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Urea prices

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Re: Urea prices

#41

Post by alephnerd »

mkw5053 wrote: post #37
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #26

Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years). look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart. Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation". Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet .

Really interesting. It made me curious to dig in and learn that urea production starts with natural gas. And if you add natural gas to the chart as well urea and natural gas prices generally track together without a lag either way, except natural gas doesn't have the recent uptick seen in urea. I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or…

> I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or supply

One of India's SOEs recently paused Urea production at some plants due to NatGas issues from the ongoing conflict [0].

Additonally, India began reducing purchasing of Russian LNG in late 2025.

India also launched a tender to purchase urea on the global market in February [1].

This led to a double whammy for urea in the short term given how Indian agriculture is heavily Urea dependent (around 70-80% of all fertilizers used in India are Urea).

But the same SOE recently announced it's restarted operations earlier today [2] and India has restarted spot purchases of what appears to be Russian LNG [3][4] that was originally destined for Europe (especially Hungary and Slovakia).

Edit: can't reply

I'm not a god damn LLM and I do not use AI to write my comments. If you can't engage with an argument, then fuck off.

[0] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/gas-shortage-halts-...

[1] - https://www.rfdtv.com/india-urea-tender-tightens-global-fert...

[2] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/bathinda/nfl-bathinda-plan...

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-securing-addit...

[4] - https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/

Re: Urea prices

#42

Post by SigmundA »

throwaway85825 wrote: post #40
SigmundA wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three main emissions control systems in diesels, the Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) which uses Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF). Any or all can be "deleted" and is a crime to do so. All 3 systems add complexity and potentially reduce performance which is why those who don't care about emissions like to get rid of them. Before DEF NOx regula…

Of course, but mostly it's just recirculation that causes costly engine rebuilds. If it wasn't so expensive no one would delete. Most regulations target emissions at point of sale but don't give a toss if such systems are practical or maintainable. It's sometimes better for the environment to have more emissions but not so much waste from having to buy a new thing more frequently.

No the DEF systems tend to break down and its mandated the engine go into limp mode when they do, this is hated by those that do not care for emissions and one of the biggest reason to delete by truckers. Also costly to fix the systems out of warranty.

You can find instructions on how to make DEF simulators using raspi's to fool the ECU into think the DEF system is working, people who do care about emissions will still carry these for emergency so they continue on their trip and get to a shop later. The derate was over zealous for sure and was a bad policy.

Also DPF is a performance issue since it blocks the exhaust to some degree, same with catalytic converter with def nozzle so no its not just EGR at all. DPF also consumes more fuel for regens.

2027 diesel regulations was to mandate even more NOx control but also specified manufacturers were required to have 100,000 mile 10 year warranty on emissions systems, its 5 year, 50k now. I believe thats dead in the water now.

A diesel engine with a deleted SCR system puts out 40 times the NOx of a working one. Thats 40 trucks going down the road to 1 equivalent. NOx causes asthma and acid rain, its not for the environment as much as for you directly.

Re: Urea prices

#43

Post by D_Alex »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #26

Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years). look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart. Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation". Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet .

Yes, it is nothing like 2022 yet. But the concerning thing is that this may be just a beginning of a protracted event, plus the world, and especially Western Europe, is less resilient today to the disruptions in gas supply.

Re: Urea prices

#44

Post by bluGill »

mikelitoris wrote: post #33

What if we collectively pee in buckets (to not dilute it with water and other human by-products) and give them to refineries for purification? /s

Possible but there is a lot of water to remove. And even after that a lot of other impurities. You could do it, but it isn't worth it at scale

Re: Urea prices

#45

Post by toomuchtodo »

Johnny_Bonk wrote: post #27
adrianN wrote: post #25

Sooner rather than later we need to decarbonize fertilizer production. Maybe this will speed the process up a bit.

Indeed, I did some work on that with regards to renewable ammonia production, interesting field to look into if you're curious

Resources on the topic you would recommend?

Re: Urea prices

#46

Post by D_Alex »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #32
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #26

Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years). look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart. Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation". Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet .

It looks like it's been pretty stable for three years, after what looks like a spike in the end of 2021. I can't see past 5Y without paying, so I don't know if the past three years was an abnormal low, or if that's the regular cost.

