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Delta Variant

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Re: Delta Variant

#381

Post by lamontcg »

didjathinkmess wrote: post #321
lamontcg wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. It was not rushed. We have 250 years of experience with vaccinations and when their side effects happen. And longer with viruses and their autoimmune effects. After a day or three the vaccine is completely gone from your system, all that remains is the immune effects, the possible side effects are all autoimmune conditions. Tho…

>Those autoimmune conditions will either manifest in 90 days or they will not. Source? For the long term autoimmune effects of these vaccines, that is. No? Well that's because that information is unavailable because it hasn't been studied long term hence it can't be known. There are no long term studies. Hence the reluctance of many to get vaccinated. So that quoted statement can probably be banished to the world of…

> Source?

The link I supplied was literally a source:

https://www.uab.edu/reporter/resources/be-healthy/item/9544-...

> 2. Vaccine side effects show up within weeks if at all

> That is not to say that there have never been safety issues with vaccines. But in each instance, these have appeared soon after widespread use of the vaccine began. "The side effects that we see occur early on and that's it," Goepfert said. In virtually all cases, vaccine side effects are seen within the first two months after rollout.

That is citing the director of the University's Vaccine Research Clinic.

Re: Delta Variant

#382

Post by RickJWagner »

franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

I thought it was odd, to see a chart like 'New Cases / 1000 people', instead of simply gross numbers. Gross numbers would have highlighted different states, placing 'blame' in a different way.

It does seem a narrative is being spun.

Re: Delta Variant

#383

Post by vladTheInhaler »

api wrote: post #162
usrusr wrote: post #32

Is seems kind of logical in hindsight: the first mutation of the predecessor bat/pangolin/whatever virus genome to cross over to humans is an MVP full of "compatibility bugs" that barely achieves R0>1. A few billion dicerolls later many of those "compatibility bugs" have found fixes. Remember the hand washing phase of the pandemic? Aerosol transmission was basically ruled out because it was assumed that spread would…

This is also why vaccination is so critical and why "young healthy people" should not opt out: when you get the virus, even if it's a mild case, you are in effect donating processing power to what amounts to a global supercomputing project to evolve more virulent strains of COVID. That's how evolution works. The more chances the virus has to replicate, the more likely it is to become more virulent or even worse learn…

This raises a point that I have been pondering for a while.

When we are living in a "state of nature" we have a very small circle of concern, mostly around things like finding enough food, avoiding predators, and creating shelter. Having correct opinions about these subjects is a matter of life and death. But when we introduce society things get kind of unbalanced.

We start getting information about all kinds of events from outside our immediate surroundings, which is really exciting to the "opinion having" part of our brains. But we aren't really accountable for those opinions - we won't die if we think the moon landing is fake, or Obama is a lizard-person. So it allows for a lot of "mental rot" to accumulate unchecked.

The beliefs that have the most direct impacts on us are still heavily constrained though. Stuff like "My boss will fire me if I stop coming to work" or "I will be hungry later if I don't buy groceries" etc. largely keep society functional. But we don't actually have any sort of consensus reality - we just think we do because people's crazy beliefs don't usually impinge on the public sphere. And without any evidence to the contrary, we just sort of assume other people think roughly what we do.

But with issues like COVID-19, suddenly everyone's crazy opinions about which secret society is using 5G to control our minds actually matter a great deal. And as society becomes more interconnected, those things will matter more and more. How can we solve collective action problems like climate change or pandemic response when we can't agree on basic facts about the world? It seems possible that "society" as a whole might be an unsustainable condition. It can last long enough that we become dependent on each other, but then it destroys itself because of that interdependence.

Re: Delta Variant

#384

Post by murgindrag »

ithkuil wrote: post #338
murgindrag wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't take issue with your conclusions, but I do with your arguments. I think precision and correctness are important, since a lot of vaccine skepticism comes from people making incorrect arguments. > 1. I don't trust authorities to pull off a major conspiracy (and hide the data of bad vaccine effects). I do trust the authorities to be incompetent enough not to collect such data. > 2. I don't trust governments abil…

Groupthink is indeed a real problem, but if you really believe all it takes is groupthink to hide severe side effects (possibly deaths) of vaccines that would compete in magnitude with covid causalities, you should entertain the possibility you're engaging in a groupthink of another polarity. I mean, sure. Governments have been and will be dishonest and lying and have been and will be again caught red handed. They al…

I don't think OP's logic requires side effects of vaccines to be anywhere close to COVID19 causalities. It's a personal decision.

