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Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#411

Post by Kranar »

DeathArrow wrote: post #359
logifail wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response. One could be really cynical and reduce it to: some people get lucky, some of the time. That's all. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/06317e0e-b6bf-4fdc-9255-cf664cb92... ( https://archive.ph/NumMp )

>Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response. Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigmas are just two examples of firms that constantly beat the market using math, algorithms and machine learning. It's doable, but not easy.

It's silly to say Two Sigma consistently beat the market. They have multiple funds and only one of their numerous funds (Two Sigma Enhanced Compass) has managed to outperform the S&P 500 over a 5 year period, the rest have significantly underperformed.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#412

Post by moultano »

wonderwonder wrote: post #361
moultano wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once Amazon decides that the prospects for continuing to invest in growing their business are lower, they will start paying dividends. In the meantime Microsoft and Apple already do.

So the hope that eventually the powers that be at Amazon will feel magnanimous at an undetermined date in the future is what makes it not a pyramid scheme at the moment?

What makes it not a pyramid scheme is that by owning the stock you own part of Amazon, and Amazon makes money by providing a service to users. The inflow of money comes from the users of its product, not future suckers.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#413

Post by etataetaet »

simonh wrote: post #351
jeromegv wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing the stock market crash to LUNA/UST crash is not the same thing. Luna went from $100 to 1 cent. UST was also meant to be a stable coin, it was sold as being equivalent to stacking your money in a savings account, just stable currency that follows the USD value. Lots of people took their money OUT of many coins, and moved it to UST for "stability" thinking that their nest was safe during the storm. (Of course…

LUNA going down is the equivalent of a single stock collapsing, and a fairly minor one at that. OP is right, this is a generalised withdrawal of equity from volatile investments of all kinds. Exactly the same thing happened with the last market crash.

Wasn't LUNA in the top 10 coins? If so that seems like a big deal. That would be like Coca Cola going to zero.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#414

Post by conorcleary »

capableweb wrote: post #394
epolanski wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? Are we really comparing the two markets? Owning a stock means owning a piece of a business. If you have all the stock in the world, you seized all means of production, good job. If you own all the UnpossibleJimCoins in the world what exactly has changed? Oh but that coin is not insert another coin , it doesn't have the consensus/cult.

> Owning a stock means owning a piece of a business That is clearly not true. What you own, is something worth X amount of Y, where Y is what other believe it is worth. "Means of production" has a very specific meaning and what you're saying is not it.

Branching off, what I feel is more important is that in brokers like Robinhood you don't even OWN the underlying security of your investment; you're renting it. Not even that... you're being lied to about owning it.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#415

Post by seydor »

IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

this came off as sincere, so congrats. Most of the things that offer us value are not paid for that. Most of the internet runs on PHP

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#416

Post by naravara »

TameAntelope wrote: post #139
joecot wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.

I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky. Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme"…

I guarantee you all the institutional investors and big finance invested in crypto absolutely do know better, and they know they have better quality information and the ability to respond to it faster than the masses of "retail" investors. So they will be on the winning end of the bubble burst at the expense of the schmucks on Twitter.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#417

Post by junofan »

DeathArrow wrote: post #339
UnpossibleJim wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

>I don't see a huge amount of difference in crypto except for physical assets, which don't cover the stock price for public companies, generally. Stocks represent part of real businesses which produce real goods or real services. So they are tangible. Crypto are just some bits somewhere. They don't represent anything meaningful.

Well, unless we’re talking about shares in a SPAC, which is a few pieces of paper filed with the State of Delaware’s Division of Corporations…

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#418

Post by camillomiller »

munificent wrote: post #392
IAmWorried wrote: post #9

It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…

Here is my weird tin foil hat theory that explains, like, a lot of what's been going in the world in the past twenty years. A significant fraction of young single men feel a deep compulsion to indulge in risky behavior with a potential high reward in order to make a name for themselves or earn their place in society. I don't know if it's genetic, cultural, both. But for many young dudes, it's not enough to simply wor…

I like this theory. Probably oversimplifying a lot of elements, but it can walk at least a bit. Kudos.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#419

Post by bobsmooth »

jotm wrote: post #12
devKnight wrote: post #5

NFTs are basically tulip mania and beanie babies all over again. I've been wondering when it would crash, didn't expect it to happen this quickly. NFTs i mean.

Did anyone actually buy NFTs or was it just a bunch of people saying "this is worth X"?

As an example, Stonetoss' NFT sale had 1500 buyers across 5000 flurks.

Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?

#420

Post by conorcleary »

epolanski wrote: post #379
UnpossibleJim wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…

> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? Are we really comparing the two markets? Owning a stock means owning a piece of a business. If you have all the stock in the world, you seized all means of production, good job. If you own all the UnpossibleJimCoins in the world what exactly has changed? Oh but that coin is not insert another coin , it doesn't have the consensus/cult.

Relevant XKCD - https://xkcd.com/927
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