Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

xda-developers.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 158 posts

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#31

Post by ares623 »

bakugo wrote: post #30
legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?

Maybe Some nerds joked at lunch that if we hoard all the RAM we cut it off from competitors. They saw what COVID did to supply chains and thought they’d be so smart if they could simulate it.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#32

Post by gruez »

walterbell wrote: post #18
kllrnohj wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal There's also been not one but two price fixing settlements at different times for the same companies. Almost like every few years they get bold enough to try again, and just settle as the cost of doing business

"OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 > Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping…

Can you blame them, though? Between the notorious boom-and-bust cycle of semiconductor industry, and everyone (including much of this forum) thinking that AI is a bubble that will crash any minute, is it really that unreasonable that they're not trying to massively ramp up supply?

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#33

Post by dboreham »

kllrnohj wrote: post #11
eb0la wrote: post #7

Every 3-4 years RAM prices spike. There is always an excuse like a fire in a factory. I believe the truth is 1) we have little amount of suppliers, and 2) supply is very near the limit of what can be sold.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal There's also been not one but two price fixing settlements at different times for the same companies. Almost like every few years they get bold enough to try again, and just settle as the cost of doing business

There were also dumping controversies in the 1980s. Who knows that may even be where Trump got his crazy tarrif fetish from.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#34

Post by alephnerd »

bakugo wrote: post #30
legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?

> Why is demand extremely high...

Data Center projects that were announced a couple months ago are now beginning to be built out.

Additionally, there have been some supply chain issues the past few years due to trade wars between the US, SK, and China [0], along with the earthquake that hit Taiwan last year [1].

Generally, you feel the pain of supply chain issues within 6-18 months of the initial incident, which is where we are now at because stockpiles have been reduced significantly.

[0] - https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230310PD204/chip-war-memor...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/micron-flags-hit-its-dram...

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#35

Post by davoneus »

bakugo wrote: post #30
legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?

I've heard it was Sam Altman and OpenAI basically buying every wafer available from both Samsung and SKHynix at the start of October.

Neither company know of the other purchase until it was a done deal.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#36

Post by sc68cal »

legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

> The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative.

I would argue that the DRAM price fixing scandal actually demonstrates that the industry operates like a cartel. During times of low demand and high supply, they will coordinate to protect prices, and then during spikes in demand (or alleged spikes in demand) they coordinate to keep the price from dropping.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#37

Post by elektronika »

ksec wrote: post #27

I said this last time, YMTC from China is making NAND and finally crossed the 10% market share. I would not be surprised if they have 30% by 2030. The more NAND Fabs reconfigured to DRAM from Samsung or others the more YMTC will grab NAND market share. So yes naturally those profit current NAND and DRAM player enjoys provides an extra cushion for them to build their Fab which is becoming ever more expensive due it it…

YMTC also announced entry into the DRAM market a couple months back. CXMT recently announced DDR5-8000. Sanctions clearly aren't working to slow progress in China's tech sector, but they seem to be great for the profits of US vassal-states

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#38

Post by ffsm8 »

legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

I do not have any particular insight into the market, I was just extremely confused reading this in particular

> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up. The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative.

Given this first statement, the last one makes no sense.

Either the demand is limited, giving sellers that undercut the ability to move more products... Or the demand is higher then production, making it nonsensical to undercut anyone, because you'll sell out anyway, no matter if you're cheapest or not

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#39

Post by Scaevolus »

davoneus wrote: post #35
bakugo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless Why is demand extremely high right now when it wasn't a couple of months ago? What changed since then that caused it to triple overnight?

I've heard it was Sam Altman and OpenAI basically buying every wafer available from both Samsung and SKHynix at the start of October. Neither company know of the other purchase until it was a done deal.

The CEO of OpenAI and OpenAI didn't coordinate?
Post reply on HN