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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#401
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was actually reading some analysis from a military strategist who was quite critical of the foreign fighters. Essentially his arguments were that they are much more driven by idiology (and different ones) and thus less easy to follow orders and be controlled, which could lead to unwanted escalation. Not sure what to make of it, but people are definitely thinking about this.

when you say driven by ideology, you mean they are neo-nazis ?

> when you say driven by ideology, you mean they are neo-nazis ?

Could be all over the ideological spectrum. Surely quite a few Neo-Nazis, yes, but: If you're a fervent anti-Nazi who sees Putin as rather equivalent to a fascist (I pretty much do; a kind of Duginian pan-Slavo-fascism), you could AFAICS go fight against the Russians on those grounds too.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision." If that were true, NATO would have at least have sent troops to defend Ukraine. We know that if NATO uses n…

If Russia lobs a nuclear warning shot into the North Sea (say), what is the move by US+NATO that avoids escalation and avoids abandoning Ukraine ?

Lobbing one of their own into the Arctic Ocean?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)

> Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?

> Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?

For those volunteers who already decided to risk their life for Ukraine that is not an issue. What it does is give them, and the state of Ukraine, an out from accusations of "ruthless soldiers of fortune!" or Western nation-level meddling: "No no, these aren't foreign 'mercenaries', they're our citizens!"

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#404
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Ukraine wins, that Ukraine citizenship is gonna be an EU citizenship in a couple of years.

Riiiight. Why couldn’t they join the EU before the war if that’s the only thing in their way?

Because the EU is -- or at the very least, until the 24th of February, was (but if so, I fear they'll revert to form quite soon) -- a bunch of namby-pamby ditherers and cowards.

Sad to say it, as an EU citizen myself, but that's about it AFAICS.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#405

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

> The upside: Russia doesn't seem intent to even set foot in western Ukraine.

That seems to have changed since you wrote this five days ago.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sorry for the tone of that offensive sentence. Perhaps I should have expressed the feeling in a more diplomatic wording. We did have them against the mat and let them up. Howz that for a PC version. There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent. Instead we funded them.

>There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent. What does that mean in concrete terms? An invasion and occupation of Russia after the fall of the USSR? An extermination of the Russian people? What would a more complete defeat looks like?

> >There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent.

> What does that mean in concrete terms?

A thorough de-Communistification and collective education into the principles of democratic government and statehood, like the de-Nazification of (West) Germany after WW2.

> An invasion and occupation of Russia after the fall of the USSR?

Would have been preferable, yes; mainly because it would have been required for the above. Which would have meant that under the watchful eyes of a (comparatively enlightened) occupying force, Communism would have been far less likely to be replaced by a kleptocracy -> oligarchy -> neo-Soviet pseudo-fascist rule, which is what we've seen play out in Russia over the last thirty years. (Hm, about one decade per stage of this evolution?)

> An extermination of the Russian people?

If you absolutely want to be ridiculous, go ahead and be ridiculous. Not that comments like that make anyone more negative to the idea, you know.

> What would a more complete defeat looks like?

Pretty much anything would have been preferable to what the Russian people have become: The same as they have always been, a willing herd for autocrats to rule and use.

Isn't it about time for the Russians, too, to try something other than authoritarian rule for once[1] in their thousand years of history? If they can't even catch up to the seventeenth century, what use does the world really have of a "Russian people"? The Golden Horde and the Aztecs are also gone, and nobody seems to be missing them much.

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[1]: For a bit longer than the two single decades of dithering chaos under, uhm, Kerensky? and of kleptocratic free-for-all under Yeltsin.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

What price is preventing WW3 worth? I would say any price, as after WW3 civilization as we know it, if not all of humanity will perish. It is WW3 that we are edging towards in this war over NATO membership.

> It is WW3 that we are edging towards in this war over NATO membership.

It's not a "war over NATO membership"; that's just the Putler-propaganda framing of it.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apply to what? Lithuania has been a NATO member since 2004. This is literally the "eastward advance of NATO" which you referred to as a "moral mistake". You contradict yourself.

You misunderstand. The question of what is a strategic and moral mistake for this US is entirely separate from what makes Lithuania happy. If someone asks me how I would feel if I were Russian, Lithuanian, or Chinese I provide an answer from that perspective. That doesn't mean I agree with it or it is moral. To be absolutely clear, I can understand why Lithuania would want to be part of NATO, but I do not think it wa…

> I can understand why Lithuania would want to be part of NATO, but I do not think it was wise or moral for the US to grant such a request.

> This is not a radical position

Maybe not; only a stupid and morally abhorrent one.

> and was held by many NATO members at the time. They required significant persuasion from the US to allow Lithuania entry to NATO.

Yeah, NATO member states are also capable of holding stupid and morally abhorrent positions.

> Similarly, France, Germany, and many NATO countries did not want to open the door to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008. They felt that it would lead to war in Europe.

We'll never know, though, will we? Since Georgia and Ukraine weren't admitted into NATO in (or soon after) 2008, I mean.

> Again they were overruled by the US and we got a war in Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the largest war in Europe since WW2 today.

Yup. Judging from the facts, all because Georgia and Ukraine weren't admitted into NATO in (or soon after) 2008. Well, because of that, and mainly because the Russian people keep clinging on to a fucking dictator who does shit like that, of course. Time for a fucking revolution, perhaps? I've heard you've tried one of those before. Pro tip: Try not to replace one fucking dictator with another this time.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#409
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These people have experienced being part of ussr and really, really don’t want to go back. Source: am Eastern European

Russia isn't part of USSR either. Source: am Russian

No, Russia isn't part of the USSR any more: It's all that's left of it.[1] Source: am not Russian

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[1]: But, hey, don't despair: Belarus will join in any day now.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#410
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin wishes it still was.

Putin is not thinking about the USSR. He's not a communist and he is not interested in a soviet union. He is thinking about the pre-Tsarist Russian Empire. Which included a few countries that were not in the USSR.

AFAICS, it's all the same to him: If he were dreaming only of reviving the Tsarist (why "pre-"?) Russian Empire and not the Soviet Union, he'd hardly have gone on the record saying "the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of thetwentieth century".
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