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AI Won't Cause Unemployment

pmarca.substack.com

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Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#41

Post by rl3 »

BWStearns wrote: post #20
idopmstuff wrote: post #8

I can't help but think Andreesen's gone off the deep end a bit, especially after he started gushing over Adam Neumann's second run at a real estate company (“We think it is natural that for his first venture since WeWork, Adam returns to the theme of connecting people through transforming their physical spaces and building communities where people spend the most time: their homes.”). > AI is simply already illegal ac…

Something snapped in him when crypto shit the bed. His new obsession with AI is him working some stuff out.

I'd argue the first snap occurred years prior, proximate to A16Z's heavy investment in crypto. Web3 was part two.

Moreover, even associating with Neumann after the antics he pulled is nuts.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#43

Post by AverageDude »

Disagree. AI will cause mass unemployment because it’s way more efficient than a human, doesn’t get sick (relatively less than humans) and costs less. Simple economics. I’ll give you one example. The checkout counters in supermarkets, if the supermarkets would have hired young people on those positions not only we might have less young people going towards drugs and hooliganism but it would have also made them better productive citizens as they gain skills in their teen years.

Corporates need to understand that their greed for infinite profit will eventually create a singularity which will consume them one day. People without jobs buy less. May be we will finally get rid of the consumerism.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#44

Post by xigency »

The advent of AI will absolutely eliminate jobs, either by decimating the required headcount or by making whole professions redundant. I don’t think we can accurately predict which industries will be affected either, as surprisingly many creative disciplines are being impacted now.

How our society integrates AI and robotics technology will determine who is impacted and how we handle it. This is actually a great opportunity to find what is valuable and meaningful. For instance, what can we do to improve people’s lives with excess hands and funds?

I think the foundation will be in providing equitable access to society. For instance, greater accessibility technology will help those who are disabled or differently-abled. There is so much beyond ADA compliance that can help the blind, deaf, lame, and mentally handicapped.

Coming out of a global pandemic, we’ve also learned how crucial socialization is to mental health. Rather than using technology to cut people out of the system (self-checkout; ordering from kiosks; automated support desks), I imagine we will expand services like counseling, fitness, and social events. Places where we prefer interacting with humans to machines.

In the end, it is a bit of a reckoning - what can I do that’s meaningful when I am outperformed by a machine? It means throwing away the culture of being the best, and picking up the habits of doing the best for others.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#45

Post by James_Henry »

chubot wrote: post #30

Honest question (willing to be consider new info): I always thought that housing, health care, and college are more expensive than TVs and cell phones because those things can't be OUTSOURCED to another country. - If an American/Westerner wants a TV or a cell phone, Samsung or Apple can manufacture it overseas and have someone ship it here cheaply. - If an American wants a house, they generally have to hire local lab…

Not being outsourced is part of what's going on. There is more to it, and each of these different goods have their own particular factors going into the rise in their costs.

A big factor leading to this graph is labor productivity. An hour is an hour for everyone, but while we've figured out how to make a TV in a lot less labor hours, it still takes about as many labor hours to set a bone or read a book.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#46

Post by yibg »

LeroyRaz wrote: post #16

I think there is real difference between a) devaluing someone's work, and b) and voiding work of value. What makes AI different from previous technological innovations is that it seems to have the potential to make peoples labor worthless, rather than merely devalued. To give examples, if your writing is worse than ChatGPTs then your writing is worthless. If your art is worse than stable diffusion then your art is wo…

How is this different from previous leaps in industrialization or technological innovation? If you make widgets worse than a machine in a factory then your labor is worthless.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#47

Post by James_Henry »

phillipcarter wrote: post #12
idopmstuff wrote: post #8

I can't help but think Andreesen's gone off the deep end a bit, especially after he started gushing over Adam Neumann's second run at a real estate company (“We think it is natural that for his first venture since WeWork, Adam returns to the theme of connecting people through transforming their physical spaces and building communities where people spend the most time: their homes.”). > AI is simply already illegal ac…

Yeah, his whole post is thinly veiled anti-regulations blather. I suppose it’s a nice break from his web3 nonsense and his deranged anti-“woke” posting.

I missed the veil.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#48

Post by notahacker »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #3

Wow. I was hoping to read some interesting thoughts about AI overpanic, and instead got exposed to communist overpanic :-O

Yes. Did a double take when I saw the name of the author, which I assumed based on the article was someone in their early to mid teens who'd learned everything they knew about the world of business from a copy of Atlas Shrugged!

No adult, least of all a VC, should be citing clothing and household furnishings as shining examples of technology-driven innovation in stark contrast to the moribund world of healthcare, or implying government regulates textbooks more than new cars

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#49

Post by reducesuffering »

> The sectors in red are heavily regulated and controlled and bottlenecked by the government

Pmarca, you're around these parts sometimes. No one wants to hear your musings on government regulation affecting housing prices until you address your own hypocritical contribution:

'Andreessen and his wife recently submitted public comments to the Atherton Town Council denouncing a plan to green-light the construction of around 130 multifamily properties in the area.

"Subject line: IMMENSELY AGAINST multifamily development!” the email from the Andreessens to the council read.

“I am writing this letter to communicate our IMMENSE objection to the creation of multifamily overlay zones in Atherton…Please IMMEDIATELY REMOVE all multifamily overlay zoning projects from the Housing Element which will be submitted to the state in July,” the couple wrote.

“They will MASSIVELY decrease our home values, the quality of life of ourselves and our neighbors and IMMENSELY increase the noise pollution and traffic.”'

https://nypost.com/2022/08/08/marc-andreessen-opposed-afford...

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#50

Post by thenerdhead »

chubot wrote: post #30

Honest question (willing to be consider new info): I always thought that housing, health care, and college are more expensive than TVs and cell phones because those things can't be OUTSOURCED to another country. - If an American/Westerner wants a TV or a cell phone, Samsung or Apple can manufacture it overseas and have someone ship it here cheaply. - If an American wants a house, they generally have to hire local lab…

The idea he is trying to say is similar to old school investors in which the the prices continue to be hiked up in order to afford people who are willing to bribe / lobby to reduce the possibility for disruption. I think there’s a UC Santa Barbara talk by Charlie Munger on this pricing power.
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