Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#401

Post by sebmellen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:36 AM UTC

8note wrote: post #368

sebmellen wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your level of paranoia and aggression will vary depending on how hawkish you are. If you’re more hawkish you’ll be more aggressive and make your move as early as possible, and you’ll also tolerate a lot more pain to achieve your goal. Bessent seems pretty determined. I do think it’s clear that our industrial capacities have eroded. Look at our infrastructure compared to China. We lag on every metric: transportation i…

but america doesnt want solar production, building projects, or transportation initiatives. new roads and oil only.

Well, I’ve never said I agree with how the current administration is going about their business. But it’s instructive to understand their perspective.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#402

Post by travisgriggs » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:36 AM UTC

mathfailure wrote: post #231

travisgriggs wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the isolationist era that followed World War One clearly calmed the rest of the world, so that the various "expansionist" regimes felt less threatened and just let their neighbors be. History rhymes with itself.

It's different now, since at that time there were no weapons of total annihilation (and now there are quite some). That's exactly why 'expansionist' regimes were ready to start some next war, being eager "to get some extra land" as a result of said war. The current war is different: this is the war that started not out of appetite towards foreign lands, but, basically, out of primal fear, the fear concerning safety.…

Interesting, but I don’t see it this way at all. The west talked Ukraine into giving up their nukes and said we’ll keep you safe. All that without NATO. But as time has ebbed, and Russia meddling in eastern Ukraine went largely ignored by the west, Russia grew emboldened and decided it could just invest in a history rewrite, an airing of past grievances, and an invasion.

If Ukraine had said “fuck no” from day one, “we’re keeping our stuff, we don’t trust any of you long term at that level”, it would be in interesting world we live in.

This narrative that NATO provoked Russia into this is non sequitur. A gaslight of grandeur.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#403

Post by brookst » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:36 AM UTC

outer_web wrote: post #28

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

And yet even after stiffing the contractors, the casinos still went bankrupt.

It’s a culture thing.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#404

Post by vitaflo » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:37 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #172

bdelmas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

The constitution says you’re wrong. And the justices he appointed would uphold the constitution if he tried it.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#405

Post by sebmellen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:37 AM UTC

ameetgaitonde wrote: post #332

sebmellen wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s axiomatically presume that vertical integration (of your supply chain, manufacturing, software development, labor force, etc.) is the key to “innovation” in the abstract. You can see this starting to happen with BYD, the Chinese electric car company, for example. With the above in mind, let’s say your goal as a country is to develop your industries so you can achieve broad vertical integration. Soft economic as…

What makes you think the United States has lost hard economic assets? Also, have you considered that there are different types of innovations, that are affected by the structure of an economy and its research institutions? The US has dominated radical innovations, China has excelled in incremental innovations. We're potentially throwing away our advantage in the former by decimating our research capacity (something c…

I’ve never said I agree with how the current administration is going about their business. But it’s instructive to understand their perspective.

My comments in this thread are mostly informed by everything I read about Bessent.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#406

Post by Centigonal » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:37 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #142

Centigonal wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Yes, it is a liability, because in exchange for your reserve currency status you are indebting your country. Gradually, as you outsource more and produce less, your country derives more and more of its returns from soft economic assets (financial markets, legal structures, software, pharma, IP, etc.), than hard economic assets (commodities, energy, manufacturing, transportation, logistics, etc.). In the long run, thi…

Thanks for the explanation! Most of what you wrote makes sense to me. In particular, I think the concept that going hard -> soft economic assets is easier than the reverse is really interesting. I'll have to think on that more.

Things that still give me pause:

1. I don't understand why hard economic assets like manufacturing are more heavily impacted by this phenomenon. Wouldn't exporting a $50,000 car and a $50,000 software license have the same impact on the country's current account? I think it might have something to do with the marginal cost of replication point you made, but, for example, the marginal cost of manufacturing semiconductors is very small, and we trail in that too.

2. I disagree with your assertion that 'vertical integration is the key to “innovation” in the abstract.' I think this is often true, because vertical integration enables more control/flexibility and faster iteration, which allows innovation to occur. However, there are many cases (e.g. fabless semiconductors, meat poultry farming, software companies build on the cloud) where the innovation was actually to split the value chain into separate concerns with separate concerns.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#407

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:38 AM UTC

Centigonal wrote: post #267

bdelmas wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well before what's happening now the US still was doing very strong on the economy (plus their advantage to be that big, their military advantage, them owning half of their continent, etc...). But with what is unfolding now... If you want to know more about the current situation in the UK I would recommend this video [1]. His channel is amazing for geopolitical content. [1] https://youtu.be/OTWDzMjgsEY?si=hxoB8ef_y2Q…

Some stats from this video: - The UK has one of the worst homelessness problems in Europe, with about 1 in 50 Londoners experiencing homelessness. - The UK economy stagnated for 10 years following 2008, resulting in a "lost decade" - The median disposable income in the UK was slightly lower than the US and Norway before the GFC by 6-8%, not it's 16-20% behind. IDK if I'd call this a crisis, i.e. people aren't rioting…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#408

Post by paxys » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:39 AM UTC

bluefirebrand wrote: post #303

paxys wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

The man is 78 years old There's a good chance he doesn't even live to the end of this term, forget running for president again at 82...

Trump's father lived to 93, and mother to 88. He doesn't have any serious medical conditions (that we know of). There isn't a high chance that he's going to die of natural causes in the next 4 years.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#409

Post by mathfailure » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:41 AM UTC

travisgriggs wrote: post #402

mathfailure wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's different now, since at that time there were no weapons of total annihilation (and now there are quite some). That's exactly why 'expansionist' regimes were ready to start some next war, being eager "to get some extra land" as a result of said war. The current war is different: this is the war that started not out of appetite towards foreign lands, but, basically, out of primal fear, the fear concerning safety.…

Interesting, but I don’t see it this way at all. The west talked Ukraine into giving up their nukes and said we’ll keep you safe. All that without NATO. But as time has ebbed, and Russia meddling in eastern Ukraine went largely ignored by the west, Russia grew emboldened and decided it could just invest in a history rewrite, an airing of past grievances, and an invasion. If Ukraine had said “fuck no” from day one, “w…

I am sorry, but it looks like you are just uneducated about the facts and events that happened prior to Russia taking Crimea back. You should not just read some, but actually dig a bit, if you are really interested. I'm not here for a political debate really, I'm not buying into your baity (and wrong) arguments. I shared my idea about how tariffs might be a step that might actually prevent a nuke war and I just expand on said thought.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#410

Post by jmye » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:42 AM UTC

fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

> My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run.

Yeah, seemed like the IPOs were really getting going again, but I think that likely dries right up, too.

Unless you figured out how to materialize rare earths out of thin air, or spin up an automated factory in six months, it’s hard to imagine anyone will be looking to give you money.