Without vaccines, at present, my risk of COVID19 would be marginal at best:

- I live in an area with a high vaccination rate, and a low incidence rate

- I take pretty strong precautions, including proper masks (which are probably more effective than vaccines), and pretty strong social distancing, which I can do working from home.

I'm vaccinated, but if I wasn't, my odds of catching COVID19 would be nominal at best.

That's different than, for example, a retail worker.

If I didn't believe vaccines were perfectly safe, OP's decision wouldn't be crazy. I am a general-purpose nerd, and I know enough biology to make an informed decision without relying on political authority figures. If that wasn't the case, I might make the same decision as OP.

Now, I can do the math on why, if many people make the same decision as OP, we'll have a serious problem, but again, most people (not OP specifically) can't do math.

You can have empathy without agreement.

Re: Delta Variant

#385

Post by rcxdude »

mandmandam wrote: post #370
throwitaway1235 wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for providing numbers.

Here, try numbers from an actual study: "Clot risk to 18-39s from AstraZeneca vaccine is twice as high as Covid death risk, Euro study finds" - https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html

Those are not the numbers requested, given mRNA vaccines was specifically asked for.

Re: Delta Variant

#386

Post by raydev »

bamboozled wrote: post #214
OzyM wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-sterilizing vaccines still reduce viral load, decreasing the amount of active viral particles in circulation. There are plenty of vaccines we use to curb epidemics that aren't full sterilizing vaccines. For the COVID-19 U.S. vaccines in particular: > Preliminary data from the clinical trials among adults ≥18 years old suggest COVID-19 vaccination may also protect against asymptomatic infection.[0] [0] https://www…

Cool, so if everyone else takes it, I won't really need to and I'll likely be safe? Everyone seems absolutely hell bent on taking it immediately, so if that's the case, it's pretty good news for those who'd like some more time to evaluate.

Surely you understand that you are surrounded by millions of others acting the same as you are, so you remain at high risk of catching COVID.

Re: Delta Variant

#387

Post by renewiltord »

seriousquestion wrote: post #361
vmception wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> mixing deaths in one country with infections in another so basically like the last 15 months there is a clear separation of critical thinkers on this planet such that we are almost two different species if it wasnt for the viable offspring

Now the question is how do we correct for this? How do we get the critical thinkers in the headlines and fear merchants on the sidelines?

Why would you? If you're a critical thinker who can exploit a knowledge advantage over the world, your life will get better faster than the life of non-critical thinkers, and they, in turn, will have their lives improve faster than that of a critical thinker fighting against the weight of non-critical-thinkers.

The optimal strategy for all people unable to determine if they're critical thinkers is to either go with the weight of opinion or to attempt to exploit their edge. The middle where you try to convince people is just free labour.

Re: Delta Variant

#388

Post by ceejayoz »

mandmandam wrote: post #370
throwitaway1235 wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for providing numbers.

Here, try numbers from an actual study: "Clot risk to 18-39s from AstraZeneca vaccine is twice as high as Covid death risk, Euro study finds" - https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html

They asked specifically about Pfizer/Moderna and myocarditis. You've got the wrong vaccine and the wrong condition.

Re: Delta Variant

#389

Post by bigodbiel »

effie wrote: post #259
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

I've noticed this is not U.S. specific, so it is not a political polarization in the traditional sense. The broader world-wide phenomenon, visible also here, is that most people got divided into two camps: 1) "COVID-19 is so dangerous that we must restrict freedoms", "the other camp is a harm to society's health" 2) "COVID-19 is not that dangerous, mortality below 2% (or even lower depending on how it is calculated)…

If the War on Terror serves as any example, those freedoms and rights lost, will never be returned.

Re: Delta Variant

#390

Post by bigodbiel »

floxy wrote: post #340
dragontamer wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID19's main issue is that it takes anywhere from 5 to 14 days before you feel symptoms. During this window, it looks like you're still spreading COVID19 around. Therefore: traditional means of preventing spread (ie: staying home from work and/or school) are ineffective. Measles or Ebola (or plenty of other diseases) have a much smaller window of spreading (because you feel sick sooner).

What's the latest on asymptomatic spread for covid-19? Last update I had seen was that this wasn't likely. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Asymptomatic is not pre-symptomatic.
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