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LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

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Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#401

Post by kulahan »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #20

Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…

I was absolutely certain I saw a photo of LK-99 floating over (partially, part of it was still touching) a magnet. Of course, this proves nothing as it's a photo, but I have this memory of seeing it, so maybe someone else saw it in some official capacity.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#402

Post by jimmySixDOF »

echelon wrote: post #292
Ajedi32 wrote: post #274

Whether or not this turns out to be real the whole incident has been extremely entertaining, way more than I would have expected. Replication attempts being documented in real time on Twitter and livestreamed on Twitch, news about infighting and drama among the researchers who published the paper, constant fluxations in the betting markets as new news comes out. It's been a wild ride.

It's a lot like the EmDrive incident, except replication attempts are easier. Both are strange discoveries that are poised to change the world as we know it. Hopefully this one turns out, unlike the EmDrive.

This is the best state of affairs sum up at the moment and my favorite plot line is the soil scientist.

https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1685960703658860544?s=19

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#403

Post by tomrod »

oneshtein wrote: post #160
tomrod wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye, it produces neutron isotopes, but not at room temperature and not with a net excess of energy. It's the difference between going on a Sunday walk and a Monday commute. Yes, technically, your body is physically moving places, but the similarities don't extend much beyond that point nor would we encourage mistaking one for the other.

35 thousand Kelvin in a "cold" nuclear fusion reactor is much closer to room temperature than the temperature in a "hot" nuclear fusion reactor. Both types of reactors do not produce excess energy, but the cold reactor has already found application while the hot reactor will be ready in 25 years. Which kind of reactor is hoax?

This one, specifically.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion#Response_and_fallo...

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#404

Post by amelius »

twoodfin wrote: post #259
amelius wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I invest in technology (hoping it will work) but use the prediction market to hedge in case the technology won't work, how does that tell anyone watching the prediction market that people have net positive feelings about the technology?

If you were 100% confident you wouldn’t hedge at all. If you’re 80% confident you’d hedge less than if you were only 60% confident. This all translates into an price signal if the market is functioning and liquid.

You should explain how this works then. How exactly do you derive a prediction from the price? Also if the people with deep knowledge of the technology use the prediction market for hedging, and all the "outsiders" use it for speculation, then the signal is disturbed anyway.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#405

Post by weard_beard »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #271
marcosdumay wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they learn from it And the lesson is that betting markets are a scam. But then you get people criticizing the ones telling you that lesson. Is it because newborn fools must be preserved until people can take their money?

How are betting markets a scam? They are remarkably useful, you can watch the LK-99 market now and you will know immediately as new information arrives.

The "replication" does not use the same methodology and the "scientist" is asking for bitcoin to post a video of the quantum locking effect.

The existence of the market is encouraging literal scams.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#406

Post by alchemist1e9 »

weard_beard wrote: post #405
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are betting markets a scam? They are remarkably useful, you can watch the LK-99 market now and you will know immediately as new information arrives.

The "replication" does not use the same methodology and the "scientist" is asking for bitcoin to post a video of the quantum locking effect. The existence of the market is encouraging literal scams.

So what it’s also encouraging real information.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#407

Post by alchemist1e9 »

IX-103 wrote: post #386
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except history shows us that in 100% of the cases that working people seize the production and allocate the gains they do a unbelievable bad job. Socialism is the single most failed idea in human history, yet we refuse to properly teach that in our education system. I suspect in the future it will be view a bit like refusing to teach other scientific subjects, like evolution. In reality a mob of people end up produci…

Do you mean Communism instead of socialism above? Socialism has nothing to do with "seizing the means of production". For socialism it is sufficient to regulate private industries to achieve social good. And flavors of socialism are very successful so far. Most first-world countries (particularly in Western Europe) have adopted aspects of it and significantly improved individual quality of life compared to those coun…

Western europe is being left behind and it’s politicians are getting nervous. Claims of higher quality of life are false information.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#409

Post by jjk166 »

oneshtein wrote: post #91
tomrod wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When someone mentions cold fusion, they are explicitly referencing a net energy-producing process that operates at room temperature. That isn't what you are referencing.

> Cold fusion is a hypothesized type of nuclear reaction that would occur at, or near, room temperature. Wikipedia It works at near room temperature. The goal of the reactor in the video is to produce isotopes. It does the job.

It doesn't work anywhere near room temperature. Fusors operate at 10-30 keV, which is about 100 Million to 300 Million C. The plasma is extremely low density so there is very little power to heat things, and thus these units can safely run on a table top, but the temperature of the ions is enormous.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#410

Post by jacquesm »

oneshtein wrote: post #400
jacquesm wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't evaporate because it is constructed carefully not to, but that doesn't mean it isn't blazing hot, just like the gas burner on your stove can be made out of aluminum which would be melted by the flame if it ever became mis-aligned. But that doesn't mean the flame has a temperature lower than the melting point of aluminum, it just means that whoever designed it knew enough to ensure that the aluminum is never…

Although the plasma cutter creates extremely hot flames, it operates at room temperature and does not require powerful radiation protection, except for protective goggles, and it is easy to turn on and off. This sets it apart from the blast furnace. Similarly, a cold reactor may require a source of high-energy particles with very high temperatures to start, but they operate at room temperature, are easily turned on a…

Can you explain why you continue to say things that make no sense after it has been pointed out to you multiple times by multiple people? It's a bit strange, normally you'd realize your mistake and adapt, but you seem to persist in purposefully misunderstanding what it means when people talk about 'room temperature fusion'.

Let me spell it out once more and then as far as I'm concerned we're done here. Room temperature as a qualifier for a process means that the entire process operates at room temperature. Boiling an egg does not take place at room temperature, even if it takes place in a room. Superconduction - for now - does not take place at room temperature but far below it (this may change shortly, the jury is still out on that). Plasma, aka the fourth state of matter can in very extreme cases be created at low temperatures but we're talking about a couple of nuclei worth at best ( https://www.livescience.com/64422-plasma-cooled-with-lasers.... ) but normally only does so at thousands of degrees.

This means that the term 'room temperature' simply does not apply.

> This doesn't mean that it's not possible to create a cold reactor that generates a lot of heat

You really should read that sentence again. Cancel out the double negative and see if it makes sense to you.

> The hating of Cold Fusion has cost many people their lives.

This is complete nonsense.

> It would be better to allocate a small fraction of a budget for other nuclear power plants and direct them towards CF, because the cost of CF iteration is orders of magnitude lower, and a few million dollars or euros could significantly advance science.

Science budgets are limited and tend to be directed to areas that are suspected to be fruitful. This makes it hard to get funding for what is - charitably - called crank science (or, more precisely, pathological science), which includes cold fusion. If you are a strong believer in the concept you should fund it yourself rather than to put the burden of your beliefs on others.

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