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Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

to tease out the nuance, the mechanism of mainstreaming isn't an extension of stupidity (ignorance is certainly a more accurate term), but of limited focus and stress. most people don't spend much time thinking about the wider world and how it should work very deeply, so they follow the herd on most things, because it's a decent heuristic and it has a social benefit. it's a literal luxury to have enough time and ment…

Similarly, people don't want to evaluate interesting restaurants, they want to jump on the bandwagon known as Yelp or Google reviews. There's something wrong with jumping on the bandwagon, but there's more right than wrong.

it depends on what you're looking for psychologically. chain restaurants are the most popular, but that's because they're "safe". other folks want adventure, to wander off the beaten path. sometimes that brings great reward and other times it doesn't. it does, however, provide the adventurer satisfaction in the adventure itself. similarly, the mainstreamer gets comfort from the safety of their choice, apart from the enjoyment of the food.

note that these aren't mutually exclusive groups of people, but typically phases of our own selves. for example, i rarely want chain food, but every once in a while i do. and sometimes i go and enjoy it because the people i'm with want it and enjoy it.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#42
post #36

> Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques. In surveys, everything hinges on how you phrase your question. In this case, I'm compelled to agree: I don't believe there's a health risk from eating GM crops. I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; beca…

> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators. Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivere…

While the distinction might be really important from the perspective of long-term policy making (or research, investment, etc), it is also practically unimportant from the perspective of people using heuristics to make decisions in the here-and-now (i.e. most people, most of the time).

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#43
post #32
post #20

This is a phenomenon any scientist who has been practicing for any length of time is likely to have encountered. I can't even recall all the statements from ignorance (not pejorative--they simply weren't educated on the subject matter) people have made to me about various physics and engineering topics that have been settled for decades in knowledgeable circles.

> settled for decades in knowledgeable circles. Which also describes phrenology, the static universe, and phlogiston theory. A nice collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superseded_theories_in_science

The people who debunked these theories were quite familiar with these existing models and how to build rigorous tests to differentiate these cases from new ideas.

The study tells us that most detractors are not people like this, but instead people with below-average understanding of the field and related fields-- and who are willing to bet more on their performance of objective tests of those fields than the non-detractors.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#45

It is my experience that listening to experts normally is a good idea, but the idea of a scientific journal publishing research that we should all listen to scientists and not hold anti-consensus views, has more than a little possibility for bias on the part of the researchers. Moreover, would it not be odd if those who held anti-consensus views were not overconfident? People of average or lower-than-average confiden…

So you think it’s obviously true, but also obviously the result of biased research?

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#46
Scientists need to stop writing papers like this one until they get their own house in order. From a quick read through, I can see quite a few aspects that come across as misleading to me:

1. It says:

"Although the knowledge gained and shared by the scientific community about [COVID] gradually increased, public health professionals prescribed traditional, time-tested, and general epidemiological measures to try to mitigate its spread ... consensus on how to mitigate viral contagion was well established even at the beginning of the pandemic."

But this is nonsense. Nothing about global lockdowns was traditional, time tested or general. Nor was there any consensus about doing these things, with the WHO having previously strongly stated in 2019 that during a pandemic border closures, contact tracing and quarantines were "not recommended in any circumstances".[1] The pandemic started with public health people saying that closing borders or avoiding people who had arrived from China would be racist. They also opened by stating that there was no evidence masks were useful (in fact, because that's what the available research said at the time), then flipped almost overnight to masks being so useful they must be mandated. No new research came out that triggered this. There were quite a few other inversions on apparently basic topics but there's no need to list them all.

Given that sequence of events it is quite crazy to describe what happened with COVID as traditional and time tested, or to claim that there was a well established consensus right from the start about what to do. No such consensus existed and never did: there were people both inside and outside epidemiology opposing pandemic measures the whole time.

2. They say:

"This is why self-reported understanding decreases after people try to generate mechanistic explanations, and why novices are poorer judges of their talents than experts (33, 34)."

This second claim is key to the whole paper's argument, but there are only two citations for it. Citation 34 is of Dunning-Kruger. The DK study has bizarre and severe flaws that make me wonder how it ever became as famous as it did, for example, one of the supposedly general tasks in which they pitched their tiny handful of psych undergrads against the "experts" was literally "joke expertise", a totally subjective task. I wrote up some of the logic and design issues with it three months ago in a HN thread [2].

3. Although it isn't communicated in their abstract, several topics and most notably climate change are exceptions to their claim:

"individuals most opposed were the least knowledgeable about science and genetics but rated their understanding of the technology the highest in the sample. A similar pattern emerged for gene therapy, although not for climate change denial ..."

Probably not a huge surprise here. The sort of people who write articles disagreeing with climatology are often in my experience scientists, former scientists, engineers, even meteorologists. The sort of people who get upset about GM foods aren't.

4. They rely on Mechanical Turk. The exponential growth of Mechanical Turk usage in the social sciences is troubling. MT isn't designed for doing research and it's easy for people to pretend to be in demographics they aren't, moreover, they are financially incentivized to do so. Academics like using MT because it's more convenient and cheaper than going out and doing large scale legwork, but the results have little validity. In particular attention check failure rates are horrendous on this platform but it doesn't seem to bother anyone. They use two platforms and the second explicitly advertises itself by trashing the reliability of MT based studies [3]. Amusingly, the second platform is literally called "Prolific Academic"!

[1] https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789...

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31119836

[3] https://www.prolific.co/blog/bots-and-data-quality-on-crowds...

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#47
post #36

> Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques. In surveys, everything hinges on how you phrase your question. In this case, I'm compelled to agree: I don't believe there's a health risk from eating GM crops. I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; beca…

> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators. Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivere…

Does it matter?

The average citizen has no control over policy other than blunt instruments — in this case, rejecting purchasing of GM crops entirely, and advocating for others to do the same.

The nuance between “GM crops are safe” and “the politics and commercial incentives around GM crops introduce significant ancillary harm” is necessarily abandoned.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#48
post #14

Isn’t this tautologically true when consensus views are assumed correct? (then the consensus view will be judged as appropriately confident while the non-consensus views will be judged as inappropriately confident) It’s also interesting to consider the human psychological factor that the stronger the consensus, the more effort it takes to hold a dissonant view — and plausibly one must project greater confidence in or…

> Isn’t this tautologically true when consensus views are assumed correct?

I worried that this study might be circular reasoning in that way. Instead they quizzed knowledge on related fields but not directly connected to the disputed idea.

The people involved bet higher amounts on their ability to score well on objective measures of related sciences, but scored worse.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#49
post #10

It is my experience that listening to experts normally is a good idea, but the idea of a scientific journal publishing research that we should all listen to scientists and not hold anti-consensus views, has more than a little possibility for bias on the part of the researchers. Moreover, would it not be odd if those who held anti-consensus views were not overconfident? People of average or lower-than-average confiden…

It's saying that people who hold anti-(scientific)consensus views generally believe themselves to be more well-educated than they actually are. That's a far cry from merely being disagreeable. It doesn't seem to say anything about actually knowledgeable scientists holding anti-consensus views, except insofar as to reiterate the thesis.

Idk, anecdotally I don’t think I’m right about my heterodox nutrition views because I’m more educated, I just observe the consensus view of eating 12 servings of grain per day is wrong because I feel worse listening to their advice than eating what I naturally prefer.

I don’t think education comes into play at all?

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