Earlier quoted context omitted.
The central component of the American Dream is that, once you're rich, the government will do everything in its power to make sure you remain rich.
Please describe that mechanism for me.
Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
401–410 of 527 posts
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#402Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their mandate requires a stable financial system with solvent institutions and sufficient liquidity moving through the system. By definition, solvency and liquidity at the country level depend on major asset classes maintaining some amount of value. That baseline changes based on regulations of what can or cannot be used as collateral for different measures, what ratios institutions have to maintain, etc, but there i…
The problem with this is that no amount of efforts by CBs can cure solvency risk, and attempts to do so only exacerbate moral hazards and make those collateral valuations even more fragile since the fundamentals underlying the collateral valuations, like cashflows and trust between counterparties, will continue to decline.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#403Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…
It might require the added context of living here. San Francisco has one of the highest property crime rates in the United States [1], and Walgreens is a popular target of shoplifters, who regularly clear out entire shelves of merchandise. The company hasn't come out and said it, but some believe that rampant shoplifting is a reason why eight Walgreens locations in the city have been permanently closed [2]. [1] https…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/dec/...
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#404Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Federal Reserve manages both the money supply and unemployment, generally against GDP growth targets. Real estate --- residential, commercial, and industrial --- is among the largest asset classes in the financial system, and it acts as collateral and backing of loans and other financial instruments. Those in turn affect banks and their own ability to generate loans, themselves much of the total money supply. Whe…
Propping up assets isn’t in their mandate though.
Beginning with the 2008 GFC, this was expanded to buying "distressed assets" (https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/11/10/fed-takes-step-in...). This was, and remains, controversial (as noted in the WSJ link), and poorly understood (I'm still not certain I grasp it well, let alone fully, myself).
My understanding is that the Fed's goal isn't profit, but of buying money into, or selling assets, and hence money out of existence. The Fed's asset-buying targets are better thought of as liquidity-injection targets (where liquidity is money created by the Fed to be injected into the economy). The Fed stabilises asset prices as a buyer of last resort, incidentally to its primary goal of both ensuring sufficient money in the economy and in creating greater ceertainty in asset values which allows banks to function.
The Fed can always buy assets or lend money, as it has the sole power (save the US Treasury) to create money without restriction. And in practice, it makes profit on these transactions (which is contributed to the US Treasury).
The distortionary effects on risk and incentives ... remains fuzzy to me.
This is largely my own conceptualisation, it seems generally to agree with other explanations, and smells strongly of MMT.
I may be badly mistaken, however.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#405As a homeowner in San Francisco... this is great. The cost of living has been too high here for ages, and the prices distort both our society and the economy. It'll be rough for speculators, but in the medium term everyone will come out stronger. After the pandemic, we'll have the chance to see real businesses start here that don't rely on giant checks from VCs for viability; new restaurants will see more opportuniti…
Ghost towns are not the same small towns. Larger cities become ghost cities not go back to being smaller.
SF is lot more likely to become Detroit if businesses leave, everyone should worry about that.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#406Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's hard for me to think about how else to measure manager productivity. Managers don't usually submit code themselves.
Lots of people in a business aren't submitting code, but that's not really my point. Depending on a manager's style they can increase synchronization overhead between team members and different teams to the point that everyone's productivity is reduced while the manager has never been busier or productive on paper.
A "productive" manager that slows down the team isn't an effective manager at all, no matter how hard he or she is working.
The manager might be able to scapegoat a poor team member or two when poor results become evident, but sooner or later, he or she will have to pay the piper.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#407As a homeowner in San Francisco... this is great. The cost of living has been too high here for ages, and the prices distort both our society and the economy. It'll be rough for speculators, but in the medium term everyone will come out stronger. After the pandemic, we'll have the chance to see real businesses start here that don't rely on giant checks from VCs for viability; new restaurants will see more opportuniti…
Only SF residents can say and mean this, no city wants jobs to go away. It is not just jobs you don't like that goes, those jobs support and pays for a lot of other jobs in the area. They also a pay lot in taxes which keeps the city running Ghost towns are not the same small towns. Larger cities become ghost cities not go back to being smaller. SF is lot more likely to become Detroit if businesses leave, everyone sho…
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#408Earlier quoted context omitted.
In what way? In Harlow, government took a hands off approach on zoning and oversight and let the free market figure out housing for the country's poorest. It all seems very similar to me. I'm sure at the start they also thought they were turning defunct office space into desirable apartments too.
The article linked by the comment I replied to stated this: > Smith is one of hundreds of residents placed at Terminus House in Harlow by councils in and around London, often many miles from everything and everybody they once knew. I'm not familiar with the specifics of UK subsidized housing, but it sure sounds like the residents were placed in this building by government.
Councils used to be the biggest house builders in the UK.
Then the neoliberals decided that was silly and the free-market could sort it. So they banned councils from building houses in the 80s. House builds plummeted from 300k per year to 30k per year. Plus they forced the council to get rid of their affordable housing by letting people buy their council house from the council.
So now, when poor people who are guaranteed a house need one, the council have to buy a slot from the free market (and obviously need to go for cheap).
Now the UK has a housing crisis.
Yay, free market.
Basically, the opposite of what you think. The council didn't 'choose' to put people there, they were forced to by the market and disasterous neo-liberal policies.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#409https://zwischenzugs.com/2020/07/25/the-halving-of-the-centr...
The ramifications are pretty bad in London, but I imagine even worse in SF, where there's such a predominance of remote-friendly work.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#410A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).
There is a mass exodus of people from HCOL cities as jobs go virtual as well as a massive amount of office downsizing. Residential real estate may be okay in the cities receiving this exodus in the South, Midwest, Texas, Idaho, etc. but as for HCOL cities I’m just not sure. There may be enough demand to at least cushion it. Commercial will definitely be a bloodbath of epic proportions, especially in formerly hot mark…