett »

snovv_crash wrote: post #419
adamlett wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but having already invested goodwill and money in Lighting, the benefits of switching to USB-C would have to be substantial before it makes sense for Apple to do so. To reality is that for most of Apple's users, USB-C offers no discernible advantage and quite a few disadvantages (having to buy new cables and peripherals again ).

>USB-C offers no discernible advantage Well, besides being able to charge your phone from your laptop charger, use the same USB flash drive in your phone and laptop without an adapter, use the same powered noise-cancelling headphones in your laptop and phone, connect your phone to your projector/monitor/TV using the same adapter as the laptop, and so many more.

So, there are some benefits if you already have other devices that use USB-C. Most people don't however. Not yet. What people do have, is tons of crap that is Lighting compatible.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#425

Post by [deleted] »

snovv_crash wrote: post #419
adamlett wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but having already invested goodwill and money in Lighting, the benefits of switching to USB-C would have to be substantial before it makes sense for Apple to do so. To reality is that for most of Apple's users, USB-C offers no discernible advantage and quite a few disadvantages (having to buy new cables and peripherals again ).

>USB-C offers no discernible advantage Well, besides being able to charge your phone from your laptop charger, use the same USB flash drive in your phone and laptop without an adapter, use the same powered noise-cancelling headphones in your laptop and phone, connect your phone to your projector/monitor/TV using the same adapter as the laptop, and so many more.

[deleted]

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#426

Post by erdevs »

aeontech wrote: post #399
erdevs wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article isn't talking about quarter over quarter growth, but year over year. Quarterly sales will likely decline, as they do most every year in the period and as is perfectly natural for this market. The story is that year-over-year growth may be lower than expected and that iPhone 7 component orders are being trimmed down.

I don't see anything in the article that says it's a 10% cut compared to last year, but maybe I missed it, can you clarify?

"Apple will trim production of its iPhone family around 10% on the year in the first quarter of 2017... This comes after the company slashed output in January-March 2016."

Along with the context that there is absolutely no news here if this is merely a dip in production from Oct-Dec to Jan-March as holiday sales are always high and then dip down significantly after January. The year-over-year trend is what matters.

Further context to back this up, from the USA Today article on this same story: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales of its iPhone would decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the first time in fifteen years. Meanwhile, fourth quarter iPhone shipments were down 5% from the same time last year."

It's a year-over-year trend, which is relatively unexpected, not quarter-over-quarter which is absolutely expected in this period.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#427

Post by erdevs »

argonaut wrote: post #209
erdevs wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Effects don't necessarily show up in the following quarter. Moreover, it's an overstatement to say there is no relationship. iPhone sales growth slowed dramatically following previous periods where supply chain order cuts were reported (eg in Jan'13 it was reported that Apple cut orders for iPhone 5 screens and subsequently actual growth did indeed slow dramatically). There seems to be a clear relationship between so…

No, it's not an overstatement. If half the time the prediction turns out not to be true, then there is no relationship - you may as well flip a coin.

The parent claim was that there is no relationship, but they haven't backed that claim up. Unless someone does, it's an overstatement, especially in light of evidence that these reports (from well-reputed financial news institutions, not random internet rumors) do regularly turn out to be indicative of future performance (and no presently provided evidence to the contrary).

This new supply chain story also appears to be indicative of a true underlying trend in actuals as well, just as the previously cited one was. From the USA Today article on this same news: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales of its iPhone would decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the first time in fifteen years. Meanwhile, fourth quarter iPhone shipments were down 5% from the same time last year."

So, that's likey 2 for 2...

If you have a more rigorous analysis to back up the claim that there is no relationship historically between well-sourced reports by well-reputed and widely read financial news operations about iPhone supply chain dynamics to subsequent sales trends, then please provide it. If instead it was just an assertion from air, then it is an overstatement. One could reasonably say that the relationship is unclear. Or that it's hard to say how these reports relate to subsequent actuals. Or even that there are instances (if you can provide them) where these sorts of reports turn out to belie the trend in actuals. But saying flat out that there is no relationship meets the exact definition of overstatement unless it's backed-up.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#428

Post by erdevs »

pg314 wrote: post #285
erdevs wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear what you're saying, but I am not sure you're interpreting the supply chain order implications correctly. You are assuming a 1 to 1 ratio of expected vs actual component supply order volumes and subsequent net sales. That is not at all how it typically works, and while I agree the WSJ could have and should have been more clear on this: the point of the article wasn't that the iPhone would sell half as much as A…

You are right that you can construct a scenario where e.g. screen components could have been cut by half. Thanks for typing it out. The WSJ article, though, attributes the cuts in component orders to weaker iPhone demand: 'because of weaker-than-expected demand'. That's my beef with their reporting. If they had just stated 'one of Apple's suppliers has got its order reduced by half', I would have no problem with the…

Thanks for the reply and I agree with you (and Tim Cook!) on not overextrapolating from such stories. A couple points:

> The WSJ article, though, attributes the cuts in component orders to weaker iPhone demand: 'because of weaker-than-expected demand

In the hypothetical scenario I outlined, the reduction in component orders is literally due to "weaker-than-expected demand". In that scenario, they forecast needing, say, 41M screens but really only ended up selling 35M phones. It's off by less than 20% of forecost demand (and it still represents significant growth!), but it's still weaker than expected and that relatively small miss on expectations could easily result in a component order reduction of 50% or more due to inventory overhang and myriad other potential supply chain factors.

So, it'd be wrong to conclude that Apple's forecast was literally 50% off from this story... But that's not what they said and it is an incorrect assumption to presume a 1:1 relationship between component supply order cuts and subsequent sales actuals.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#429

Post by spronkey »

johnny22 wrote: post #330
spronkey wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would annoy me a lot less if Apple (and the rest of them, to be honest) didn't just change stuff for the sake of change. Like oh hey, let's change four finger swipe up gesture to not be a toggle. Just because. Or, oh hey, let's just remove your battery life indicator. Ugh. Makes me scared to update anything.

Is it really just because? I've seen this mentioned before, but there must be some reason right? I've never owned an iPhone (or any i* devices), so I have no experience here, but aren't the folks at Apple likely to do stuff for a reason? Or are things really that bad?

I try very hard to understand why they do some things, and come up short. With a lot of the minor UI tweaks, it's certainly not based on any real-world research, because some of the tweaks go against what's already established or being published in journals.

They probably do have reasons, but as to what they are, no idea. And as to whether their reasons are beneficial to the user, in many cases I can say no, absolutely not.

Re: Apple to slice iPhone production 10% due to sluggish sales

#430

Post by spronkey »

jblow wrote: post #93

Usually I have upgraded, but I currently have no intention of buying an iPhone 7 or later, unless they fix something! For me it's a double whammy. I don't like the lack of headphone jack, and whereas I feel like I could manage grumpily ... for me it kills the excitement of buying the new device, and I think that is important. (My standard listening headphones are Etymotic ER-4Ps; there is no way I am going to downgra…

I read your comment soon after you posted it and sort of nodded internally, but over the last two days I've been actively noting how often I'm making a slip (i.e. through accidental 3D touch, or accidental swipe or whatever).

I think the 20% is actually pretty damn close to what my real error rate is, which astounded me. Even just stuff like initiating a scroll, I'm finding that I've started subconsciously ignoring the accidental 3D touch activations. I thought it would have been maybe 5%.

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