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Delta Variant

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Re: Delta Variant

#401

Post by derbOac »

NeutralCrane wrote: post #288
derbOac wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much that vaccination is iatrogenic, it's that when you have a sizable percent vaccinated, but a sizable percent not, you're kind of in this worst of all possible worlds from an evolutionary standpoint. If worldwide vaccination rates were very high, it would drive viral transmission down to negligible levels and effectively slow the rate of evolution by decreasing the viral population size to something ve…

> It's not so much that vaccination is iatrogenic, it's that when you have a sizable percent vaccinated, but a sizable percent not, you're kind of in this worst of all possible worlds from an evolutionary standpoint. How is this any different from natural immunity? The immunity conferred by vaccines won't put any more selective pressure for escape mutations than natural immunity would. And the only alternative here i…

You might be right about natural immunity as an alternative. I think implicitly the idea is there's something incomplete about the vaccine antigen (however it gets presented) that might create a bigger "possibility surface" for mutations to develop that would retain the core functions of the virus but allow the virus to escape detection. As opposed to naturally acquired immunity, where your body has been exposed to the entire thing (but then has been exposed to the functional virus).

Let's say I tell you to look for a suspect. You say "ok, what do they look like?" In one case, I show you a picture of their face. In another case, I introduce you to them and let you inspect them completely and take whatever photos or do whatever 3d scanning you want. It's probably easier for the suspect to develop a disguise in the former case than the latter? Maybe not, but I think that's the general idea.

It is interesting to think about resistance evolution in the context of the specific vaccines that are available vs natural immunity. I seem to recall reading that the choice of viral components to target in the vaccines was done in part so as to leave little wiggle room for mutations, so you might be right about evolution of resistance relative to natural exposure. But theory and reality are always different.

FWIW, I'm not trying to imply people shouldn't get vaccinated, or that vaccines are somehow causing problems. There's just reasons to think that if vaccination rates aren't high enough, it's easier for the vaccines to become ineffective over time than if almost everyone were vaccinated.

Re: Delta Variant

#402

Post by didjathinkmess »

lamontcg wrote: post #381
didjathinkmess wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Those autoimmune conditions will either manifest in 90 days or they will not. Source? For the long term autoimmune effects of these vaccines, that is. No? Well that's because that information is unavailable because it hasn't been studied long term hence it can't be known. There are no long term studies. Hence the reluctance of many to get vaccinated. So that quoted statement can probably be banished to the world of…

> Source? The link I supplied was literally a source: https://www.uab.edu/reporter/resources/be-healthy/item/9544-... > 2. Vaccine side effects show up within weeks if at all > That is not to say that there have never been safety issues with vaccines. But in each instance, these have appeared soon after widespread use of the vaccine began. "The side effects that we see occur early on and that's it," Goepfert said. In…

Sorry, I said "source" when I should have specified "medical study". Your link reads more like marketing towards vaccination fence sitters than actual science. That isn't your fault though, there just isn't science to share. Why? Because we don't have future traveling time machines.

There is something quite amazing about your link however. The piece (about long term side effects from vaccines) notes the polio vaccine from the 1950s. It somehow omits mentioning Simian Virus 40, the cancer causing virus that was found in the polio vaccine. This vaccine was given to 100 million children and its estimated that 10% to 30% of those doses were contaminated.

I'm sure the doctors assured their parents back then that there were no side effects and certainly laughed off any mention of long term side effects. The price to be paid for trust in these vaccines? Their children growing up to develop brain cancer in their 50s and 60s, decades after they were assured how safe they were.

Re: Delta Variant

#403

Post by bvaldivielso »

throwaway954823 wrote: post #159
bvaldivielso wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I understand (I don't have any background in biology), mutations will happen regardless of whether people are vaccinated or not. There might be mutations that make the virus circumvent some vaccine protections, but those mutations would take place even if we weren't vaccinating people. Nothing about the vaccines "guides" the virus towards specific mutations. Mutations are random. If this is correct, why wou…

It depends if the vaccine is sterilizing (destroys the virus) or leaky (symptoms are prevented but virus is not destroyed). Leaky vaccines do change evolutionary pressure and increase the likelihood of escape variants. For a case study in the worst case outcomes of leaky vaccines, see Marek's disease [1]. It seems like the mRNA vaccines are at least partially leaky, so there have been concerns raised and alarms sound…

If the argument is "we shouldn't use vaccines because of escape variants" then I don't see why we should fear escape variants more than we do any other kind of variants.

If the argument is "we should build up a big inventory of vaccines and infrastructure to deploy them to the population in a very short timespan" then I see some logic to that but it's not at all obvious that the math works out.

