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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#401

Post by oa335 »

ericmay wrote: post #342
smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade.

The US is stopping other countries from trading with Cuba and Iran. The US doesn’t have the “right” to do that, but it doesn’t need the “right”. It only needs power.

Iran has power over the Hormuz and is exerting it for what it deems is in its interest.

> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it

Maybe? But I doubt it - $1 per barrel amounts to like 1-2% of the price of oil. They may not like it but it’s not going to affect their bottom line nearly as much as closing the strait for 1 week will. A war with Iran would mean utter destruction of all oil infrastructure in the region, so probably better to pay 2% to avoid that.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#402

Post by raspasov »

kumarvvr wrote: post #312
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

I think the nature of war has changed. A slow moving swarm of drones, will keep large Aircraft carriers well outside the range of their fighter jets. A nation can swarm an aircraft carrier with a 1000 drones, each costing about 40k USD. Only a few are needed to seriously damage the carrier. Not to mention ballistic missiles. In this scenario, does a US massive, slow moving aircraft carrier possibly carrying hundreds…

The US Navy has quite a few more tricks up its sleeve apart from aircraft carriers. Just one publicly known that immediately comes to mind: amphibious assault ships, which can launch/land F35s.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Tripoli_(LHA-7) [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCMSKTxgQI4

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#403

Post by toraway »

gizajob wrote: post #363
noelsusman wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The companies with billions on the line didn't seem to think Iran's threats to attack ships were impotent. Their military capabilities are diminished in the short term, but if their ability to impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz holds then that's a massive win for Iran in the medium/long term. A mere $2M per ship represents 10% of Iran's GDP. They would become the only country in the world to impose a toll on inter…

Hard to spin your supreme leader and all your generals and military commanders being flattened as a win.

Not really that hard when the alternative is the regime collapsing and/or giving up their nuclear program?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#404

Post by UncleOxidant »

ericmay wrote: post #342
smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

> I wouldn’t worry about that lol. Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.

And yet they haven't gone to war (or joined in the war) to open up the SoH so far.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#405

Post by YZF »

spiderice wrote: post #353
smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

Oil is a globally traded commodity so the US definitely does care. The US also does consume oil from the gulf.

That said this term is not going to be acceptable to anyone so it's likely not going to happen. It remains to be seen where we'll be after the two week ceasefire that Iran declared it would never accept (no ceasefire, only end of war). Iran certainly has some leverage but so does the US.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#406

Post by throwaway27448 »

ericmay wrote: post #342
smallmancontrov wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

[flagged]

> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.

Is this not the war they're currently losing? the US is their military.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#407

Post by peder »

zild3d wrote: post #395
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's 10-point plan (that no one else has agreed to)

Exactly, but Hacker News is upvoting this because it wants the US to be seen as the loser of this conflict.

Both sides in a conflict (or any negotiation) make demands that they know the other will not accept. You can't just take someone's list like that and assume that'll be the exact outcome.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#408

Post by GorbachevyChase »

smcnc wrote: post #269
oa335 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed How are they still firing missiles and downing aircraft?

[flagged]

That’s where you’re wrong, kiddo. They don’t need to win a set piece battle like it’s a chessboard. They’ve already woken everyone up from Pax Americana. I’m not sure what’s going to happen when the GCC realizes that pumping billions into the United States economy comes with no security guarantees or real benefit at all. We’re operating from a highly leveraged position. It’s going to take a while, but with a few more years of hindsight, the depth of what a monumental strategic blunder this is will seem hard to believe. We’re not sending our best to Washington.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#409

Post by ahf8Aithaex7Nai »

I had a teacher in school who would sometimes stand at the front of the class with her hand raised and three fingers extended, announcing, “I'm going to count to three, and then you'll all be quiet!” Of course, that never worked. I never understood why she kept putting herself through that farce over and over again. Every deadline that passes without consequence is a loss of face. The same goes for Trump. He can sugarcoat it all he wants: the world sees it as a defeat. The only thing missing is him collecting shells on the beach and ordering the construction of a lighthouse.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#410

Post by spiderice »

swat535 wrote: post #352
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

1. Why pretend like you have any insight into the state of Iranian uranium? Just immediately makes you unreliable.

2. Ah yes, "supreme leader" doesn't sound "top down" at all

3. If by "still operating" you mean, not shooting missiles out of fear of getting destroyed. Sure. But that's silly.

4. For now. But very unlikely to last, imo.

6. "IRGC stronger than ever" is an insane take. How could they be stronger than before this war? They aren't. Again, shows that you're completely unreliable on this subject

7. "Millions of dollars" haha. Oh no, not millions with an "M"!

8. Sure. But how are you going to downplay the damage to Iran and then emphasize the damage to the US when they are many orders of magnitude different? Like, surely you don't think the damages are at all comparable

9. So long as Iran has oil to sell, yes

10. K.. again, playing up damages that are orders of magnitude less than what Iran has sustained

11. True

You seem to be very confident in your understanding of what is currently going on in Iran, despite the fact that you no longer live there. Obviously the IRGC has the internet turned off for a reason. They want to be able to control the narrative. And if it were all roses like you're making it out to be, they would personally be paying the internet bill of every Iranian to spread the word. Yet instead, they silence your people.

And do you really want to bring up the school, as tragic as it was, after your government slaughtered like 30,000 of its own citizens days before that? Motes and beams and all that.

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