Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

Post by tim333 » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:00 PM UTC

WA wrote: post #401

dboreham wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because in the context of regulations, they don't claim it to be self-driving.

Which I don't understand. Marketing is part of what makes the product. You can't simply promise stuff on your website and then put something else in the fine print. If you market the thing as (almost) self-driving, then the fine-print doesn't really matter. It is about customer expectations. Most regulated products require post market surveillance. You have to actively monitor the market and how consumers behave. If…

Post by tim333 » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:07 PM UTC

bob1029 wrote: post #101

caditinpiscinam wrote: post #70

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

This is the point that bothers me the most. Everyone is so fixated on the things they can see and talk about (i.e. regulate). The complex mountain of software running on these cars is the entire bucket of liability. How do you mandate software quality? I don't think testing alone is enough if you seriously care about safety. Any test can be gamed as tesla has aptly demonstrated so far.

Post by stavros » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:17 PM UTC

belter wrote: post #339

contravariant wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

Again the old tricks, from "How To Lie With Statistics." I get you a perfect Sample around age, income, sex, nationality, times of day and others. Prove to you 98% of people in this Town love Romantic Comedies. The only thing I am not telling you, is that I am running the Inquiry at the exit atrium door of a Romantic Comedy movie...

Post by faeyanpiraat » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:21 PM UTC

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

Post by tim333 » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:23 PM UTC

spywaregorilla wrote: post #140

dboreham wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the downvotes are because most people would be apprehensive about putting their life in the hands of an "average" safe driver that's built from software? I probably wouldn't allow any other average safe human to drive me, if the alternative of me driving myself is available.

You never take ubers on the grounds of safety? Because that is, on average, an average human. Either way, I'm not too impressed. I wouldn't purchase Autopilot personally for similar safety reasons. But let's not twist the stats to suggest they're actually much worse than they are.