Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

forums.spacebattles.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

381–390 of 659 posts

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#381

Post by jerf »

n2d4 wrote: post #348
epivosism wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the fact that everyone is trying to replicate the process rather than validate the existing material is very weird. Replication is hard, validation is much easier. If they've had this material for years, just send some off to a few labs... People claiming unusual abilities/etc usually focus on a very difficult ceremony/situation/feeling/process rather than the outcome. Ghosts, spiritual experiences, etc. really…

Why do you silently assume that samples aren't being shared around as we speak? CMTC of the University of Maryland stated that the authors are cooperating in regards to this https://twitter.com/condensed_the/status/1684960318718406656 There's value in both validating existing samples and producing new ones.

I would find it very easy to believe that they produced something that is superconducting but following their directions didn't work. An unknown factor could very easily be involved. But proof that their sample is even "interesting" (it doesn't need to be "superconducting" in the strictest sense of the term to still be "interesting") would be enough to say "Hey, let's keep looking over here, we know there's something to find!"

Sometimes just knowing there's something to find at all is 90% of the battle. Many historical examples, in both science and non-science fields.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#382

Post by floxy »

dmitrybrant wrote: post #255
asimpletune wrote: post #177

So, Russian anime cat girl seems to have cooked a sample and demonstrated some of the claimed properties, although she's explicit that it shouldn't be considered a "replication". https://twitter.com/iris_IGB/status/1685731177523449856

The "demonstration" is a photo of a single crumb of material inside a transparent pipette. It's claimed that the crumb is "levitating" inside the pipette, but what's stopping a random internet anon from gluing a crumb onto a pipette and taking a picture of it? I don't know about you, but if I had just succeeded in replicating a literally history-making experiment, I would perhaps take a video of it, and demonstrate h…

People getting excited over an oreo cookie crumb in a pipette? Wait till someone puts the oreo cookie wafer on an air hockey table for a fun levitation video.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#383

Post by WizardClickBoy »

wg0 wrote: post #43

I'm pretty sure that by the end of this month we'll know that the discovery was either instrument, method, process or humam error.

This month ends in about 10 hours depending on timezone, so they'd better get their skates on.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#384

Post by [deleted] »

nemo44x wrote: post #278
nmwnmw wrote: post #267

Isn't it sufficient to have another lab confirm that the existing sample is a super conductor? Then we can all sprint to replication.

Do we know they haven’t? The published papers were rushed (due to rogue ex-team member publishing one unauthorized) and they maybe weren’t ready. I’ve heard a rumor a team from MIT has travelled to Korea. Who knows right now.

[deleted]

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#385

Post by _a_a_a_ »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #365
echelon wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot like the EmDrive incident, except replication attempts are easier. Both are strange discoveries that are poised to change the world as we know it. Hopefully this one turns out, unlike the EmDrive.

You might be excited about ivo quantum drive that is going to be tested in space, NET October

That's a drive with which your exact position becomes uncertain so... you might be there already.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#386

Post by IX-103 »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #254
RedCondor wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All so-called "capital returns" are in reality produced by working people, and therefore people get to democratically decide what they do with them, through whatever decision-making forms they politically choose and consent to organize themselves under. Insofar as there are disagreements, because capitalist "geniuses" don't think their riches should be subject to democracy, we have a struggle between socialism and ca…

Except history shows us that in 100% of the cases that working people seize the production and allocate the gains they do a unbelievable bad job. Socialism is the single most failed idea in human history, yet we refuse to properly teach that in our education system. I suspect in the future it will be view a bit like refusing to teach other scientific subjects, like evolution. In reality a mob of people end up produci…

Do you mean Communism instead of socialism above? Socialism has nothing to do with "seizing the means of production". For socialism it is sufficient to regulate private industries to achieve social good.

And flavors of socialism are very successful so far. Most first-world countries (particularly in Western Europe) have adopted aspects of it and significantly improved individual quality of life compared to those countries who haven't.

Nice strawman.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#387

Post by epivosism »

gomox wrote: post #358
epivosism wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?" is at 18% https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/8-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-d... There are some caveats in the description, and this is play money, but people on the site do take their profits seriously.

It seems to be too thinly traded to read much into it? From what I can see a $100 bet would make the implied probability of detonation 93%.

yes, but then players would use their cash to bring it back to a reasonable number. That's why there are temporary blips on the site but markets which have at least 40-50 traders tend to stay where the whale consensus still is.

I admit it's a weakness, but even play money markets generally do tend to track real-money ones where they exist. People on the site mostly take their profits seriously.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#388

Post by banannaise »

throw0101a wrote: post #76
toth wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This type of instictive negative reaction to prediction markets is, unfortunately, common, but, I think, misguided. Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy polic…

What do these prediction markets produce ? Some people are saying "yes" and others are saying "no", and the answer is either "yes" or "no", but why bother spending money on predicting when society can spend money on replicating it? Wouldn't an actual replication attempt be more useful? > The latter is a perfectly reasonable thing to do - it's not easy for an average person to "pay off some lab", but if they provide l…

> What do these prediction markets produce?

Vigorish.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#389

Post by dsign »

My two-cents from my armchair spaceship: I thought we had solved quantum mechanics! If this material is real, why can't somebody run a computer code and calculate its theoretical conductivity/resistance? Did I suffer all that childhood trauma with wave functions to now, in my forties, have to learn it was all smoke and mirrors?

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#390

Post by IX-103 »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #223
Bluestrike2 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any number of the many, many, negative externalities[0], where market transactions are unable or unwilling to capture the often serious negative effects of an activity in its price, that have been documented and researched by economists over the years? Air pollution and greenhouse gases are just two of the biggest examples, with absolutely massive external costs that are not captured in the price. There are even posi…

For the record I believe I agree with you. However I view it as governments are the failure point in the issues you list, not markets. They have outright failed to address the negative externalities as they have been captured by private interests. In my opinion the entire financial system is captured and the regulations they tend to introduce are simply to allow the corrupt private entities further control. One neat…

Yes, the police are to blame for the rash of murders and arson is clearly the fire department's fault.

It takes two to perform regulatory capture -- unless one of them can buy votes from lawmakers. And guess what the "market" found was most efficient?

Post reply on HN