Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland • Hacker News Board

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#41

Post by melling » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:47 PM UTC

samcheng wrote: post #23

melling wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has regrouped and moved past the “humiliation“ event. Russia has 10 times the artillery as Ukraine and they are putting it to work. The West is simply not providing enough to Ukraine Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will eventually die, and they could lose. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-risks-losing-artillery-war-...

Even if Russia manages to level a few more cities, it's hard to see the past three months as anything but a humiliation of Russia's military might. The damage to Russian military international respect (fear, even) has already been done.

Nope, a few missteps in the first 90 days of the war will hardly matter a decade from now.

The West really needs to update their news cycle. While everyone was laughing at the problems Russia had early in the war, they went into full artillery mode.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-ammo...

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#42

Post by indymike » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:48 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #25

aaaaaaaaata wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it. Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks. I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible. So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if…

> China prefers peaceful reunification.

The people of Taiwan, just like those of Ukraine do not want to be re-absorbed.

> Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible.

It already is impossible. I think the world, save Beijing is moving on.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#43

Post by Adraghast » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:48 PM UTC

indymike wrote: post #30

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The problem is that the status quo may not be acceptable to the people of Taiwan and reunification is not accepta…

> Not really, if Putin had quickly succeeded I have not doubt that WWIII would have started with a failed attempt to take Taiwan followed by WWIII.

What qualifications allow you to make claims with such confidence?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#44

Post by throw10920 » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:48 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible.

Put another way: if the people of Taiwan decide that they don't want reunification, then China is going to invade and take them by force.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#45

Post by stale2002 » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

acgt wrote: post #18

samcheng wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced the equivalence you mention - "aggression from both sides" - is really there. The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself; there is no serious surviving political will in Taiwan to attack China. China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia…

> The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself. That is entirely wrong. There are plenty of people in the current government pushing the envelope to achieve more "pronounced" independence. Two examples: Biden’s democracy summit incident. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/curious-case-map-... Change of passport. The current government is also pushing to get the day-to-day name Taiwa…

> to achieve more "pronounced" independence.

Well they already are independent. They have their own laws, taxes, government, population, and borders. And this has been the case for 70 years.

The only "difference" here is that they aren't officially saying that they are independent. Even though yes, they are obviously already an independent country.

Recognizing the obvious reality isn't aggression.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#46

Post by Tabular-Iceberg » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #15

fartcannon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.

Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Agreements in international politics are made for a purpose. Perhaps to keep peace, or to protect some interest, etc. If the situation changes such that that purpose can no longer be served — especially if that purpose is an extremely important core interest — then any country will seek to deviate from agreed upon behavior. For example, the US clearly agreed…

The key difference is that we're talking about a gang of insurgents here, who have been extraordinarily lucky in getting to grab most of the pie, and holding on to it for as long as they have. Most insurgents are lucky if they get a small slice, and still have to accept being treated as second-class citizens in international relations. The PRC having more than most others can only dream of, and still not being satisfied is absolutely being power-hungry and expansionist.

And talking about inheriting territory, let's not forget that the Republic of China still very much exists.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#47

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:52 PM UTC

aaaaaaaaata wrote: post #13

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it. Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks. I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#48

Post by melling » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:52 PM UTC

rocqua wrote: post #35

melling wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has too much artillery to be humiliated. They are shelling everything and rolling over the dust. “Russia isn't fighting a campaign of attrition, it's waging a war of oblivion.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050.amp

If you plan a quick win and instead manage to claim 2 provinces after you flattened them, that is humiliating.

Claiming only 20% of the country is humiliating?

I suppose they can fortify that and come back in 10 years and take the rest.

Remember when Hannibal destroyed the Roman armies? That sure was humiliating.

What happened next?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#49

Post by imwillofficial » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:52 PM UTC

throw10920 wrote: post #44

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. Put another way: if the people of Taiwan decide that they don't want reunification, then China is going to invade and take them by force.

That’s not what was said whatsoever.

Make your own comments, don’t try and fail to interpret others’ comments and restate them.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#50

Post by kmonsen » Sat, Jun 11, 2022, 4:53 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

The U.S. never had a one China policy. It officially acknowledges that China has a one China policy. It might sound the same, but it is not. Which it why it also has the policy to sell Taiwan weapons to defend itself, and sometimes the policy to actually defend Taiwan.

Note that it’s policy on China is changing. Obama started to build a pacific alliance, Trump was a bull in a China shop but escalated the policy of disengagement from China. Biden has maintained Trump’s policy even though it would help with his biggest domestic problem (inflation) to reverse it, while also making clear he will defend Taiwan even if it means war with China.