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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#41
post #28
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World wars start from something small. Not saying this is it, but there are all the reasons to be concerned about today’s events.

I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?

I'm reminded of a dead archduke and burning Reichstag...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#42
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve read too many Tom Clancy novels or something. People can declare whatever they want but unless there really is an attack on NATO, no one is talking about Article 5 and in such a circumstance it would be the attack itself and not the citation to a treaty that would be the issue. Also, a “full scale thermonuclear exchange” isn’t what it used to be. Stockpiles are orders of magnitude smaller than in the past, and…

You...realize that all "thermonuclear" is is doping your bomb with tritium/a light fusion stage to generate more neutrons, for more complete fission of the fissile primary, right? All nuclear weapons are fission. Only newer ones are fusion boosted fission devices. I assure you, there is more than enough nuclear ordinance laying around to ensure WWIV is fought with sticks and stones. You do not want .

I’m fairly certain that some people truly do want to see the world burn.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#44
post #28
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World wars start from something small. Not saying this is it, but there are all the reasons to be concerned about today’s events.

I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?

https://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/27/opinion/7-things-gavrilo-...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#45
post #4

Am I correct in saying that Estonia is categorizing this as a threat to their security therefore requesting the rest of Nato to consider this an attack on a member?

They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in…

> They... requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal.

I'm totally ignorant on NATO procedures, so forgive me that I don't understand the Big Deal here. Obviously, NATO nations will discuss this. They didn't need Estonia to draw attention to what Russia is doing.

So this seems to me a bit like: The exact thing that obviously would happen next (NATO nations discussing) will still happen, but now it's dressed up in a formalism?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#48

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he is employing, but we will never know until the brink. We are on the knife's edge of disaster here.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#49
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read modern history. Especially 1936 to 1940. If you are in a hurry you can start here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time

I think I am well versed in European history, thank you for your snarky comment. There's no reason to believe some local conflict will undermine "democracies" all over Europe, notwithstanding the media that is always preying on people's fears.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#50
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in…

What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?

Suppose canada tried to join china and north korea in some kind of military pact. USA would not possibly tolerate that.
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