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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#411

Post by Dah00n »

LoKSET wrote: post #402
nwatson wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They haven't yet forced conscription. There's plenty of manpower available to Russia through this very unpopular measure. If pressed they'll do it, the question will be whether Putin survives the young people of Moscow and St Petersburg joining the meat waves.

They haven't because this might actually finally wake up at least part of the people and cause problems for Dear leader. Let's hope Trump doesn't fold immediately and give the situation more time to develop.

Time equals worse lack of manpower for Ukraine. Time is on Russia's side as it is.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#412

Post by xenospn »

sandmn wrote: post #345
TheAlchemist wrote: post #5

I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there…

In the previous active phase of war in Syria Hezbollah was one of the main Assad supporters that provided manpower. They are extremely weakened right now, so in a way rebels can thank Israel for indirect help.

Pretty sure they were waiting for Hezbollah to hit rock bottom (i.e. ceasefire).

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#413

Post by Dah00n »

stogot wrote: post #315
ralfd wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still no proof for North Korean soldiers at the front and pro-russian bloggers make fun of it in ironic memes. I now think it was either only a few North Korean officers or it was just Ukrainian propaganda to justify more western support.

I recall seeing western nations corroborate the evidence. Trains out of North Korea into Russia follow one path and are easy to monitor.

I don't doubt it is true, but "western nations corroborate the evidence" also happened in "Saddam has nukes" and lots of other situations in history.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#415

Post by Dah00n »

beretguy wrote: post #264
TheAlchemist wrote: post #5

I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there…

> it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all Easy. Because russia is all talk and no do. If you punch russia in the face it folds in half.

Another armchair general that has never met a single Russian.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#416

Post by aguaviva »

someotherperson wrote: post #122
20kleagues wrote: post #111

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

“Actual Syrians” isn’t a thing for this — it’s like wanting to hear from ‘actual Americans’ what they thought of the US election. Depending on the ethnicity, religion and politics of those Syrians you’ll get wildly different views.

Wrong-o, man.

Talking to actual people is the magical, indispendible ingredient you need in your analysis.

Of course they're quite often biased. That's not the point. But at least you get a human perspective. And even when they're biased, it turns out that "actual people" are usually far less intellectualized and rigidly ideological than the stuff you'll read online. And when they do have an axe to grind, usually there's at least a story behind it ("my family went through this") that you can at least incorporate into your dataset.

And the more actual people you talk to, the more you get to triangulate. Plus, they sometimes invite you into their house for really awesome food.

But if all one does is soak up online narratives and analysis (and worst off all, the crap that thinktanks typically put out, even when they're mostly on the right side) -- one basically becomes a language model.

Full of facts, but knowing nothing.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#417

Post by xenospn »

sincerecook wrote: post #371

Why are we cheering this? Is it because Russia supported Assad and now Russia has been defeated? Because we love Ukraine right? Also, Assad and Russia don't like LGBT persons? Can someone spell it out for me in plain words please, I'm on the spectrum.

The Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist for decades. They imprisoned, bombed and killed hundreds of thousands of their own people.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#418

Post by Dah00n »

phsau wrote: post #293
GordonS wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There hasn't been a single scrap of evidence to support the claims of Russia using North Korean... there have however been several cases of the media getting caught lying about it, doctoring photos etc: https://x.com/AXChristoforou/status/1864324321960972298?t=4H... https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1864447294474457245?t=yK0OU-9... The North Korean claims appear to be complete lies, designed to make Russia look bad.

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/39... The DoD says North Korean soldiers are already in Kursk and preparing? News of NK armament deliveries and use is old at this point and not debatable. Is the DoD spreading fake news? Just because they haven't seen front-line combat _in Ukraine_ doesn't mean Russia isn't using NK assets.

I believe NK soldiers are there, by I'd trust even Putin more than US sources. After all, they only state what is in their interest. Exactly like Putin.

Maybe NK will use Saddam's nukes against Ukraine...

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#419

Post by xg15 »

Etherlord87 wrote: post #405
fardo wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is 1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players, 2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and 3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals? The point to rebut…

Love the "first derivative" view! One can take a snapshot of a good day, but if russia really was producing more weapons than USA + NATO for a prolonged time, having also more people, Ukraine would fall a long time ago. It didn't. As we say in Poland "paper will accept everything". And russia is known for shameless propaganda.

So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. At some point, that momentum would have to reverse.

Also, I don't think it's an "until" about China stepping in, they seem to be squarely on Russia's side, just presenting themselves slightly more moderate in public to appear suitable as a mediator. (Maybe sort of like the US does with Israel)

Finally, there is BRICS and some massive shifts of attitude in Africa that seem to work in Russia's favor.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#420

Post by tim333 »

Etherlord87 wrote: post #403
fooker wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it. It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

I agree with this. russia is being lured into continued commitment by giving it a chance. I'm unusually impressed with how American intelligence played russia in this conflict. Of course there's another reason: russia is a nuclear power, and even though everyone seems used to its threats and makes nothing of it, a nuclear war is an absolutely terrible threat, possibly wiping entire humanity if it fails to endure nucl…

Israel and Ukraine are rather different in that it is hard to have much sympathy for Russia as they are the ones who chose to invade and they could go home any time they get fed up. The palestinians don't have that option.

Personally I think the west should have been firmer early on that the Russian invasion was unacceptable and they should go or be forced out. Instead they were kind of wishy washy.

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