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Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

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Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#41

Post by duaneb »

rthomas6 wrote: post #21
Petrushka wrote: post #9

I have the Washington Post from Jan 1, 2000. Below the fold is an article on what the future would hold tech-wise for a child born that day. By 2010, we were all supposed to be wearing wristbands with all of our medical information on it, so doctors would simply have to scan them to gain our history. We also wouldn't have cheap (meaning not thousands upon thousands of dollars) mobile computers with the ability to acc…

What is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea. What would it take to start something like that?

+ Privacy.

+ People don't know how good it would be until it's actually used, so adaption would be slow.

+ No real financial gain- health providers just add the cost of bureaucracy into the bill.

So yes, it would be cool/useful, but there's not exactly a huge need for it (and many potential problems).

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#42

Post by pavel_lishin »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #22

Everytime these predictions are made, the outcome seems to be the exact opposite. That said, in 2030 I predict: - After toying with 3D printers for a while, they will go back to vat-grown organs - With widespread Internet access, remote work being a reality and local energy generation, people will leave the big cities seeking better life quality in smaller, country-side cities - There won't be brain chips

> people will leave the big cities seeking better life quality in smaller, country-side cities

"quality of life" is subjective. I've lived in the countryside, and while it's nice to sit on your porch and sip wine and watch the sunset, it's also nice to have a wide selection of nightlife.

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#44

Post by hcarvalhoalves »

TDL wrote: post #29
hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #22

Everytime these predictions are made, the outcome seems to be the exact opposite. That said, in 2030 I predict: - After toying with 3D printers for a while, they will go back to vat-grown organs - With widespread Internet access, remote work being a reality and local energy generation, people will leave the big cities seeking better life quality in smaller, country-side cities - There won't be brain chips

Interesting, the second point flies right in the face of the entire arc of written history. Humanity has been increasingly migrating to urban areas. I doubt that changes with the pervasiveness of the internet.

The problem is that those predictions are about taking the current trend line and extrapolating it ad infinitum, while nature and history shows us that most patterns are cyclical.

Just in the past 100 years, my country (Brazil) has seen people move from rural to urban to rural again.

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#45

Post by rthomas6 »

duaneb wrote: post #41
rthomas6 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea. What would it take to start something like that?

+ Privacy. + People don't know how good it would be until it's actually used, so adaption would be slow. + No real financial gain- health providers just add the cost of bureaucracy into the bill. So yes, it would be cool/useful, but there's not exactly a huge need for it (and many potential problems).

For it to be useful, I think it would have to lessen the bureaucracy of patient records, and decrease medication mistakes by being more searchable and accessible than current record systems. If it were done correctly, I believe there would be a financial gain. Maybe not for the patients, but for the medical care providers.

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#46

Post by purplelobster »

TDL wrote: post #29
hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #22

Everytime these predictions are made, the outcome seems to be the exact opposite. That said, in 2030 I predict: - After toying with 3D printers for a while, they will go back to vat-grown organs - With widespread Internet access, remote work being a reality and local energy generation, people will leave the big cities seeking better life quality in smaller, country-side cities - There won't be brain chips

Interesting, the second point flies right in the face of the entire arc of written history. Humanity has been increasingly migrating to urban areas. I doubt that changes with the pervasiveness of the internet.

I wouldn't be so sure. If it becomes feasible to work remotely all the time, I would love to live in a smaller city or the countryside, and I'd be more free to live close to my family and friends. Right now, we move cross country and away from any friends or family we have, just for a new job. Rinse and repeat after 10 years. It can lead to a lonely existence, but for a highly specialized work force it's very necessary today.

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#47

Post by MichaelSalib »

rthomas6 wrote: post #21
Petrushka wrote: post #9

I have the Washington Post from Jan 1, 2000. Below the fold is an article on what the future would hold tech-wise for a child born that day. By 2010, we were all supposed to be wearing wristbands with all of our medical information on it, so doctors would simply have to scan them to gain our history. We also wouldn't have cheap (meaning not thousands upon thousands of dollars) mobile computers with the ability to acc…

What is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea. What would it take to start something like that?

Note that this doesn't solve a problem that providers have right now.

For people with serious medical conditions that need to communicate that to EMS, we have physical medalert bracelets that can tell healthcare providers that you have diabetes or epelipsy. That technology works even if your provider doesn't have power or reliable internet.

Most patient provider interactions don't require history transmission because you're at a scheduled office visit or your in emergency care at a facility that is part of your giant local health network. In those cases, providers can look up your name (that they can get from your wallet even if you're not conscious) in their database and find all they need. They don't have to worry about synchronizing data with arbitrary providers and trying to remap their ontologies or deal with lossy translations.

The number of cases where providers need fine grained history information for people that they've never treated before and they need it right NOW and can't afford to wait is...very small relative to the volume of patients treated. I mean, if you've been shot in the chest, the ER is going to focus on keeping you from bleeding to death rather than poring through a history to note that you're allergic to ragweed pollen, have slightly elevated blood pressure and fractured your tibia 8 years ago.

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#49

Post by duaneb »

rthomas6 wrote: post #45
duaneb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+ Privacy. + People don't know how good it would be until it's actually used, so adaption would be slow. + No real financial gain- health providers just add the cost of bureaucracy into the bill. So yes, it would be cool/useful, but there's not exactly a huge need for it (and many potential problems).

For it to be useful, I think it would have to lessen the bureaucracy of patient records, and decrease medication mistakes by being more searchable and accessible than current record systems. If it were done correctly, I believe there would be a financial gain. Maybe not for the patients, but for the medical care providers.

I agree, but providers (especially recently) have been notoriously poor with pricing. I don't see them making an effort unless the entire industry is forced to reduce costs (which it should, hopefully soon!).

Re: Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030

#50

Post by lifeisstillgood »

rthomas6 wrote: post #21
Petrushka wrote: post #9

I have the Washington Post from Jan 1, 2000. Below the fold is an article on what the future would hold tech-wise for a child born that day. By 2010, we were all supposed to be wearing wristbands with all of our medical information on it, so doctors would simply have to scan them to gain our history. We also wouldn't have cheap (meaning not thousands upon thousands of dollars) mobile computers with the ability to acc…

What is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea. What would it take to start something like that?

Firstly it's your data so the better question is really why don't I have a web page with my medical records encrypted on them and key sign my local doctors when he wants to update them

This is a much much better way round, but two things hold it back - well three.

1. Key sign? PKi? Wtf?

2. Doctors actually don't want many records to be available to the patient - it frankly compromises medical care (heard the phrase GOMER - Get Out Of My ER. Much diagnosis is still hunch and guesswork - and needs to be carefully phrased If patient will read it

3. We still think something centralised should track all our medical care when really something decentralised is much much better

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