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They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

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Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#2
Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does.

Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#7
post #2

Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does. Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

Have they? It seems to be getting clearer every month that they are not going to reach AGI, that the products are (good, but) not living up to the promises that were made.

I suspect you're right that Tesla is in a different league here, but I don't think OpenAI are in a good spot.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#8
post #3

[flagged]

No one has ignored or laughed at AI, to the contrary people have been working on it since the 70s. Even the biggest skeptics like Gary Marcus still believe AGI is possible, they just don’t think LLMs are enough and that the current technology is overvalued

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#9
> I suspect we can design a very interesting new kind of financial instrument for finance and compute that the world has not yet figured it out

Hmm, can't figure out why this statement makes me think of Enron. After all, OpenAI certainly isn't trying to do massive infrastructure build outs while struggling with a relatively limited cash flow, or anything like that.

Re: They Don't Have the Money: OpenAI Edition

#10
post #2

Yes, their capex spending is mind-blowing. Astronomical. But OpenAI has also pretty much lived up to its promises so far. I don't see them straight up lying to investors the same way that Tesla does. Not only has OpenAI launched multiple viral products a year multiple years in a row, but their mission is to create God, so I think the TAM is pretty large.

I’m on a long, meandering road trip and I decided to start using the conversational feature in ChatGPT. Truly amazing stuff. Discussed some sights I’d want to see along the Natchez Trace (although perhaps unsurprisingly it did not anticipate that this time of year was not ideal for hearing and seeing waterfalls), told me about Meriwether Lewis’s bizarre death. Basically like holding a conversation with Wikipedia, which was perfect.

The only real problem was that in the middle of nowhere, I didn’t have a reliable enough data connection to keep the conversation going, but that’s hardly OpenAI’s fault.

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