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How Vulnerable Is the World?

aeon.co

41–50 of 64 posts

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#41
We don't need weapons or viruses or other catastrophes to end our civilisation. We just need to keep on breeding.

World population has gone from about 2 billion to almost 8 billion in the last 100 years.

We're well aware of the limited resources of our finite planet, yet the only metric of economic success is growth.

It's a pyramid scheme, and at some point, it has to collapse. Unless we expand beyond this planet, I suppose.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#42
Our focus is on weaponry when we consider these questions, but the real threat is insidious.

The human-in-the-loop Grey Goo that is Bitcoin, for example, is directly exploiting memetic greed, speculation, and fear to heat the oceans.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#43

The tragedy is the growing consensus that the world is going to shit and it's our fault. Even worse is that all this technology, social media, and so on isn't even making us more happy or fulfilled. Yet, most just sit on their hands not doing much at all. Content to eek out what comfort and pleasure we can get now and try our best to ignore the knowledge that devastation awaits us. It's amazing that in tens of thousa…

This comment seems a little inconsistent to me. You complain about the fact that everyone doesn't have the mindset to solve problems. Makes sense so far. Then you say carbon capture tech isn't going to work because... it's too focused on solving problems constructively? What is wrong with the mindset of carbon capture tech, exactly? What is the right mindset to have? (But also, the idea that we can figure out what so…

Admittedly i wasn't writing a through essay response. To elaborate, I'm saying that the exponential rise of technology coupled with the same exact type of mind our ancestors had 2,000 years ago is a significant source of the issue right now. The solution to create even more powerful technology to solve this problem will likely only lead to a bigger problem in the future.

What we don't spend relatively anywhere close to same level of energy and effort is creating, developing, funding ways to shape the human culture, values, and mind that underlies this relentless (and in many cases unfulfilling and self-destructive) pattern of looking to technology to solve everything.

It's a hard challenge for sure but I don't see any alternative solution.

Jordan Hall and Daniel Schmachtenberger talk a lot about this as one source to go deeper.

(side note, I live full time in a residential, monastic small community in the country side. Our carbon footprint is tiny for our size and we have daily conversations on this type of thing. We haven't "solved" it but this is a issue close to my heart I've dedicated my life to.)

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#44

Reminds me of the "great filter" hypothesis that all highly intelligent species develop technologies that destroy them before they find a way to spread on a galactic scale.

I think there's a good chance that the 'black ball', the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter is advanced and rapidly increasing communication technology. I've typed up quite a few words about this, as visible in my HN and Reddit comment history, and I don't have free time to elaborate right now, except to note a (probably poor) analogy that just popped into my head.

Our physical brains (and bodies) are like the bios/firmware running inside of a general purpose computer. Our civilization's collaborative thought is like the software that runs on top of it.

We've been rapidly....perhaps exponentially (and I'm using that word correctly!) increasing the capabilities and functionality of our software. This exponential curve was extremely slow for the first 100,000 years. (Most people who throw the word 'exponential' around don't realize how slow the initial growth is!). It started to speed up a few thousand years ago, and now we are experiencing multiple doublings in our human life spans.

What's not changing very much is our firmware.

Though we all feel like we think clearly, logically, make reasoned decisions, I think science has shown us that every human being is still fundamentally driven by very primitive drives and emotions. Our advanced software creates a story around that primitive firmware that hides it.

One way or another, we're running 2020 software on 1970 firmware.

I think it's quite possible that that simple thing happens to species all over the universe, and they self destruct.

One big aspect of that is, I believe, modern communication technology. Social media as we know it today is a big but not fully inclusive part. It (communication technology) is, to a greater or lesser extent, making us all insane.

It seems unlikely that an insane civilization can go on too long.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment seems a little inconsistent to me. You complain about the fact that everyone doesn't have the mindset to solve problems. Makes sense so far. Then you say carbon capture tech isn't going to work because... it's too focused on solving problems constructively? What is wrong with the mindset of carbon capture tech, exactly? What is the right mindset to have? (But also, the idea that we can figure out what so…

Admittedly i wasn't writing a through essay response. To elaborate, I'm saying that the exponential rise of technology coupled with the same exact type of mind our ancestors had 2,000 years ago is a significant source of the issue right now. The solution to create even more powerful technology to solve this problem will likely only lead to a bigger problem in the future. What we don't spend relatively anywhere close…

>I'm saying that the exponential rise of technology coupled with the same exact type of mind our ancestors had 2,000 years ago is a significant source of the issue right now. The solution to create even more powerful technology to solve this problem will likely only lead to a bigger problem in the future.

