I think there's a good chance that the 'black ball', the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter is advanced and rapidly increasing communication technology. I've typed up quite a few words about this, as visible in my HN and Reddit comment history, and I don't have free time to elaborate right now, except to note a (probably poor) analogy that just popped into my head.
Our physical brains (and bodies) are like the bios/firmware running inside of a general purpose computer. Our civilization's collaborative thought is like the software that runs on top of it.
We've been rapidly....perhaps exponentially (and I'm using that word correctly!) increasing the capabilities and functionality of our software. This exponential curve was extremely slow for the first 100,000 years. (Most people who throw the word 'exponential' around don't realize how slow the initial growth is!). It started to speed up a few thousand years ago, and now we are experiencing multiple doublings in our human life spans.
What's not changing very much is our firmware.
Though we all feel like we think clearly, logically, make reasoned decisions, I think science has shown us that every human being is still fundamentally driven by very primitive drives and emotions. Our advanced software creates a story around that primitive firmware that hides it.
One way or another, we're running 2020 software on 1970 firmware.
I think it's quite possible that that simple thing happens to species all over the universe, and they self destruct.
One big aspect of that is, I believe, modern communication technology. Social media as we know it today is a big but not fully inclusive part. It (communication technology) is, to a greater or lesser extent, making us all insane.
It seems unlikely that an insane civilization can go on too long.