Re: Delta Variant

#404

Post by bwship »

basementcat wrote: post #325
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

It might not be a big deal if you get COVID but it would suck to be the immunocompromised individual (or a friend/family relation to the individual) who might get COVID from you.

That person would presumably be vaccinated, thus they wouldn't get the virus from him. Why does everyone talk about how the vaccine works, but then use this argument against people that don't want to get the vaccine?

Re: Delta Variant

#405

Post by blindmute »

basementcat wrote: post #325
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

It might not be a big deal if you get COVID but it would suck to be the immunocompromised individual (or a friend/family relation to the individual) who might get COVID from you.

Yep, that would suck for them. Anyone who is fearful of getting covid should get the vaccine. If they get vaccinated and I still end up transmitting it to them, then that sucks, but again, people get sick and that's life. I'm willing to acknowledge my selfishness in this matter.

Re: Delta Variant

#406

Post by bamboozled »

evgen wrote: post #344
bamboozled wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All it tells us if that in the very short term, it seems safe. Great. When we know more about the long term, then people will be more happy to take it?

No, it is far more likely at that point that you will just trot out some other excuse.

No. I really hope that it’s safe, I can take it without fear and never look back.

If you think I’m really against vaccines you’re wrong.

Re: Delta Variant

#407

Post by floxy »

bigodbiel wrote: post #390
floxy wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the latest on asymptomatic spread for covid-19? Last update I had seen was that this wasn't likely. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Asymptomatic is not pre-symptomatic.

What's the latest information on presymptomatic spreading?

Re: Delta Variant

#408

Post by blindmute »

motohagiography wrote: post #359
blindmute wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea, just comply with evil so you can maybe fight it later. But right now, be sure to comply.

I'm glad you mentioned evil, because that's the conversation that isn't being had, and it's the personal belief factor that is driving a lot of private decisions. For us to spout talking points about noisy data just talks around these deeply held beliefs, and I think the only hope is from addressing those directly. I happen to have some rare professional insight into how evil this all may get, but if it's as bad as I…

I don't really see this as a hill I'm dying on. More than half my friends are not taking it. My work doesn't care. I don't live in a dystopian city with vaxxine passports. My life, actually, has not been negatively affected at all by not taking this shot, other than the internet ridicule. So I don't really agree with your argument; it's not like I'm ruining myself.

Re: Delta Variant

#409

Post by bamboozled »

mindslight wrote: post #377
bamboozled wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's you're deal then? You just feel strongly I should take the vaccine? Where I live, what I do for work has really made no impact on my quality of life, so I don't give a fish about the virus or the vaccine. It's funny to me that you say you deliberated, then you took it, and now I'm being "unscientific" for deliberating in the same way. But somehow you've made the scientific choice because you felt 6 months was…

I'm not going to argue that you, Internet Stranger, should get the vaccine. I will tell my friends they need to be vaccinated if they want to hang out. I respect people's right to make their own informed decisions, but not to repeat disinformation. I've pointed out exactly how your framing is unscientific for privileging one option ("do nothing") above the rest, but you keep brushing past that. I shared my story in t…

If we’re planning on vaccinating the entire population of the human race I think it would’ve been better give the vaccine to the most vulnerable and at least have a 3 year study done and focus on treatments in the meantime before giving it to younger people.

I’ve read good things about Ivermectin for example, where’s the rushed controlled clinical trial of that ? A drug we do know is safe, cheap and widely available ?

Also if you look into it, there are actually valid questions being asked such as, what causes heart inflammation and attacks? Why isn’t that more understood. How was it missed in initial trials ? What is the mechanism causing that? [1]

Doesn’t seem right we should give young otherwise healthy men heart troubles ?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/heart-inflammation-after-co...

Re: Delta Variant

#410

Post by lamontcg »

bookofsand wrote: post #398
lamontcg wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. It was not rushed. We have 250 years of experience with vaccinations and when their side effects happen. And longer with viruses and their autoimmune effects. After a day or three the vaccine is completely gone from your system, all that remains is the immune effects, the possible side effects are all autoimmune conditions. Tho…

Traditional vaccines != Genetic vector vaccines Traditional vaccines: Expose the immune system to an inactivated pathogen. The immune system stochastically learns to target a number of proteins specific to the pathogen. Genetic vector vaccines: Expose a small number of cells to genetic material that instructs them to create a specific protein chosen by the vaccine developer. The immune system then learns to target th…

We have hundreds of years of experience with viral genetic vectors. There's a whole subfield of rheumatology dealing with autoimmune conditions triggered by viruses.

The mRNA vaccines are just a single protein not the whole virus and it never gets assembled so its using considerably less cellular machinery than a real virus would.

We've literally studied this shit for hundreds of years, and we're using less moving parts that would happen with a real infectious virus.

Cold fact: this is not unknown territory at all.

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