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Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

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Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#401

Post by Forgeties79 »

midnightclubbed wrote: post #198
RussianCow wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But even then a twice a week household cleaning hire is going to cost upwards of $1500/mo unless you're being particularly exploitative. Sorry, what? Unless you're doing a deep clean of your house twice a week or you live in a particularly HCOL area, those numbers don't add up. You shouldn't be spending more than $1k/month on household chores, and even that seems high. Source: A client of ours runs a "personal help…

Even in high cost of living coastal Southern California these numbers are insane unless you have a $10mil house with 10,000sqft

Then tell me what you think it would cost. Hourly pay, how many hours they’d work in a day, and how many days a month you would expect them. What would be the monthly cost for the kind of help you are envisioning?

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#402

Post by Forgeties79 »

dh2022 wrote: post #171
Forgeties79 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're paying cash/under the table, then maybe. But even then a twice a week household cleaning hire is going to cost upwards of $1500/mo unless you're being particularly exploitative. If you're not under the table, you're paying payroll taxes, probably paying for a payroll service, etc. so you're talking $2000+. At best you can maybe stay under $20k a year. When you really look at the economics of it, a robot tha…

Who spends new-car money to clean their homes? Maybe ultra high net worth individuals? I know people with 8 figures net worth who spend a fraction of that money for cleaning their homes.

Given the current context the presumption would be you have somebody coming 2 to 3 days a week. Are you telling me somebody’s going to come work for you for less than $100 a day 2-3 days a week? Why would they even take the gig?

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#403

Post by Forgeties79 »

devilbunny wrote: post #293
what wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pay $40/h for 4 hours once a month. If the wife had her way, it would be weekly.

But presumably would not be for four hours a week, since they would do more maintenance-like cleaning. Once a month, yeah, it’s going to take that long.

Why wouldn’t it take that long? When you hire people to do housekeeping they don’t just come for the exact amount of time you need them on an infrequent, case by case basis. You generally have to agree to a standard number of hours and days or a flat rate per day. They’re trying to make a living. If you can’t give them consistency and a meaningful amount of hours, they won’t work for you (or only will temporarily). They will find someone else who can provide more stability.

All that being said, what do you think this will cost? Several of you are scoffing at my numbers but I am very curious what you think they will leave their house for on a daily basis and how many days a month they would be coming by. Plus all the taxes and such that come with doing it legally.

If we’re trying to compare this to some sort of robot that does all your chores, then we have to at least start at 3 days a week. I’d compromise at 2 I guess but 8 days a month doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to a full-time robot chore handler.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#404

Post by dh2022 »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #402
dh2022 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who spends new-car money to clean their homes? Maybe ultra high net worth individuals? I know people with 8 figures net worth who spend a fraction of that money for cleaning their homes.

Given the current context the presumption would be you have somebody coming 2 to 3 days a week. Are you telling me somebody’s going to come work for you for less than $100 a day 2-3 days a week? Why would they even take the gig?

My point is even 8 figures net worth individuals do not pay for someone to clean their house 2-3 times a week.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#405

Post by ComputerGuru »

Shame. Boston Dynamics is famous for having a “no using our machines for evil” policy. If you break it (eg mount weapons on their robots, even if you’re a government), they won’t sell to you.

Hyundai (the chaebol) has no such policy. They sell their heavy equipment to oppressive regimes to blatantly use in projects and efforts deemed illegal under international humanitarian law and by the International Court of Justice.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#406

Post by [deleted] »

what wrote: post #284
midnightclubbed wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in high cost of living coastal Southern California these numbers are insane unless you have a $10mil house with 10,000sqft

Not really? I pay $40/h, it takes them 4 hours to clean a 4 bed/2 bath. I do it once a month, but they’re talking twice a week.

[deleted]

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#407

Post by inglor_cz »

siva7 wrote: post #400
mrweasel wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably a bit of both. Space X is overvalued, and so is Cursor. It's easier for Space X to justify buying Cursor for $60B than it would be for other, because it's a rounding error compared to Space X's valuation. I haven't tried Cursor, and I'm sure it's a perfectly good IDE, but given that JetBrains was valued at $7B in 2021 [1] $60B seems rather high. 1) https://servreality.com/news/jetbrains-startup-valued-a…

How far we have come that 60B could be considered a rounding error for a company

The US has GDP of 32 trillion. In an economy of that size, you would expect a few companies for which 60B is not crazy money, although rounding error is really stretching it.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#408

Post by kelipso »

addaon wrote: post #268
kelipso wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are all tech that almost everyone owns. Makes sense that mass production would reduce costs and then the cost reductions would go towards zero. For new technology that hasn't been mass produced, it's a completely different story.

But that's my point. If you're basing your society shape around adopting a technology based on it continually decreasing in price, but you only get a few decades of that behavior before saturation and then you're at the mercy of the consolidated winners... generally adoptions like this aren't reversible at the societal level. You're locking in a long-term structural change based on a short-term pricing trend.

Still doesn't make sense. You were criticizing: "But once a technology like general-purpose humanoid robotics exists, it’s costs are only likely to decrease over time."

But the point was currently general-purpose humanoid robots is not affordable by the average person like say cars or washing machines currently are, but it will be because the costs will decrease. There was no argument that the price will forever keep going down, just like the price of cars or washing machines are not expected to constantly go down.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#409

Post by tychez »

quaddoggy wrote: post #354

Looking forward to a three month wait for my robot to be repaired. Basing this assumption on current vehicular maintenance times.

Exactly. Atlas right now cost about $150,000 in manufacturing cost.

The upkeep cost is going to be astronomical for a very long time.

The human body gets beat up doing physical work but can self heal. The robot can not.

Accidents happen all the time doing work and the robot is not going to be as accurate as a human.

I would assume there are zero robot mechanics in the town I live.

I think we will just look back at this time as the good ol days during the peak of the bubble when buying a humanoid robot seemed like something on the horizon.

I imagine 5 years from now it will feel much further away than it does right now.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics

#410

Post by Forgeties79 »

dh2022 wrote: post #404
Forgeties79 wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the current context the presumption would be you have somebody coming 2 to 3 days a week. Are you telling me somebody’s going to come work for you for less than $100 a day 2-3 days a week? Why would they even take the gig?

My point is even 8 figures net worth individuals do not pay for someone to clean their house 2-3 times a week.

We set a bar for income brackets here as well as decided this is just for individuals?
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