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Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

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Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#41

Post by whimsicalism »

NewJazz wrote: post #30
whimsicalism wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mistake central banks made in 2007-2009* was keeping monetary policy far too tight for far too long, for no real discernable reason. Offering commentary on which particular sectors they feel are a 'bubble' is outside their purview and not particularly productive IMO, the state is not very good at picking winners. *edited to 2007

Sorry you think the government wasn't pumping the 2006 economy enough ?

2006 was too early, fair enough. But we were way too tight by late 2007 at least. We should never have let AD fall as much as it did.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#42

Post by bartlettD »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #28
Pxtl wrote: post #7

Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.

> But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be. The market disagrees. But if you are sure of this, please show your positions. Then we can see how deeply you believe it. My guess is you’re short the most AI-exposed companies if you think they’re overvalued? Hedged maybe? You’ve found a clever way to invest in bankruptcy law firms that handle tech liquidations?

Have you ever heard that "the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent"?

The thing about bubbles is, you can often easily spot them, but can't so easily say when they'll pop.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#43

Post by CyberDildonics »

monero-xmr wrote: post #18
whimsicalism wrote: post #14

AI is a risk. The thing we know is going to bite us in the butt is our continued massive sovereign debt burden and lack of any political will whatsoever to either increase taxes or reduce spending. The dollar is not going to do well this century and creditors confidence is already starting to decline. In fact, the further we go into debt - the more we are implicitly betting our society on an AI hail mary.

There is only 1 solution to the global debt crisis and thats inflating the currency. They did it after WW2 and they will have to do it now. There is no other option. They can do it sneaky through fake measures of inflation, keeping a lid on cost of living adjustments, but ultimately they soak bond holders and standard of living. You see it everywhere in things they can’t inflate. The price of houses and gold most obv…

Will have to do it now? There was a huge amount of money printed off after covid.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#44

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

an0malous wrote: post #40
estomagordo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's a sign it's going to happen ever?

I used to believe in AGI but the more AI has advanced the more I’ve come to realize that there’s no magic level of intelligence that can cure cancer and figure out warp drives. You need data, which requires experimentation, which requires labor and resources of which there is a finite supply. If you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to cure cancer, it would just ask for more experimental data and resources. Isn’t that wh…

Agreed.

And, if you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to figure out FTL warp drives, it would just explain to you how it's not going to happen. It is impossible, the end. In fact the request is fantasy, nigh nonsensical and self-contradictory.

Isn’t that what the greatest minds in physics would say as well? Yes, yes it is.

No debate will be entered into on this topic by me today.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#45

Post by Esophagus4 »

bartlettD wrote: post #42
Esophagus4 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be. The market disagrees. But if you are sure of this, please show your positions. Then we can see how deeply you believe it. My guess is you’re short the most AI-exposed companies if you think they’re overvalued? Hedged maybe? You’ve found a clever way to invest in bankruptcy law firms that handle tech liquidations?

Have you ever heard that "the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent"? The thing about bubbles is, you can often easily spot them, but can't so easily say when they'll pop.

No. Then you haven’t spotted a bubble.

You’ve just made a comment that “wow, things are going up!” That’s not spotting bubble, that’s my non-technical uncle commenting at a dinner party, “wow this bitcoin thing sure is crazy huh?”

Talk is cheap. You learn what someone really believes by what they put their money in. If you really believe we’re in a bubble, truly believe it based on your deep understanding of the market, then you surely have invested that way.

If not, it’s just idle talk.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#46

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #35
estomagordo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's a sign it's going to happen ever?

Humans. There are arrangements of atoms that if constructed and activated, act perfectly like human intelligence. Because they are human intelligence. Human intelligence must be deterministic, any other conclusion is equivalent to the claim that there is some sort of "soul" for lack of better term. If human intelligence is deterministic, then it can be written in software. Thus, if we continue to strive to design/cre…

> Human intelligence must be deterministic, any other conclusion is equivalent to the claim that there is some sort of "soul" for lack of better term.

No, not all processes follow deterministic Newtonian mechanics. It could also be random, unpredictable at times. Are the there random processes in the human brain? Yes, there are random quantum processes in every atom, and there are atoms in the brain.

Yes, this is no less materialistic: Humans are still proof that either you believe in souls or such, or that human level intelligence can be made from material atoms. But it's not deterministic.

But also, LLMs are not anywhere close to becoming human level intelligence.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#47

Post by sampton »

estomagordo wrote: post #17
sampton wrote: post #5

A lot investment is banking on agi. There’s no sign agi is going to happen this decade.

What's a sign it's going to happen ever?

There needs to be break through papers or hardware that can expand context size in exponential way. Or a new model that can address long term learning.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#48

Post by Esophagus4 »

ghaff wrote: post #39
Esophagus4 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be. The market disagrees. But if you are sure of this, please show your positions. Then we can see how deeply you believe it. My guess is you’re short the most AI-exposed companies if you think they’re overvalued? Hedged maybe? You’ve found a clever way to invest in bankruptcy law firms that handle tech liquidations?

One can be skeptical about the overall value of various technologies while also being conservative about specific bets in specific timeframes against them.

I think you’re making my point without realizing it.

If you are skeptical but also not willing to place a bet, you shouldn’t say “AI is overvalued” because you don’t actually believe it. You should say, “I think it might be overvalued, but I’m not really sure? And I don’t have enough experience in markets or confidence to make a bet on it, so I will go with everyone else’s sentiment and make the ‘safe’ bet of being long the market. But like… something feels weird to me about how much money is being poured into this? But I can’t say for sure whether it is overvalued or not.”

Those are two wildly different things.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#49

Post by Pxtl »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #28
Pxtl wrote: post #7

Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.

> But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be. The market disagrees. But if you are sure of this, please show your positions. Then we can see how deeply you believe it. My guess is you’re short the most AI-exposed companies if you think they’re overvalued? Hedged maybe? You’ve found a clever way to invest in bankruptcy law firms that handle tech liquidations?

I generally buy index funds but I put some into AMD a while back as the "less-AI-part-of-tech". Will probably get out of that as they've been sucked into that vortex and shift more into global indexes instead of CAN/USA.

I'll leave shorting to the pros. The whole "double-your-money-or-infinite-losses" aspect of shorting is not a game I'm into.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#50

Post by alphazard »

whimsicalism wrote: post #34
alphazard wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> either increase taxes or reduce spending I see this sentiment a lot, they are not equivalent. The US must reduce spending, if it wants to protect the dollar. Tax increases may also help. The relationship between tax rates, GDP, government revenue, the market value of new US debt, and the value of the dollar, is complicated and depends on uncertain estimates and models of the economy. Increasing taxes can reduce GDP…

If the US reduces the debt, it removes pressure to monetize and removes market expectation that we will monetize, which directly boosts the dollar. I also think that "rich people are scamming us" is a politically more advantageous message than "old people are scamming us".

The most important thing is eliminating the annual deficit. That sends more of a signal about the future of the country and it's currency than the total amount of debt.

How it gets done is separate from that. Given that the only demographic that can comfortably weather a recession is also starting to collect social security, paid for by younger generations who would be meaningfully affected by a recession, "old people are scamming us" may actually be an effective message.

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