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Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

dallasfed.org

41–50 of 54 posts

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#41

In a properly functioning market, new supply would be built when there is new demand. Perhaps they should try to figure out why that isn't happening.

Housing suffers from being based on a naturally scarce resource land. Markets drive prices higher but new land cannot be created

If only builders could figure out some way to consolidate multiple living units under single roof, with shared building systems. Maybe something in the vertical dimension?

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#42

In a properly functioning market, new supply would be built when there is new demand. Perhaps they should try to figure out why that isn't happening.

I think housing isn't an ordinary durable good the way economists think. If there was a shortage of toasters you couldn't make money by churning toasters like you can if there is a shortage of housing. But you could make money importing toasters. With housing when there is a shortage the effective way to make money is by using access to cheap credit to bid prices higher.

So a housing price spiral is a result of a properly functioning market.

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#43
post #15

You know, if they'd said 5%, I would buy it. 30% is a lie on the face of it. No one single factor dies that much.

If I hadn't been hearing that the illegal immigrant population has remained unchanged at approximately 11 million _for decades_, I'd probably agree with you. I think a lot of people are truly in denial about just how many illegal immigrants are in the country, and they all need housing.

11/330 is about 3% of the US population. No way 3% of the people are causing 30% of the price rise. Beyond that, if the number has stayed constant for decades, the market has had time to incorporate them. I stand by 30% being, if not a lie, thoroughly suspicious.

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#45
post #30

The research is impressive in its granularity. However, they seem to simply assert causality. It would seem far more likely that people (illegal or not) move to areas experiencing economic booms that, among other things, is push up home prices.

This is a detailed study performed by experts. Do you believe they would overlook such obvious explanation? I'm sorry, but your argument sounds like the typical HN oversimplification that leads people to say they could build Dropbox in a weekend.

> Do you believe they would overlook such obvious explanation?

Do you think they have a motive to generate a specific response? It's an appropriate question to ask about any source.

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#46
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing suffers from being based on a naturally scarce resource land. Markets drive prices higher but new land cannot be created

If only builders could figure out some way to consolidate multiple living units under single roof, with shared building systems. Maybe something in the vertical dimension?

That would violate many local zoning laws. NIMBY!

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#47

In a properly functioning market, new supply would be built when there is new demand. Perhaps they should try to figure out why that isn't happening.

In the USA, lots of housing construction is done by illegal immigrants--it's hard to get people to put on roofs of sheetrock in 37⁰C weather if they have alternatives.

In the latest migration, a fair number were given government support and consumed housing instead of building it.

And yes, the immigration policy of the US is self-destructive. For some reason, the responses seem to ignore the complexity....

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#48
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing suffers from being based on a naturally scarce resource land. Markets drive prices higher but new land cannot be created

If only builders could figure out some way to consolidate multiple living units under single roof, with shared building systems. Maybe something in the vertical dimension?

Oh no, but this might mean a hideous three-flat on my otherwise perfect block of identical white-picket-fences! Or God forbid, a duplex

And you know what kind of people live in apartments...

(That being me and most every other person in my neighborhood lol; we're all such animals, us apartment-dwellers, i can see why people would hate having young families, retired couples, and single professionals living on their street! We're a constant stream of boring mediocrity!)

Sarcasm aside: the best neighborhoods are always where there's a mix of housing and easy access to entertainment and chores. The suburbs i grew up in don't make the cut, but every neighborhood I've inhabited since--from college town "city centers" to quiet corners of the north side of Chicago--this is the common factor. Whether i was in a house, an apartment, a duplex, whatever, the good ones are where there's a real mix of housing stock, incomes, family situations, etc and you can get to a grocery store, pharmacy, doctor, or whatever in under 10 minutes, bonus points for being open at night. Visiting family in American exurbs is a major exercise in patience and planning (and driving)

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#49
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I hadn't been hearing that the illegal immigrant population has remained unchanged at approximately 11 million _for decades_, I'd probably agree with you. I think a lot of people are truly in denial about just how many illegal immigrants are in the country, and they all need housing.

11/330 is about 3% of the US population. No way 3% of the people are causing 30% of the price rise. Beyond that, if the number has stayed constant for decades, the market has had time to incorporate them. I stand by 30% being, if not a lie, thoroughly suspicious.

The point of GP is that the number of illegal immigrants has in fact dramatically increased over that decades-long period, and the people continuing to claim 11 million are at best grossly uninformed.

Re: Dallas Fed: 30% of housing cost increase driven by unauthorized immigration [pdf]

#50

In a properly functioning market, new supply would be built when there is new demand. Perhaps they should try to figure out why that isn't happening.

Housing suffers from being based on a naturally scarce resource land. Markets drive prices higher but new land cannot be created

There is plenty of land for housing already. It is just constrained by zoning.
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