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AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

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Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#41

Post by JauntTrooper »

spectralista wrote: post #31
ericb wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the tech is real and has great promise. This was very true of the dotcom bubble. The entire "web" was new, and the promise was everything you use it for today . Pets.com was a laughing stock for years as an example of dotcom excess, and now we have chewy.com, successfully running the same model. Webvan.com, was a similar example of "excess" and now we have Instacart and others. I looked up webvan just now--the post…

This to me is the whole bubble. The problem of dotcom is we needed a cultural shift. I had my first internet date during the dot com bubble and I remember we would lie to people about how we met because the idea sounded so insane at the time to basically everyone. In 1999 it seemed kind of crazy to even use your real name online let alone put your credit card into the web browser. Put your credit card into the intern…

Uber might be the wildest cultural shift of the last 25 years.

Nobody blinks twice nowadays at getting into a car with a total stranger.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#42

Post by addaon »

handoflixue wrote: post #36
jbritton wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been spent many hours with them on coding tasks. As things currently stand once context or complexity reaches a certain point they become completely incapable of solving problems and that point occurs on very simple things. They appear completely brain dead at times although they are magnificent liars at making you think they understand the problem. Although, I recently got chatGPT 5 to solve a problem in a co…

Would you agree that many humans, especially younger ones, are also incapable of reasoning?

I think it’s completely uncontroversial that younger humans are incapable of reasoning, no? The only area for discussion is at which age (if any) this changes for an individual.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#43

Post by hattmall »

saxenaabhi wrote: post #27
ericb wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the tech is real and has great promise. This was very true of the dotcom bubble. The entire "web" was new, and the promise was everything you use it for today . Pets.com was a laughing stock for years as an example of dotcom excess, and now we have chewy.com, successfully running the same model. Webvan.com, was a similar example of "excess" and now we have Instacart and others. I looked up webvan just now--the post…

Isn't openAI already profitable on inference? I understand training is still costly, but it's not unimaginable for it to turn profitable as well if you think believe they'll generate trillions in value by eliminating millions of jobs.

>Isn't openAI already profitable on inference?

I don't believe this has been the case or claim at all. At best they have recognized some limited use cases in certain models where API tokens have generated a gross profit.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#44

Post by hattmall »

addaon wrote: post #42
handoflixue wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you agree that many humans, especially younger ones, are also incapable of reasoning?

I think it’s completely uncontroversial that younger humans are incapable of reasoning, no? The only area for discussion is at which age (if any) this changes for an individual.

I would say that's a pretty controversial take unless you strictly mean babies. At the point a kid can walk they are certainly capable of some level of reasoning because just walking successfully prior to it becoming muscle memory requires a fair amount of reasoning and children very rapidly figure out new things both spatial and logical.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#45

Post by jbritton »

jbritton wrote: post #24
fl7305 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LLMs don’t really reason Do you have a test for this? Or is it based on the presumption that reasoning skills cannot evolve, it can only be the result of "intelligent design"?

I have been spent many hours with them on coding tasks. As things currently stand once context or complexity reaches a certain point they become completely incapable of solving problems and that point occurs on very simple things. They appear completely brain dead at times although they are magnificent liars at making you think they understand the problem. Although, I recently got chatGPT 5 to solve a problem in a co…

Gotham Chess has done chat bot chess championships. The chat bots make a few good moves, and then begin making illegal moves, randomly removing or adding pieces, and completing ignoring obvious threats and attacks. It is so obvious that the pattern matching is not resulting in reasoning. Another example is Towers of Hanoi. An LLM can write code to solve it, because that’s an easy pattern match. But it can’t write out the steps beyond a 3 disk puzzle. It has no understanding of the recursive nature of the problem.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#46

Post by addaon »

hattmall wrote: post #44
addaon wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s completely uncontroversial that younger humans are incapable of reasoning, no? The only area for discussion is at which age (if any) this changes for an individual.

I would say that's a pretty controversial take unless you strictly mean babies. At the point a kid can walk they are certainly capable of some level of reasoning because just walking successfully prior to it becoming muscle memory requires a fair amount of reasoning and children very rapidly figure out new things both spatial and logical.

So if you believe babies do not reason, and walking humans do, then younger humans up to some age do not reason, yes?

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#47

Post by noahtf13 »

diamond559 wrote: post #19
yalogin wrote: post #12

I am split on this, this is definitely a bubble but I don’t know if it’s going to crash or wipe out countries. The problem here is the tech is real and has great promise. This is not AGI but llms can make the promise of robots real, by it may take a long time for it to materialize just like with self driving cars. So the hype can subside but it needs an impetus to slide. It may or may not happen and even if it does,…

The impetus is that 90% of our country is in recession and the rest are soon to follow. Delinquencies are rising fast and not just in subprime. Layoffs are at levels not seen since 2008. Crypto, tech stocks and many housing markets have already peaked or are already in bear markets. The crash is here and it's inevitably going to get worse.

I’m not seeing delinquency increases or values close to .com or ‘08 on this (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBN) or more specific series

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#48

Post by whattheheckheck »

jbritton wrote: post #24
fl7305 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LLMs don’t really reason Do you have a test for this? Or is it based on the presumption that reasoning skills cannot evolve, it can only be the result of "intelligent design"?

I have been spent many hours with them on coding tasks. As things currently stand once context or complexity reaches a certain point they become completely incapable of solving problems and that point occurs on very simple things. They appear completely brain dead at times although they are magnificent liars at making you think they understand the problem. Although, I recently got chatGPT 5 to solve a problem in a co…

Can you post your experiments please?

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#49

Post by perilunar »

JauntTrooper wrote: post #41
spectralista wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This to me is the whole bubble. The problem of dotcom is we needed a cultural shift. I had my first internet date during the dot com bubble and I remember we would lie to people about how we met because the idea sounded so insane at the time to basically everyone. In 1999 it seemed kind of crazy to even use your real name online let alone put your credit card into the web browser. Put your credit card into the intern…

Uber might be the wildest cultural shift of the last 25 years. Nobody blinks twice nowadays at getting into a car with a total stranger.

I don't get it. Nobody blinked twice about getting into a car with a total stranger before Uber either — taxis have been around for well over a hundred years. It's not exactly a huge cultural change, just more efficient and convenient.

Re: AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

#50

Post by jbritton »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #48
jbritton wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been spent many hours with them on coding tasks. As things currently stand once context or complexity reaches a certain point they become completely incapable of solving problems and that point occurs on very simple things. They appear completely brain dead at times although they are magnificent liars at making you think they understand the problem. Although, I recently got chatGPT 5 to solve a problem in a co…

Can you post your experiments please?

I don’t have a log of work that I can post.
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