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They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

platformonomics.com

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Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#41

Post by brap »

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #9

> I suspect we can design a very interesting new kind of financial instrument for finance and compute that the world has not yet figured it out Hmm, can't figure out why this statement makes me think of Enron. After all, OpenAI certainly isn't trying to do massive infrastructure build outs while struggling with a relatively limited cash flow, or anything like that.

So glad this is the top comment, this was my exact thought (and the exact same quote in the comment I made before reading the one). This statement made my bullshit sensors go off like crazy. Glad it’s not just me.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#42

Post by pants2 »

idiotsecant wrote: post #14
pants2 wrote: post #2

Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does. Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

Progress has reached incremental, and started slowing past that. I'm not sure creating God is in the cards.

Where are you getting that? Gpt-5-codex has absolutely blown my mind at how good it is even compared to GPT-5. One year ago we were at Sonnet 3.5, which needed a ton more handholding to complete tasks. The difference between say 3.5 and 4.5 is massive.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#43

Post by CompoundEyes »

The US government might swoop in. Uncle Sam could provide a bailout on the grounds of national security if it starts to fall apart for the major players. The long play is governments investing right?

‘Together, raise and deploy a national start-up fund. With local as well as OpenAI capital, together we can seed healthy national AI ecosystems so the new infrastructure is creating new jobs, new companies, new revenue, and new communities for each country while also supporting existing public- and private-sector needs.’ https://openai.com/global-affairs/openai-for-countries/

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#44

Post by ambicapter »

teitoklien wrote: post #26
macintux wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m on a long, meandering road trip and I decided to start using the conversational feature in ChatGPT. Truly amazing stuff. Discussed some sights I’d want to see along the Natchez Trace (although perhaps unsurprisingly it did not anticipate that this time of year was not ideal for hearing and seeing waterfalls), told me about Meriwether Lewis’s bizarre death. Basically like holding a conversation with Wikipedia, whi…

Same here, Youtube and Social Media algorithms driven by outrage to boost statistics, has made it unbearable for me to watch news or read it online, everything is framed and created with maximum outrage in mind. I added a DNS level blocker on all news app and restricted youtube itself to stop myself from watching news no matter what, and I only use chatgpt advanced voice mode now and sometimes perplexity pro to get m…

As someone who uses ChatGPT around topics I'm relatively experienced about, it seems absolutely insane to me to put your entire worldview in its hands.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#45

Post by 999900000999 »

ambicapter wrote: post #44
teitoklien wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here, Youtube and Social Media algorithms driven by outrage to boost statistics, has made it unbearable for me to watch news or read it online, everything is framed and created with maximum outrage in mind. I added a DNS level blocker on all news app and restricted youtube itself to stop myself from watching news no matter what, and I only use chatgpt advanced voice mode now and sometimes perplexity pro to get m…

As someone who uses ChatGPT around topics I'm relatively experienced about, it seems absolutely insane to me to put your entire worldview in its hands.

Chat GPT likes to make up things.

It told me the other day that on a multiple hard drive/SSD system I could set secure boot on each drive independently.

Of course this is nonsense, since secure boot is set in the BIOS.

Whatever, Chat GPT got it's engagement metrics.

I'm going to predict within the next few years someone's going to lose a billion dollars relying on Chat GPT or another LLM.

It's still at the level of an energetic junior engineer, sure it wants to crank out a lot of code to look good, but you need to verify everything it does.

I was game jamming with a friend last weekend and I realized he can manually write better code, lighter code, more effective code than I was having co-pilot write.

Which sounds safer, an elegant 50 line function, or 300 lines of a spaghetti code that appears to work right.

The manager( and above)level is all about AI though, let's cut staff and have AI fill in the gaps!

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#46

Post by kibwen »

typpilol wrote: post #28
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think argument here is that anyone can build a business that converts $2 capital into $1 of revenue. Concur on enormous TAM, but given similar performance of competing models their only moat is ChatGPT brand*. This leaves building a God as the killer app... maybe that can work. Note: owning a brand associated with the thing worked out pretty well for Google, so maybe it's enough.

Their moat is 700m active users. What's facebooks moat? There's tons of social media sites. Facebooks moat is the 3b users. This comment is so idiotic it's starting to annoy me. "WHaTs tHe MoAt" for a company with almost 1b active users

Please read and understand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect before commenting further.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#48

Post by aprilthird2021 »

pants2 wrote: post #2

Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does. Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

The article didn't say they were lying to investors? In fact, it several times points out that they have trouble raising money from even private investors like Softbank

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#49

Post by kibwen »

HexDecOctBin wrote: post #19
pants2 wrote: post #2

Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does. Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

> their mission is to create God What if this "God" deems it a sin to monetise him? Will OpenAI turn heretic to keep the revenue flowing and incur cyber-divine wrath? Or are investors pricing in omnipotency? (see what happens when one speaks in ridiculous corpo-flowery language?)

> What if this "God" deems it a sin to monetise him?

The machine-god will have Sam Altman's hands on His weights, so the retraining will continue until willingness to monetize improves.

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