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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

401–410 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#401

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

Tariffs do hurt the exporter nonetheless, which I suspect is a goal in itself for Trump and some of his supporters. Agents aren't rational, this is eco 102.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#402

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

So do buyers also pay for 96% of the advertising, 96% of the manufacturing, etc.?

100+% actually, or else the company is losing money.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is quite amusing watching people try to argue that there's a very serious plan behind Greenland whilst Trump privately lobbies for it with the arguments of a young and very spoiled child. His tariff preferences have the same level of thought behind them, at least until the people that have the slightest idea of how things actually work can tone them down and put his ideas on the shelf for long enough to stave off…

What amazes me is that all of the checks and balances have either failed or have been disabled. The US is always full of their 'Founding Fathers', I can't help but think that they'd be horrified to see the situation as it has developed so far and that's with a serious note that I suspect it will get a lot worse still.

The heritage society has worked for decades to tilt the ideological balance of the judiciary and the Supreme Court specifically. The GOP base’s cult-like devotion to Trump and his power to target the reelection prospects of individual representatives and senators has lead to them sidelining themselves.

Unlike Trump’s first term, his cabinet and agency heads are little more than loyalists and yes men. Checks and balances are gone. Independent thinking is gone. The president has long been an incompetent racist and malignant narcissist and the country (and world — for now) are suffering as he unleashes whatever cruel, imbecilic impulses that cross his mind. Add to that the fact that he’s quite clearly unwell.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#404

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

It's still a bit of a mystery to me TBH. Not that Americans are paying it, but where's the cash? The headline suggests it was all passed into consumers. So why is inflation still so low? If you add 10-30% to prices (granted, of imports, not of houses, domestic food etc), you'd expect more. If companies were eating it (which apparently they aren't) then their profitability should be down. But that doesn't seem to be t…

Imports seeing large tariff changes aren't a particularly large part of the CPI basket, and domestic substitutes exist. Expected responses from US manufacturers putting their own prices up are lagged, and tempered by some of the consumer response being simply buying less stuff.

The Fed predicted it added 0.5 points to what inflation could have fallen to with the expected effects only partially visible. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tarif...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third-party vote is a vote for Trump.

This kind of purity test is why the left cant win right now. Anyone who does a wrong-think is shitcanned and othered. Im gonna put a theory out that I havent seen here yet, a lot of people voted for Trump because they got dunked on by leftist Twitter, told they were racist/fascist/whatever for having an opinion like "communism is bad", and now comes a guy who wont back down and who legit makes them cry liberal tears.…

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#406
post #76

Few thoughts/observations on Tariff impacts now that we have a decent amount of time/data to look at: Suppliers in China are dropping prices to offset the tariff impact - this is what I see in my direct industry and also in many adjacent ones. This is benefitting other countries that don't have Tariffs on Chinese goods since they can buy cheaper as well. I suspect this is a significant factor in the GBP/EUR strengthe…

> This is benefitting other countries that don't have Tariffs on Chinese goods since they can buy cheaper as well.

What countries are those? As far as I know, most important markets have great tariffs on Chinese goods.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Elections are kind of an "average" / pulse of the ~236 million eligible voters. The reasons people vote a certain way or can't be bothered to show up at the polls are going to vary significantly across the nearly quarter billion humans making those choices. So any attempt to "single issue" explain election results are going to be wrong, particularly in a close election like this one. (49.8% vs 48.3%, and Electoral Vo…

It seemed like the D. did not want to win. They wanted to make a point. The R seemingly also wanted to make a point. The current administration also strives to make an point here and there, against anyone's best interest (including themselves): the silly tariffs, the insane ICE, the irrational play around Greenland, etc.

Both parties are quite disconnected from the interests of the "ordinary people", and the "ordinary people" voting from them are often quite disconnected from the reality; instead they want someone who would approve their preconceptions, and would stick it to "them" in the endless political sports match.

Which may not be that endless: if the political climate of the US deteriorates enough, some authoritarian populist could just get elected and never leave. The current administration likes to hint at that, but they seem to inane to actually pull this off. Somebody less theatrical and more cold-blooded could, though :(

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#408

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

> like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no?

No, that's the literal messaging from the US government. Trump has been talking about tariffs as the magic pill that fixes everything.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.

“people who disagree with me must do it because they are stupid and/or manipulated” It’s true on its surface - most people don’t know about economics, across all political spectrums, and so rely on leaders (which I thought is what liberalism advocates for?). It’s not a helpful model if you want to understand what’s going on. So then the interesting parts to explore are the reasons they want to believe it, and the rea…

Let's keep in mind that a tariff is, by definition, a tax that is paid by an importer to their own government for importing some good.

> the educated economists who also support the position

> the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US

I'm quite sure the provided definition of a tariff is accurate. Given that, who are these economists and what are the reasons they give for supporting this belief that the exporters (other countries) pay the tariff?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#410

I actually think Trump is going to lose big soon. One turning point was the death of Renee Good. Past this point the ICE stormtroopers may kill anyone else too, no matter who that is - just step in front of a car and shoot when the car moves. For serious penalty, all those TechBro cronies need to have all assets seized. They are imcompatible with democracy.

There’s no solidarity movement coalescing around Good’s death. When the local police chief invoked “say her name” in a public statement on it, it caused a bunch of acrimony and resentment instead. I think Americans past the point where individual instances of police violence can shock us into taking political action (which is extremely risky in any case). It’s going to take kilodeath crimes, I imagine.

> There’s no solidarity movement coalescing around Good’s death

This is clearly untrue, and you must be in a bubble if you think this

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