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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#411

Post by _ph_ »

99_00 wrote: post #104
mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

So basically German "failure", but global success? And everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?

As a German, I don't consider this a failure. Yes, it was expensive, and probably it was more expensive than it needed to because execution wasn't perfect, but this year up today, Germany has produced 51% of the electricity via renewable sources. And of course Germany gets the same cost savings as anyone else when moving further forward with renewables. Also the guaranteed high prices for solar and wind from the early years are currently slowly running out, so currently those costs are falling quickly and the true cost saving of more renewables will be effective in the electricity prices in Germany.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#412

Post by jl6 »

ashtonkem wrote: post #377
dsr_ wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Saudi needs to do one of two things before the oil runs out: 1) Diversify their economy 2) Build up enough sovereign wealth to maintain their citizens standard of living after the oil has run out. The first is very hard, because huge percentages of their population are completely disengaged from the economy. It's estimated that 30-40% of working age adults neither have a job, nor are looking for one. An unusually hig…

Wow, what do Saudis do all day?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#413

Post by XorNot »

ampdepolymerase wrote: post #397
ashtonkem wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi needs to do one of two things before the oil runs out: 1) Diversify their economy 2) Build up enough sovereign wealth to maintain their citizens standard of living after the oil has run out. The first is very hard, because huge percentages of their population are completely disengaged from the economy. It's estimated that 30-40% of working age adults neither have a job, nor are looking for one. An unusually hig…

Why isn't anyone studying the Arabic states as UBI models? Incompatibility with western democracy? They are the closest to a large scale UBI system right now. Much bigger than those toy hundred people sort-of-UBI-but-not-really experiments.

Because they're not UBI, they're featherbedded kleptocracies. Everything keeps running provided they have the income to maintain the corruption and trickle down at every level to the officials who expect a varying scale of bribes and kickbacks.

The system though ultimately is designed to ensure wealth flows upwards to the top, not to actually build a capitalist economy with a guaranteed minimum living standard.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#415

Post by _ph_ »

xyzzyz wrote: post #135
WalterBright wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had power outages for a week more than once, and can vouch for it staying warm enough for a comfortable shower for a couple days. For HVAC, you can heat/cool it at a minimum to the edge of the comfort range, which will make a big difference. You can take it much further by heating/cooling some thermal mass, and drawing on that mass when the electricity is cheaper. That mass can simply be a pile of stones in a bo…

Water has really good thermal mass already. I think that adding huge water tanks in basements would be pretty beneficial: if the water in those tanks is operated in closed cycle, minerals from water wouldn't accumulate, and if we used rust proof materials, they tanks could last for the lifetime of the house. Then, we could use them to store heat in winter and cold in summer, when electricity is cheap.

There were concept houses in Germany, where they had a water tank of 6 cubic meters which was heated through the summer via thermal solar collectors and stored enough energy for the house heating in the winter (and even in the winter the collectors would collect heat on sunny days).

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#416

Post by _ph_ »

throwaway201103 wrote: post #80
WalterBright wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have cheap "batteries" in our homes. Run the electric water heater when the power is cheap. Water in the tank stays hot for a couple days. The only piece missing here is an internet-connected thermostat for the tank that inquires about the spot price for electricity and turns on when it's cheap. The same thing applies to your HVAC system.

You're exaggerating a bit. Water heater will stay hot for a day or so, but will rapidly cool when you start using it and cold water flows in. House will be uncomfortably cold after a few hours in the wintertime if the heat is not running, and it's not really practical to overheat it when electric rates are low/free because you can only go maybe 10 degrees before it's really too warm for comfort. You'd need a heat tan…

The obvious solution is not to let cold water flow into the water heater unless you have the electricity to heat it - and if needed make it a bit larger so there is more buffering capacity.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#417

Post by yourapostasy »

ampdepolymerase wrote: post #397
ashtonkem wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi needs to do one of two things before the oil runs out: 1) Diversify their economy 2) Build up enough sovereign wealth to maintain their citizens standard of living after the oil has run out. The first is very hard, because huge percentages of their population are completely disengaged from the economy. It's estimated that 30-40% of working age adults neither have a job, nor are looking for one. An unusually hig…

Why isn't anyone studying the Arabic states as UBI models? Incompatibility with western democracy? They are the closest to a large scale UBI system right now. Much bigger than those toy hundred people sort-of-UBI-but-not-really experiments.

