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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#41

Post by OpticalWindows »

xienze wrote: post #27
OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

> Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. I would imagine people are experiencing such things already seeing as how it’s been seven months with nothing but a single $1200 check.

Yes and states have run out of funding. They literally cant pay people the services they promised them when taking taxes.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#42

Post by mancerayder »

Are Progressive mayorships in places like SF and New York the right mentality at the right time when it's an economic catastrophe to be averted?

The Mayor of NYC said a few days ago, 'Midtown is not the center of the universe' when asked about sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe. Unfortunately it is the center of jobs for the region. Is SF run like this as well?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#43

Post by perardi »

sebmellen wrote: post #22
OpticalWindows wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should be reciving our 3rd and onto our 4th right now.

Really, it's an infrastructure problem. We don't have direct payment rails set up for something like UBI, and the political will to build this infrastructure is next to zero. Most of the companies receiving relief were badly managed before the pandemic, and they should be allowed to fail. But it's very hard to structure relief in a fair and effective way.

An excellent point.

How many people are/were barely attached to the banking system? Especially if you’re working, well, a bit under the table, in day labor situations like construction or office cleaning.

I got my stimulus check. Basically immediately. Because I have a standard 9–5 salaried job with direct deposit, so the government knew exactly where to send the money. But that seems to obviously not have the force multiplier effect of sending it to someone who just got fired from a movie theater.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#45

Post by marinhero »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

My friend who’s also a realtor in The Bay says the exact same thing. I hope they are wrong and just being fatalists!

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#46

Post by sebmellen »

hogFeast wrote: post #37
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

This has happened every few years in corporate real estate for the past half century (Sam Zell's biography is a good take). Every. Single. Time. Valuations too high. Debt too high. Equity too low. I am pretty cynical because I have read a bit too much history and seen this so many times working in investment management but...so what? Some rich people lose a ton of money...okay? Capitalism has losers. You lose. Also,…

Point taken, but I don't think you're taking into account the monumental impact of COVID-19. We've never had such a large, immediate, and impactful shift to work culture.

Working remote was still a niche idea at the beginning of 2020, now it's ubiquitous. That has never happened before.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#47

Post by 77pt77 »

idoh wrote: post #13
andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Good idea but sadly impossible for San Francisco because San Francisco cannot even convert places that are zoned for housing into housing.

> San Francisco cannot even convert places that are zoned for housing into housing

You missed a "not" there.

You talk about that like it's a law of Physics.

It's not.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#48

Post by hogFeast »

idoh wrote: post #13
andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Good idea but sadly impossible for San Francisco because San Francisco cannot even convert places that are zoned for housing into housing.

I think you would see this occur. As inflexible as local government tends to be, they get the idea pretty quick when rich people start losing money. Where I am, tbf I am in the UK and the rules are likely nowhere as inflexible, but property is being rezoned (and green zones are being built in, all the apparently immovable shibboleths of local govt are tumbling).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#50

Post by pessimizer »

sebmellen wrote: post #12
OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

We should have explicitly been paying people to stay home, but somehow the $1200 + the $600 unemployment bump became welfare payments, and morons were giving speeches about how they were incentivizing people to stay home. No shit.

Once we had things under control, we could loosen up quarantine, then when it got shitty again, tighten it up again and pay people to stay home. It would have goddamn paid for itself. If people could quarantine and know their livelihoods were secure, they wouldn't be so upset about it.

edit: this is a rehearsal for when the next coronavirus comes around that has an infection rate like covid-19 but a death rate like MURS. It's going to whip through the world like the plague.

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