Quick, buy a Mac with higher-specced memory while the price is almost reasonable.
DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
41–50 of 158 posts
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#42What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…
> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?
Fundamentally because demand and supply curves are lagged. This drives DRAM flood and drought cycles. Right now high DRAM prices are driving fab investment up and demand down. In 3-5 years new fabs will cause DRAM glut that will drive prices down. Lower prices will stimulate demand via things like doubling DRAM size in consumer electronics as companies compete on getting the number bigger. Eventually demand curve will eclipse the supply and we will end up in the DRAM drought again.
This time things are further complicated by the fact that the world is investing a sizable chunk of GDP into building RAM hungry data centers in hopes of building a god which will convert the rest of the world into data centers.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#43What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…
> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?
It didn't triple overnight. Contracts for 2026-2027+ hyperscaler orders get negotiated gradually over time and when those contracts are N% higher than last year, ~all supply is spoken for.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've heard it was Sam Altman and OpenAI basically buying every wafer available from both Samsung and SKHynix at the start of October. Neither company know of the other purchase until it was a done deal.
The CEO of OpenAI and OpenAI didn't coordinate?
Samsung and SK Hynix. OpenAI made deals to buy almost half of manufactured DRAM in the world. There's speculation that after this was announced, other companies started making their own deals in a panic, further driving demand.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#45Quick, buy a Mac with higher-specced memory while the price is almost reasonable.
What? Apple's memory upgrades are never reasonable.
Last time I checked going from 16 to 32GB in a Mac Mini was more expensive (or as expensive) than buying two 16GB Mac Minis.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#46Quick, buy a Mac with higher-specced memory while the price is almost reasonable.
*only slightly less reasonable than market prices before they adjust it in order to stay at 2x less reasonable
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#47What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…
> The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative. I would argue that the DRAM price fixing scandal actually demonstrates that the industry operates like a cartel. During times of low demand and high supply, they will coordinate to protect prices, and then during spikes in demand (or alleged spikes in demand) they coordinate…
> Following the plea agreement he was sentenced to 8 months in prison and fined US$250,000.[6] Lee was subsequently promoted to President of Samsung Germany in 2009, and then President of Samsung Europe in 2014.
Lmao he got rewarded for taking the fall.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?
Maybe Some nerds joked at lunch that if we hoard all the RAM we cut it off from competitors. They saw what COVID did to supply chains and thought they’d be so smart if they could simulate it.
No no no, it’s all just the bullwhip effect, remember? Remember when prices went fucking nuts during Covid and then dropped?
Oh wait, they never fucking dropped.
Still waiting, all you bullshit, er, bullwhip truthers out there.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative. I would argue that the DRAM price fixing scandal actually demonstrates that the industry operates like a cartel. During times of low demand and high supply, they will coordinate to protect prices, and then during spikes in demand (or alleged spikes in demand) they coordinate…
> Following the plea agreement he was sentenced to 8 months in prison and fined US$250,000.[6] Lee was subsequently promoted to President of Samsung Germany in 2009, and then President of Samsung Europe in 2014. Lmao he got rewarded for taking the fall.
Was in the room working for a hardware company during the offshoring phase of high tech manufacturing
Offshoring was 100% because of antitrust concerns. Copyright landlords and hardware manufacturers were concerned with Americans and their morals also having the skills to create endless competition.
American workers compensation prize was endless hustle jobs to distract them from political revolution.
The olds don't care if the kids end up unskilled knowledge serfs, fuzzy VHS tapes of outdated academics. The olds will be dead.
Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
"OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 > Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping…
Can you blame them, though? Between the notorious boom-and-bust cycle of semiconductor industry, and everyone (including much of this forum) thinking that AI is a bubble that will crash any minute, is it really that unreasonable that they're not trying to massively ramp up supply?
In the meantime, Chinese memory suppliers are ramping supply and winning deals with PC OEMs.