> Why isn't anyone studying the Arabic states as UBI models?

Perceived cultural differences, possibly leading to more interesting, uncomfortable parallels than many would like. On the ground in the kingdom, in the field, there is an enormous cultural bias towards status, and low-status jobs are shunned. This is made more complex because of a subtle, more recent cultural bias that emerged from having foreigners perform almost all the work for so long, and foreigners in Wahhabi faith as it is practically practiced (in theory it is different) are considered inferior in an unenlightened sense. A halo effect emerged around private jobs, and now any job at all that used to be performed by foreigners is considered low(er) status.

This is changing rapidly and gaining steam in numbers at the margins with many younger generations. I've met some incredibly brilliant, young KSA native engineers. Many are working hard to reverse the rot the Resource Curse visited upon the kingdom.

However, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss that kingdom's experience as unique to it, saying that does not apply to America or many other developed nations. Considering the penchant for superficial solutions, get-rich-quick adulation, and de facto class stratifications in all developed nations, I'm not sanguine a UBI would elicit much better results than a Resource Curse. Norway is an exception that proves the rule, from what I've seen so far.

And I wouldn't point fingers at just nations, either. Even here on HN, where startups with fast 10-1,000X liquidity events receive gallons of ink compared to the inkjet droplets miserly begrudged to to self-funding, slow organic growth companies, we engage in similar dynamics.

Making someone or a nation fabulously wealthy and/or powerful doesn't change them, it only discloses their true character and moral fiber. The uncomfortable truth is a substantial portion of us, whether at the individual or nation-state level, when granted free reign with no one saying "No", are jerks. IMHO UBI is like pure communism or pure capitalism: they only sustainably and consistently work if the vast majority (I'd personally guess around 95%) are truly not jerks, and thus have the means to keep the levers of power away from those who are.

BTW, I'm one of those jerks. Maybe not the biggest douche-canoe you've ever met, but I'm definitely a jerk, though I chip away at that.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#418

Post by _ph_ »

tuatoru wrote: post #282
TomWhitwell wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Traditional power stations do exactly this - being closed for maintenance or running on low output for days, weeks or months even the interconnector cables between UK and European power suppliers have failed for months at a time. BUT yes, there's no equivalent of unexpected low wind and/or low solar for days or weeks.

The equivalent is a detached turbine blade, or sudden failure of cooling water pipes/intakes/pumps. Unexpected failures happen all the time.

The point is, a failing turbine makes not a noticable dent in the electricity production when there are tens of thousands of turbines. At that scale, the number of turbines which are shut down for failures/maintenance becomes a constant. A huge power plant going down in an instant is another problem however.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#419

Post by imtringued »

ehnto wrote: post #284
arjun-menon wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family. An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor . The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen [a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen . T…

I wouldn't so boldly claim they won't go poor, you trust in good management and no internal misfortune or subterfuge. Though their savings buy them considerable time to figure out an economic path forward, the loss of their profit center will surely affect the weight of their currency and political influence. Oil won't go away of course, once the huge capital investment no longer makes sense it will become less abund…

If they are well prepared then they will actually do better after the oil is gone. The resource curse results in countries focusing on a few narrow industries. Resource extraction is easy but it only benefits those who are directly employed by it. Usually governments don't make it easy for other types of businesses to flourish because they can entirely support themselves on resource extraction.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#420

Post by pmiller2 »

hollerith wrote: post #403
ako wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll still need oil, not for energy, but as a raw material for production of plastics and many other products.

And plastic does not turn into CO2.

Plastic has its own issues, as does the production of plastic.
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