2022 was abnormally high, caused largely by the disruption of gas supplies to Western Europe after sanctions on Russian gas and the destruction of the Nordstream gas pipeline.

Re: Urea prices

#47

Post by extraduder_ire »

alephnerd wrote: post #31
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #26

Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years). look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart. Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation". Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet .

> 2022 And that was specifically due to the (ongoing) Russian Invasion of Ukraine. After the 2022 spike, most large countries began building alternative supply chains to reduce impacts from these kinds of hits. For example, the US and Europe largely doesn't use urea unlike Brazil, India, and China. This is also why Asian countries have been investing heavily in Hydrogen energy despite HN's hate boner to the technolog…

Is it really hydrogen energy if your plan for the hydrogen gas is turning it into ammonia?

Would give you another use for it, I suppose.

Re: Urea prices

#48

Post by throwaway85825 »

SigmundA wrote: post #42
throwaway85825 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, but mostly it's just recirculation that causes costly engine rebuilds. If it wasn't so expensive no one would delete. Most regulations target emissions at point of sale but don't give a toss if such systems are practical or maintainable. It's sometimes better for the environment to have more emissions but not so much waste from having to buy a new thing more frequently.

No the DEF systems tend to break down and its mandated the engine go into limp mode when they do, this is hated by those that do not care for emissions and one of the biggest reason to delete by truckers. Also costly to fix the systems out of warranty. You can find instructions on how to make DEF simulators using raspi's to fool the ECU into think the DEF system is working, people who do care about emissions will sti…

And what percent of diesel emissions are from diesel passenger vehicles?

Emissions reduction efforts would be better spent ensuring repairability. The sunk cost emissions of landfills filled with junk created by planned obsolescence is much worse.

Diesel pick ups are not practical vehicles. Let's be honest, it's a hobby. It's always going to be niche and cutting down the last 10% is always the hardest. General aviation still uses lead.

Re: Urea prices

#49

Post by SigmundA »

throwaway85825 wrote: post #48
SigmundA wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the DEF systems tend to break down and its mandated the engine go into limp mode when they do, this is hated by those that do not care for emissions and one of the biggest reason to delete by truckers. Also costly to fix the systems out of warranty. You can find instructions on how to make DEF simulators using raspi's to fool the ECU into think the DEF system is working, people who do care about emissions will sti…

And what percent of diesel emissions are from diesel passenger vehicles? Emissions reduction efforts would be better spent ensuring repairability. The sunk cost emissions of landfills filled with junk created by planned obsolescence is much worse. Diesel pick ups are not practical vehicles. Let's be honest, it's a hobby. It's always going to be niche and cutting down the last 10% is always the hardest. General aviati…

Not sure what your point is, I was talking primarily about Class 8 heavy duty commercial trucks (semi) and other medium duty commercial use.

All the stuff that makes up emissions gear is highly recyclable and in fact some of it very desirable which is why people are getting catalytic converters stolen. So I do not worry about it filling up a land fill.

I also don't worry about EV batteries filling landfills because again they are very high grade ore for new batteries, once we have enough in circulation we no longer need to mine much lithium or rare earth.

I agree it should be reliable and repairable and forcing the manufacturers to have very long warranties on it seems like a good way to do that, having followed the various generations of DEF systems for the last decade the manufacturers have been making big strides because it costs them otherwise and has.

I also think airplanes using lead is stupid, but that is a fraction of even private diesel pickup usage let alone commercial trucking. Diesel pickups are at least 10% of all pickup sales now days.

Re: Urea prices

#50

Post by gritspants »

alephnerd wrote: post #41
mkw5053 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really interesting. It made me curious to dig in and learn that urea production starts with natural gas. And if you add natural gas to the chart as well urea and natural gas prices generally track together without a lag either way, except natural gas doesn't have the recent uptick seen in urea. I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or…

> I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or supply One of India's SOEs recently paused Urea production at some plants due to NatGas issues from the ongoing conflict [0]. Additonally, India began reducing purchasing of Russian LNG in late 2025. India also launched a tender to purchase urea on the global market in February [1]. This led t…

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