Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#411

Post by technofiend » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 3:19 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #185

ben010783 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series! American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

I own an F150 I inherited from my grandfather. As much as I lust after Teslas I wouldn't trade it for an electric for one simple reason: my F150 is what I drive if I must drive at all when it floods. AFAIK you cannot and should not submerge the motors or the battery on an electric car. Still, that's an edge case.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#412

Post by toast0 » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 4:18 AM UTC

graycat wrote: post #400

toast0 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those features don't have a lot of negatives though. More ground clearance is hard to be a negative (I wasn't able to use the front bumper as a snow plow?) A towing capable engine is a negative if you're not using it, because MPG; but you can get small engined trucks too.

> A towing capable engine is a negative if you're not using it, because MPG; If want to pull a 30' boat or a trailer big enough for a family of four up the Rockies, then, sure, can want a big engine. Otherwise two of the main things about a "towing capable engine" is (i) a bigger radiator and (ii) an engine oil cooler. The main issue is that when towing the engine can run at relatively high power levels for minutes a…

Sure. The big radiator and oil cooler (and transmission cooler) is nice to have, and is probably not a negative (additional maintenance maybe, though).

But if you intended to tow frequently, you're probably not opting for the 4-cylinder econobox light truck package.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#413

Post by appleiigs » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 4:21 AM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #353

appleiigs wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you accept your argument, as you pointed out, a pipeline (Line 9) helped the situation.

Sure, an existing pipeline. It was originally built to move oil east decades ago. Then it was reversed because oil coming from the other direction was more economical. Then they reversed it back recently. My overall point is that almost every Albertan I've spoken to doesn't even know about Line 9, and politicians and media there keep repeating points about Quebec and Saudi Oil and Saudi tankers, and being denied acce…

What does it matter if it's existing or not. The pipe helps Canada reduce spending money elsewhere. It helps the environment vs trucks, rail and tankers. A new pipe will help further, whether you think 25% imports is still high or not (it is still high, see next paragraph). You've already shown the benefits of adjusting Line 9.

Oil prices are not high. Today WTI is at $54 and Alberta oil (which is also Canada's oil) is selling at $12 cheaper (21%) because of transportation issues... that's then on top of that we pay an addition cost for refined products! $12 is per barrel... and we import 592 million barrels PER DAY according to the website you linked.

EDIT: you also said in a previous comment "and the world wide price of oil has been sagging for a half decade because of global macroeconomic forces"... but now you're saying oil is high? Ok, I'm really out of this discussion now, you're just making stuff up.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#414

Post by NotSammyHagar » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 4:24 AM UTC

dghughes wrote: post #389

Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so. If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for. I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the techn…

That's like the hall of fame entry for things that aren't actually true about electric vehicles. Efficiency doesn't get worse at highway speeds as compared to gas engines. EVs and gas engines spend more of their energy going faster against air resistance. evs are vastly more efficient than gas cars in terms of energey efficiency, thats why electric cars have theoretical gas mileage of around 100 mpg. But gas is a very efficient energy storage mechanism, gas cars are about 1/4 the efficiency of electric cars but can be gased up quickly and have more net range usually.

Teslas don't lose half their range when it's cold. They do lose some range, but it's much less than other evs, because they heat up the pack. evs are great for cross country travel, if there are reasonable charging stations along the way (which is best with tesla).

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#415

Post by GiorgioG » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 4:34 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #348

GiorgioG wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought my F150 2 years ago and I love it (coming from a Honda CRV.) I'm a software engineer that works from home. If I need a 2x4 or mulch for the yard, I can throw it in the back without worry. They're versatile vehicles. Getting new couches for the living room? Throw it in the back of the truck instead of paying the ridiculous delivery fee.

I paid $500 and put a hitch on my Model S. I can tow more with a trailer than I could've put in my Toyota pickup truck bed (in 10 years of ownership, I never once towed anything more than 1000 lbs with my pickup). Not saying your use case is wrong (I get the appeal having owned a truck for so long), only that folks should consider that a pickup truck is not the only path to easy cargo logistics.

Having to rent or store a trailer is a huge pain in the butt - for me anyway.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#416

Post by NotSammyHagar » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 4:39 AM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #279

Cshelton wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

I think this overlooks several key facts. 1. Poor countries cannot afford the EV infrastructure. As Africa gains in wealth it is absolutely going to rely on gasoline engines, the government stability is not there to allow for a wide spread EV charging infrastructure. Plus EV is far more expensive putting it out of reach for emerging economies. 2. You are overlooking the power of existing industry. Natural gas has mas…

Disagree. 1. poor countries already have electric power. most of the countries are using 220volts, that charges your electric car just fine. evs will soon be cheaper that most gas cars because no maintenance, 1 million mile power tranes, no spark plugs, fan belts, clutch, heater core, oil change, air filter, gas, gas filter.

2. The power of the existing industry - ha. Economic forces conquer all. Coal is failing because nat gas is way cheaper. Just like solar power and wind power will soon be cheap enough to attack nat gas.

3. Tesla is doing just fine against basically the entire gas, financial, automotive industries, etc.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#417

Post by greglindahl » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 5:12 AM UTC

jlawson wrote: post #378

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as we live in a global economy we will be hungry for oil. A global economy depends on shipping goods around the world, and for that to work you need a high energy density fuel source, and there is really no alternative nearly as good as oil. This isn't about SUVs or consumer air travel. The world will need oil for cargo transport to sustain the trade necessary to maintain our economic way of life. Hydrocarbon…

Is there any technological reason we couldn't use nuclear-powered container ships? They're the same general scale as nuclear aircraft carriers. Trains can also be electric and powered by a third-rail type system. Trucks and drones can be electric. Obviously there are political barriers but if it really came down to this or the end of sea shipping I suspect those barriers could be overcome.

Nuclear reactors on ships require bomb-grade uranium fuel and an elite crew of masters-degreed engineers to run them.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#418

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 5:12 AM UTC

dghughes wrote: post #389

Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so. If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for. I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the techn…

[deleted]

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#419

Post by plugger » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 5:12 AM UTC

dghughes wrote: post #389

Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so. If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for. I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the techn…

> I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the technology advances but people need to be realistic.

Realistically most people driving full sized pickup trucks aren't farmers and aren't rural.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#420

Post by plugger » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 5:14 AM UTC

technofiend wrote: post #411

Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

I own an F150 I inherited from my grandfather. As much as I lust after Teslas I wouldn't trade it for an electric for one simple reason: my F150 is what I drive if I must drive at all when it floods. AFAIK you cannot and should not submerge the motors or the battery on an electric car. Still, that's an edge case.

Telsa model 3s act as boats during floods. Have a look at youtube, there are numerous videos of people stranded in their engine flooded car and a Tesla floats right by.