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Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

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Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#41

Post by stetrain »

m3kw9 wrote: post #12

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

Tesla's own expectation six years ago was that they would be selling 20 million cars annually by 2030:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...

Tesla's recent annual car sales:

2023: 1.81M

2024: 1.79M

2025: 1.64M

Elon's failed timeline predictions about self-driving and Robotaxi fleets are too numerous to attempt to cite here.

What has mostly exceeded expectations about Tesla is their stock price compared to actual productivity.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#42

Post by criddell »

ck2 wrote: post #20

I'm still struggling with the idea that 4,400 millionaires are going to be created overnight (out of 22,000 employees) Because many of them are going to sell sell sell at least half of their shares Which then means the value will PLUMMET

I take it you are going to be shorting the stock?

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#43

Post by bluGill »

malfist wrote: post #4
SXX wrote: post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

Sorry, but I'm not pricing a stock today based on the assumption that this country will turn into a theocratic autocracy with a 70% YoY inflation rate for 15 years. Besides, if I was pricing that in, I'd be buying indexes and not a specific stock. The 70% YoY inflation would rise all tides. Not just SpaceX.

If inflation is really that high I'm buying hard assets that won't depreciate. Sure I will need some cash, but gold bars in my personal safe suddenly are a great investment (gold is generally a terrible investment, but when inflation is the main concern is is really good)

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#44

Post by ActionHank »

m3kw9 wrote: post #12

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

[flagged]

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#45

Post by MPSimmons »

d_silin wrote: post #32

SpaceX already blown through a number of "... but this cannot be!" forecasts. Would not discount them easily.

SpaceX's entire history is full of, "there's no way they'll ever do X", followed by them doing it.

They definitely haven't hit all of their goals, but I don't think anything they want to do is impossible, just really difficult.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#47

Post by scottyah »

zuzululu wrote: post #14
SXX wrote: post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

at that inflation rate the US dollar would lose its reserve currency status so I doubt it at some point interest rates should reach double digits like in the 70s following oil crisis the only crazy scenario for spaceX is it does space exploration/mining and finds something extremely exotic or valuable and sought after.

I get the feeling that in 5yrs or so if China makes the yuan free-floating it will be more of a reserve currency.

All spaceX has to do is keep being as innovative and industrious as it is now, in the physical world as all other companies are getting very lazy or just working on software. Eventually it'll probably go the way of GE because humans are humans, but I think we have a few decades until more compelling places to work come up.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#50

Post by sleepyguy »

The US consumer cellular subscription service is around 185 billion a year and if you add business/enterprise it is around 225 billion a year. If they were able (highly unlikely) to capture that market in the US alone through Satellite Cellular service, it would be huge revenue stream. Setting up data centers in orbit (easier said than done) would be another huge revenue stream. Setting up facilities to beam down energy to earths surface could also be an opportunity.

If I learned a good lesson, it's never say never....

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