The abstract itself is already contradictory. How can a "controversial scientific issue" at the same time have "expert consensus"? If there was a consensus, then it would not be controversial. Or perhaps there's often not as much consensus as some people would like to believe.
Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#12I don't know anything about the subject, but I scored pretty high in overconfidence and I totally disagree with this scientifically sound, peer reviewed paper...
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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#13"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
-- Source unclear, frequently attributed to Mark Twain
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#14Isn’t this tautologically true when consensus views are assumed correct? (then the consensus view will be judged as appropriately confident while the non-consensus views will be judged as inappropriately confident)
It’s also interesting to consider the human psychological factor that the stronger the consensus, the more effort it takes to hold a dissonant view — and plausibly one must project greater confidence in order to hold steadfast. This will only amplify, the more one is hounded with “consensus”.
Consensus views might well be right! But is this study telling us anything new/interesting, beyond regurgitating common sense with a veneer of scientism?
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#15The abstract itself is already contradictory. How can a "controversial scientific issue" at the same time have "expert consensus"? If there was a consensus, then it would not be controversial. Or perhaps there's often not as much consensus as some people would like to believe.
Politically controversial issues (e.g. GM foods, COVID related practices) frequently have scientific consensus.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#16Wow, Science has stooped to a new low. I could picture this in Pravda way more easily. So Copernicus was overconfident in his anti-consensus view?
That's not what "associated" means.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#17You've heard of "Blue skies research", this is what I call "The sky is blue research". Working very hard to show something that is pretty much self evident. I'd love it if we could learn how to change people's minds. Calling people stupid hasn't worked.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#18I think it's pretty obvious to everyone what the downsides of people being ignorant are, I would be more interested in seeing some work trying to measure or quantify the damage done by people blindly following mainstream consensus that turns out to be incorrect
I'm generally pretty biased against police shooting someone with a knife. Until one time I saw a video of one guy with a knife stabbing 5 police officers, with their guns drawn, before any of them fired a shot. Sometimes your intuitive sense of what is possible is actually quite wrong.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#19Wow, Science has stooped to a new low. I could picture this in Pravda way more easily. So Copernicus was overconfident in his anti-consensus view?
That's not what the paper says.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#20This is a phenomenon any scientist who has been practicing for any length of time is likely to have encountered. I can't even recall all the statements from ignorance (not pejorative--they simply weren't educated on the subject matter) people have made to me about various physics and engineering topics that have been settled for decades in knowledgeable circles.