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The Strongest El Niño Ever

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Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#41

Post by usrnm »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #4

The buried lede: What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set u…

> if not a heat pump

Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems fitted to use the existing piping in old homes and is used only for heating. Such installations can, in theory, be used for cooling, but very inefficiently.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#42

Post by windexh8er »

jonwinstanley wrote: post #26
gonzalohm wrote: post #16

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

Well, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about

We're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things.

So we're doing something, but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#43

Post by dom96 »

usrnm wrote: post #41
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #4

The buried lede: What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set u…

> if not a heat pump Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems fitted to use the existing piping in old homes and is used only for heating. Such installations can, in theory, be used for cooling, but very inefficiently.

The annoying thing is that UK at least has a bigger grant for air-to-water systems.

I've been doing some research into this, because I would ideally like to get this system so I can make use of the existing radiators in my old house, but I do also want to have the option of cooling my home. It does seem like Fan Coil Units (FCUs) are an option for this. Anyone have experience with these? Are they really inefficient compared to standard air-to-air units?

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#44

Post by gmuslera »

gonzalohm wrote: post #16

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

That should be the scary part. We know how El Niño affects world's weather, but it is also a symptom of how much heat the ocean is absorbing.

That core problem won't end this year or the next one, and it will keep disrupting global climate. And with it, agriculture, settlements, economy and civilization as we know it.

And the scariest part is what we do about it. Keep doing activities that rise global temperature and power up positive feedback loops, weakening or abolishing climate policies, and when things start to feel urgent will try things by the fast way with unclear outcomes.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#47

Post by tpurves »

tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #37
cogman10 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario No, it's not end of the world. 3C is where things start getting bad. 1.5C is the target for the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try and avoid hitting 2C. We are looking at more severe droughts, flash floods, and rising oceans where we are at, but not the worst of it like mass 40C wet bulb heat domes which wipe out all life underneath them.

[flagged]

Well that's a relief, glad I am a turtle then and so are most of my friends, and that our whole world economy and food system runs on turtles. So we should be fine.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#48

Post by inigyou »

windexh8er wrote: post #42
jonwinstanley wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about

We're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things. So we're doing something , but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.

DC water consumption is a red herring. That water is returned back to its source but warmer.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#49

Post by measurablefunc »

buybackoff wrote: post #21

I've seen dozens of videos and articles about this strongest ever event. And I still have no clue if the next year I should evacuate from Paris for the summer because heatwaves may be even crazier than this year, or prolonged heavy rains are more likely and can make the city more livable.

Water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect so I don't think rain is going to make it better.

Re: The Strongest El Niño Ever

#50

Post by MrGilbert »

tjwebbnorfolk wrote: post #37
cogman10 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario No, it's not end of the world. 3C is where things start getting bad. 1.5C is the target for the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try and avoid hitting 2C. We are looking at more severe droughts, flash floods, and rising oceans where we are at, but not the worst of it like mass 40C wet bulb heat domes which wipe out all life underneath them.

[flagged]

I wonder if "but the turtles survived and I was right!" is the best way to look at it if humanity is close to extinction in the next century or so.
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