41–50 of 489 posts
Pretty much ever country has seen a 15-20% increase in excess mortality rates (20% more people dying than averages in the past), this is huge.
This is one of the best up to date visualizations on this topic, scroll down and see breakdowns by country - https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is excess mortality, as in “above what would be expected in a normal year based on demographics”. So, if looking at historical trends and the current demographics as compared with those trends we had a prior expectation of your 1%, then what we we actually observed is 1.17%.
Yeah, I get that. I guess I just mean that the worst pandemic of the last 100 years and (so far) it's maybe 17% deaths over the baseline. That feels kinda low.
If everyone of the 7b people lived 100 years, we would expect about 70 million deaths a year, and we know they don't live 100 years on average. Any reasonable range of assumptions puts this in the range of too-small-to-detect. Which doesn't mean it doesn't matter or isn't important, but it does mean that this is not a good method for estimating it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is excess mortality, as in “above what would be expected in a normal year based on demographics”. So, if looking at historical trends and the current demographics as compared with those trends we had a prior expectation of your 1%, then what we we actually observed is 1.17%.
Yeah, I get that. I guess I just mean that the worst pandemic of the last 100 years and (so far) it's maybe 17% deaths over the baseline. That feels kinda low.
If plane crashes increased 17% in a single year, it would be bit. If cancer deaths increased 17% in a year, it would be pretty remarkable.
The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 15%/month didn't sound that bad to her This is why when economists talk about consumers acting as rational market participants I just laugh and shake my head. Have they met people?
I think Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky already put the “rational market participant” myth to bed for good.
The import of behavioral econ. definitely remains understated today. I am also interested in philosophical thinkers, like Elizabeth Anderson or Michael Sandel, that take questions like these and explore the implications that they might have for how we ought to structure society.
The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1/5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California). Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at…
> If not, we’re about 20% done with COVID, world-wide. For exponential processes think of the % done on a log scale. So population of USA is 320M, and ~100M had COVID, or we were 94% (8/8.5) done with it before vaccine was introduced.
What strikes me is Asia. If I'm reading this right they have relatively low official Covid deaths, but off the charts excess deaths. What's up with that?
What strikes me is Asia. If I'm reading this right they have relatively low official Covid deaths, but off the charts excess deaths. What's up with that?
I found the counting approach to Covid so far to be rather fascinating. With the flu in the US they guess and present that number, but we're supposed to attach some meaningful value to the Covid positive counts as though that actually represents anywhere near the real number of Covid cases since the outbreak began. It's bullshit, I'm just not sure why the establishment (media, government, censors, etc) stick so tight…
And thats a helpful (if not the only one) indicator on whether there will be enough ICU beds one month from now. If not, we should consider lockdowning.