Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#401

Post by verdverm » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:26 PM UTC

mindslight wrote: post #382

mathattack wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

> Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system You're assuming that increased profit margins will automatically increase supply chain buffers. But rather, the same incentive to hire too many financialists that "save the company money" will exist, and the extra profit margin will just go to increased dividends. And increasing the supply chain buffers won't help much right now either, it has to be d…

> You're assuming that increased profit margins will automatically increase supply chain buffers.

I read GP's comment as increase prices to decrease hoarding, which in theory could provide the slack in the system. Problem might be that certain products may not be viable if prices get too high. Only those with sufficient margins prior.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#402

Post by sandyarmstrong » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:28 PM UTC

throwawaygh wrote: post #385

cutemonster wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> picking and choosing which industries are important voting bases. And on a bribes and corruption basis, to some extent, too? For example, I never thought about what are the strategic industries, when voting.

> For example, I never thought about what are the strategic industries, when voting. You're clearly not a dairy producer in Wisconsin, a military contractor in Virginia/Maryland, or a property owner in Southern Pines, NC.

Yup! In 2008 I was in my first job, working for a defense contractor, and my boss seriously could not wrap his head around the idea of me voting for Obama. In his mind that should have gone completely against my own self-interest.

But he also saw the job as a lifetime career, which is partly generational and partly just a different mindset because a lot (most?) of the engineers there were former military.

I will say, though, that his mindset generally made for a very friendly and nurturing team experience.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#403

Post by unethical_ban » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:28 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

Indeed, there seems to be a difference worth noting between "industries that currently employ a large number of the population with little transfer of utility to other industry" and "objectively basic needs for a society".

I figure there are also different definitions of strategic depending on the size and capability of an economy. The US is large and geographically fortunate enough that it theoretically "could" be almost entirely self-sustaining if it set its mind to it. Fuel, semiconductors, transport, lumber, food, guns.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#404

Post by abfan1127 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:28 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #379

abfan1127 wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As if those things wouldn't innovate in the market? Or because 1 thing came from the government, then all things the government touches are gold?

This take might have some hindsight bias. While a lot of industry seem obvious and worth the investment today, when they were nascent that wasn't the case. Would GPS exist if private companies had to fund the rocket and satellite research just to tell you where you are on the map? Or would the aircraft industry exist? Most of those types of high-risk, nebulous reward (at least on short-to-near-term timescales) indust…

it certainly does have hindsight bias, on both sides. The Satellite TV and Radio industries spend the money to launch.

Back in the 90s (during the age of early GPS), Motorola (iirc) tried to launch a satellite phone company too.

NASA isn't that big of a customer. DirecTV was a huge consumer of rockets. As it turns out, SpaceX doesn't sell to them because they own their own rocket company.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#405

Post by starfallg » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:29 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #389

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

> Every country props up its auto industry, so why worry about a domestic supply? War. In the event a war breaks out, a running auto plant can be re-tooled relatively rapidly into a light and heavy armor plant. It's not even a question of whether allies could supply tanks and troop transports; it's about having domestic capacity to make them because enemies could execute blockades and disrupt allied resource supply.

That's the same reason why food security is so high up on domestic priorities also. If a country is dependant on other nations for food, then in case of war you just need to target their logistics chain to starve them into submission. All those subsidies make sense, if you view the nation-state as primarily concerned with its own survival.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#406

Post by nickthemagicman » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:29 PM UTC

selimthegrim wrote: post #250

nickthemagicman wrote: post #72

I looked for a simple non-electronic car recently to buy, and found out that the government has mandated numerous safety systems requiring electronics like backup cameras, no seatbelt alarms, blind spot monitoring, lane assist etc, and in the upcoming infrastructure bill there is a rider to add breathalyzers to every new car made in America. (ref below) Is there an officially designated cost/reduced risk ratio that p…

You might want to look up the marginal cost of a backup camera what with CCDs these days

The manufacturers add a significant markup I imagine.

My original point is what's the cost benefit ratio boundary of enforced safety laws?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#407

Post by flavius29663 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:30 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #389

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

> Every country props up its auto industry, so why worry about a domestic supply? War. In the event a war breaks out, a running auto plant can be re-tooled relatively rapidly into a light and heavy armor plant. It's not even a question of whether allies could supply tanks and troop transports; it's about having domestic capacity to make them because enemies could execute blockades and disrupt allied resource supply.

this. If you look at all the strategic industry subsidies, you will see this common denominator. Corn in the US is stupidly subsidized, so much corn that it ends up in car tanks. But guess who will not have a famine even if the worst war + disasters strike?

Car factories might not make good tanks, but the mechanical engineers and tooling knowledge is invaluable and can't be scaled up overnight.

Same with solar panels, there's a reason both Obama and Trump imposed protective tariffs. One of the few areas both parties agree to. PV panels are the future of energy, so you need to have domestic factories no matter the cost.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#408

Post by jimbokun » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:30 PM UTC

dimitrios1 wrote: post #224

throwawaygh wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

The solution to a market inefficiency isn't to involve a more inefficient entity.

This assumes an efficient global market, without interference from other state actors.

If other countries are implementing protectionist policies, like keeping semiconductors for themselves or supplying other nations first to curry favors or improved relationships, for example, it might be in another nations interest to increase fab capacity with its borders to avoid being vulnerable to those political and diplomatic factors.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#409

Post by starfallg » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:31 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #398

sonthonax wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that still true now?

Great question. It's still doctrinally true (i.e. governments believe it is true; it was one of the reasons cited for the US federal government buying key stake in domestic auto manufacturers instead of letting them go bankrupt during the real estate market crash), but whether light and heavy armor is actually of military worth in an era of drones and air power is a question I don't have the military training or know…

Yes, because heavy industry produces light and heavy armour, and heavy industry is also required to produce military drones and other weapons.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#410

Post by nickff » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 3:32 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

Highly visible industries tend to get a disproportionate number of subsidies, because the population can relate to them, and politicians aren't that clever either. Film and television are good examples, and fishing tends to get a lot of attention too.