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American aviation is near collapse?

theatlantic.com

41–50 of 118 posts

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#42

A lot of core services in the US are near collapse, because society focuses on short-term value extraction, over long term success. If you look at the US's history, there was a much better balance between the two (with the core being seen as a lever towards future wealth). You see this in education, infrastructure, public health, scientific research, housing, and energy. All foundational systems of a society, which c…

I'd argue more that it's an incentive alignment problem. From the 70s on we changed the way a lot of the incentives work so corporations could more freely capture markets and a lot of Americans were convinced that this would help enrich them as well. All it's done is hollow out our social services and further consolidate wealth in this country. Ironically the people most hurt by these policies are the ones who keep voting for them so until we hit some catalyst inflection point where people can map the policies being enacted onto what's happening in their own lives this cycle will continue. Most Americans seem pretty ready to accept whatever bullshit makes them feel good so the beatings will either continue until morale improves or until everyone feels beaten enough to do something. Seems more likely it's the former than the latter.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note also that they deliberately choke off the hiring funnel before they even get applicants, and deliberately dispose of experienced controllers. Air traffic controller applicants must be under 31 years old for initial hire. The mandatory retirement age is 56. Although there are limited exceptions to both rules.

Air traffic controllers require a significant investment by the federal government, I take no issue with age limits for both investment (lower bound) and safety reasons (upper bound) (if the data says it is reasonable, I'll always defer to the data). I take exceptional issue with the fact that their pay is not considered essential. There should be no way for this critical infrastructure to be not considered essential…

Also, their pay comes from a fund filled by airport fees, not the general budget.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#45
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand what you mean.

He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up, instead of anecdotal evidence.

+1 but this is The Atlantic so having a reasonable expectation would keep you sane.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#46

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.

I don't think you can make any statistical argument from accident data from a single year.

Yes, there is universal data out there. But those events are so rare that you almost never can differentiate a normal year from an abnormal one.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Immigration for a labour shortage is a tale as old as time. Mass migration was very common post WW1/2 Europe. People went where there were jobs and labour shortages. Policy around this type of thing is important. My post is more about the general dysfunction and solution schemes we see in some governments. I think having the ICE example might bring about some bots and trolls, though. I don't care for the ICE…

The US policy seems pretty clear: Allow companies who employ undocumented workers to benefit and profit from it, while making sure only the individual workers shoulder the criminal and livelihood risks.

I thought the policy is that you can't hire without documentation. Do you mean that there is a scheme in place, outside of the legal framework?

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#48

[flagged]

Your numbers for France don't match anything I can find online.

The number of immigrants per year seems to have been max 340k, about 50% have employment quickly, etc.

You complain about "leftists" but as someone who definitely doesn't want open borders, the general fear in your comment and the numbers that seem made up make your comment read a lot more like (far-) "rightist" stuff.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#49

A lot of core services in the US are near collapse, because society focuses on short-term value extraction, over long term success. If you look at the US's history, there was a much better balance between the two (with the core being seen as a lever towards future wealth). You see this in education, infrastructure, public health, scientific research, housing, and energy. All foundational systems of a society, which c…

I don't think it's as much an 'attitude' problem as it is a 'wealth' problem.

The richest folk in this country have bought out every single media apparatus it can get its hands on and have spread decades of propaganda. The 'philanthropic' billionaire that spent wealth so that they could have a building or initiative named after them have vanished and gave their wealth to the methhead billionaires that rip up the wiring of the country to sell for pennies.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#50
People who dedicate their lives to studying an industry, can get very good at being able to predict the probability of events in their domain.

These same people are commonly off by orders of magnitude when predicting the magnitude of these same events.

The author of this article won the "Toner Prize for Excellence in National Political Reporting". I'm going to infer from this, that he's better at political reporting, than he is at predicting the future of an entire industry.

And if he is truly convinced of this outcome, he should be shorting the airlines. (I'm gonna guess he hasn't done that).

(edit: syntax)

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