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John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

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Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#41
It's always a treat to watch a Carmack lecture or read anything he writes, and his notes here are no exception. He writes as an engineer, for engineers and documents all his thought processes and misteps in the exact detailed yet concise way you'd want a colleague to who was handing off some work.

One question I would have about the research direction is the emphasis on realtime. If I understand correctly he's doing online learning in realtime. Obviously makes for a cool demo and pulls on his optimisation background, and no doubt some great innovations will be required to make this work. But I guess the bitter lesson and recent history also tell us that some solutions may only emerge at compute levels beyond what is currently possible for realtime inference let alone learning. And the only example we have of entities solving Atari games is the human brain, of which we don't have a clear understanding of the compute capacity. In which case, why wouldn't it be better to focus purely on learning efficiency and relax the realtime requirement for now?

That's a genuine question by the way, definitely not an expert here and I'm sure there's a bunch of value to working within these constraints. I mean, jumping spiders solve reasonably complex problems with 100k neurons, so who knows.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#42
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that. Doing games in real time is just a performance problem that can be solved with more compute or inane optimizations. It’s not interesting research.

I think you are trivializing the field of RL research. Games are not a solved problem. Doing that efficiently in real-time is even more difficult and is highly relevant to real world applications.

Right, we have not even solved games in the non-real time environment, so why bother adding additional constraints like “on real hardware in real time”. This is exactly like Tesla trying to switch from LIDAR to cameras before self driving is even solved. It’s avoiding the real harder challenge and going off on inane tangents. John is essentially bike shedding.

In this case, John is going off on this inane tangent because of his prior experience with hardware and video games instead of challenging himself to solve the actual hard and open problems.

I’m going to predict how this plays out for the inevitable screenshot in one to two years. John picks some existing RL algo and optimizes it to run in real time on real hardware. While he’s doing this the field moves on to better and new algorithms and architectures. John finally achieves his goal and posts a vid of some (now ancient) RL algo playing some Atari game in real time. Everyone says “neat” and moves on. John gets to feel validated yet all his work is completely useless.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#43
post #9

A lot of the problems John mentioned (camera jpeg, latency, real time decisions) have been worked on by comma.ai for many years. He could have just used their stack and build on it the general learning parts that comma is not focusing on.

Reuse is not always necessary - sometimes things are just done for fun and exploration, not for appeasing thirsty VCs and grabbing that market share.

Reinventing the exact same thing and shouting from the rooftops about it is exactly how you appease thirsty VCs and grab that market share.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#44
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never actually seen a brogrammer though, I've seen people who program only because they get money for it, I thought for a while those where it, but I'm not sure if I think they qualify either.

From watching on the wall I've seen brogrammer used in various contexts (this is not an exhaustive list): - Someone who is a programmer but follows a hypermasculine cliche and makes sure everyone knows about it. - An insult used by other developers for someone who is more physically fit or interested in their health than themselves. - An insult used by engineers or other people who are not happy with the over represe…

> Someone who is obsessed with the technology and trying to grind their skills on it to an excessive level

sounds like a person who respects their own profession though

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He points that out in his notes and says DeepMind needed specialized training and/or 200M frames of training just to kinda play one game.

What deepmind accomplished with suicidal Mario was so much more than you probably ever will know from outside the company.

Do tell if you can. Were you there?

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#46
post #21

I feel top level AI creation is beyond his skill set. He’s a AAA software engineer but the prerequisites to build out cutting edge AI require deep formal math that is beyond his education and years at this point. Nothing to stop him playing around with AI models though.

What do you mean "beyond his skill set"? He effectively invented 3D gaming, which led to major leaps and investments into graphics cards which are now used for cryptocurrency and AI. He also did significant contributions into VR.

He's probably one of the most qualified people around.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#47
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are trivializing the field of RL research. Games are not a solved problem. Doing that efficiently in real-time is even more difficult and is highly relevant to real world applications.

Right, we have not even solved games in the non-real time environment, so why bother adding additional constraints like “on real hardware in real time”. This is exactly like Tesla trying to switch from LIDAR to cameras before self driving is even solved. It’s avoiding the real harder challenge and going off on inane tangents. John is essentially bike shedding. In this case, John is going off on this inane tangent bec…

False dichotomy. It's not "avoiding the real harder challenge". It's solving a different problem and it is extremely relevant to real world applications. These are actual hard and open problems to be solved.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#48

It's always a treat to watch a Carmack lecture or read anything he writes, and his notes here are no exception. He writes as an engineer, for engineers and documents all his thought processes and misteps in the exact detailed yet concise way you'd want a colleague to who was handing off some work. One question I would have about the research direction is the emphasis on realtime. If I understand correctly he's doing…

It's because humans (and other animals) have enormous innate capacities and knowledge which makes learning new things much much simpler than if you start from scratch. It's not really because of human's computational capacity.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#49
post #9

A lot of the problems John mentioned (camera jpeg, latency, real time decisions) have been worked on by comma.ai for many years. He could have just used their stack and build on it the general learning parts that comma is not focusing on.

This is Carmack, who builds new things. He built one of the first 3D game engines based on the hard math.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#50

I was really excited when I heard Carmack was focusing on AI and am really looking forward to watching this when the video is up - but just from looking at the slides it seems like he tried to build a system that can play the Atari? Seems like a fun project, but curious what will come out of it or if there is an associated paper being released.

His goal was not just to solve Atari games. That was already done.

His goal is to develop generic methods. So you could work with more complex games or the physical world for that, as that is what you want in the end. However, his insight is, you can even modify the Atari setting to test this, e.g. to work in realtime, and the added complexity by more complex games doesn't really give you any new additional insights at this point.

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