I don't think that's obvious. It could be that we're at a part of the techno-societal landscape that happens to be bad, but if we keep working on technology, we'll get to a new part of the landscape that happens to be better. For example, as VR tech gets better, maybe it will replace social media with something healthier. ("If you're going through hell, keep going" as they say.)

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#46
post #31

The tragedy is the growing consensus that the world is going to shit and it's our fault. Even worse is that all this technology, social media, and so on isn't even making us more happy or fulfilled. Yet, most just sit on their hands not doing much at all. Content to eek out what comfort and pleasure we can get now and try our best to ignore the knowledge that devastation awaits us. It's amazing that in tens of thousa…

I get your critique of carbon capture tech, but it's also the only way we can clean up (that part of) our mess.

I'm not a scientist so if I'm incorrect, I would love to know.

But given the current rate of accelerated use of carbon fueled technologies, how realistic is it that carbon capture technology will catch up within the next decade or less? How certain can we be that such technology won't lead to an even worse problem?

Everything I've seen says carbon capture is a moonshot idea. I'd say Elon Musk has a better shot at populating Mars in 20 years than carbon capture saving us. And even if it is a solid mitigation technique, there still is the issue that we develop this god-level of technological power while have completely underdeveloped and underfunded social/cultural/economic/psychological development of the humans developing and wielding it. Most likely we'll just create a bigger existential threat down the line.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#47

The tragedy is the growing consensus that the world is going to shit and it's our fault. Even worse is that all this technology, social media, and so on isn't even making us more happy or fulfilled. Yet, most just sit on their hands not doing much at all. Content to eek out what comfort and pleasure we can get now and try our best to ignore the knowledge that devastation awaits us. It's amazing that in tens of thousa…

So support and join the people who are pushing for that shift. There are very powerful actors working hard to keep dissenters silent and impotent. Lots of people in this forum regularly disparage social justice efforts.

I live in full-time in a small community dedicated to this kind of thing although many would argue we're not doing much at all.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#48
post #5

It's hard not to throw your hands up in the air and say "Well, if it turns out there's a black ball then I guess humanity just wasn't meant to make it" when the only realistic defense against the apocalyptic risidual is a as-yet hypothetical totally effective panopticon surveillance. Moreover, as the essay says; collective action problems have thusfar been total shitshows, even though the stakes are crazy high. Yeah,…

The problem is not that we need global collaboration and perfect adherence. The problem is that right now we have global collaboration and adherence to the profit motive. However, this is primarily only due to the efforts of a minority and a complicity of the majority. It is true that the collective action problem is difficult, but we are much likelier to succeed in it if more people decided it was attainable rather…

thank you, this is what i wish i wrote.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Admittedly i wasn't writing a through essay response. To elaborate, I'm saying that the exponential rise of technology coupled with the same exact type of mind our ancestors had 2,000 years ago is a significant source of the issue right now. The solution to create even more powerful technology to solve this problem will likely only lead to a bigger problem in the future. What we don't spend relatively anywhere close…

>I'm saying that the exponential rise of technology coupled with the same exact type of mind our ancestors had 2,000 years ago is a significant source of the issue right now. The solution to create even more powerful technology to solve this problem will likely only lead to a bigger problem in the future. I don't think that's obvious. It could be that we're at a part of the techno-societal landscape that happens to b…

I'd say this is the mantra humanity has used for over 2,000 years and part of the issue.

It's not so much that I'm saying technological development is bad. Obviously we won't stop making new tech. It's that the larger context in which that tech development is happening is toxic, is not oriented towards health or wellbeing for everyone. The incentives are all perverted.

Re: How Vulnerable Is the World?

#50

We don't need weapons or viruses or other catastrophes to end our civilisation. We just need to keep on breeding. World population has gone from about 2 billion to almost 8 billion in the last 100 years. We're well aware of the limited resources of our finite planet, yet the only metric of economic success is growth. It's a pyramid scheme, and at some point, it has to collapse. Unless we expand beyond this planet, I…

> Unless we expand beyond this planet, I suppose

The asteroid belt has the resources for millions of O'Neil cylinders and Stanford Toruses -- we'll be fine.

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