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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#41

Post by whimsicalism »

est31 wrote: post #39
zabardasth wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

The move towards a transnational, mobile class of wealthy individuals could engender within-nation conflict, though.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#42

Post by statquontrarian »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Why care who "wins" or who's "bigger"? Our goal should be the greatest wealth for the most people for the whole Earth. This is accomplished with innovation and peaceful trade. One "side" discovers a new technology and the whole world can benefit.

The primary driver of innovation is a competitive market in which individuals innovate through the pursuit of self-interest. The 20th century was a large experiment finalizing this hypothesis, including China through Deng Xiaoping's reforms.

The incendiary thought to both "sides" is that they're both suppressing such innovation: China through explicit communist philosophy and Western countries through some sort of devolution into Crapitalism due to varied causes.

In other words, are China and Western countries qualitatively different? In my opinion, not by a magnitude, and that's the scary thing.

However, barring idiotic wars by country leaders, humans are likely to continue to innovate _despite_ the chiefs, priests, and thieves, as we have done for the last few hundred years (see Pinker, Goklany, etc.).

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#43

Post by luckylion »

malandrew wrote: post #8
rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

> Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. This is such a big reason. We no longer identify under a single identity. In America, that would be identifying as an American. In Europe, people still don't really identify as being European before they identify as English, French, German, etc. Between both America and Europe, we no longer identify with being Western. The fact that we now increasingly id…

> In Europe, people still don't really identify as being European before they identify as English, French, German, etc.

My impression is that that's a dividing line in many European countries. Some (mostly the elite) identifies as European and sees the single nations as backwards and vulgar, while others identify as their nationality and consider the EU as an elitist project to shift the power away from individual nations.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#44

Post by est31 »

novok wrote: post #38
est31 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck building a phone outside of China. https://www.diamandis.com/blog/shenzhen-global-hardware-capi... Huawei had basically cornered the 5G technology, getting all competitors out of the market, but then Trump ended it. China is buying strategically important technology companies from around the globe, like Kuka for example, and then moves the knowledge into their country. If this trend continues, eventually we…

Porcelain isn't what runs the world. It's like citing how Italy has an expensive luxury good that they only know how to make there and therefore they are a top nation of the world, while they haven't been since the roman empire.

It's not, I've only used it as an example. China had been the world's leading economy for a long time. They spawned many innovations like guns or even paper money. They had a bad century but it's foolish to belittle them.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#45

Post by vlozko »

RestlessMind wrote: post #28
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

In such a hypothetical situation, I think China is able to at a minimum neutralize nations into not being on a side at all given the economic sway that it has in the world.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#46

Post by bigpumpkin »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output.

Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies.

2. The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy.

3. China does not have enough oil to sustain itself in the case of a war. So there will be a strategic competition for the South China Sea and the control of the Strait of Malacca.

4. Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#47

Post by whimsicalism »

RestlessMind wrote: post #28
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

> In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you think China can match that alliance?

Project population forward another 50 years. China will have Nigeria along with a few other African power houses, which at some point will probably comprise at least 40% of the world's population.

I don't think the US can count on India in the same way that it can count on the others in that list, although I suspect that the US and India will grow closer as immigration continues to increase/due to lingual bonds.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#48

Post by bboygravity »

whimsicalism wrote: post #29
bboygravity wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you or anybody elaborate on why you think the West (US) and China are that different in the big picture? The way I see it: in China politics/policy are largely steered by big money (companies) + the emperor. The only difference I see with the West is that the emperor of the West is less powerful than Xi. The "nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly.…

> Aren't the root issues as simple as that? Not at all. The '"nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly' has historically almost never been the case. It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements. > easy example: Mao Mao is not such an easy example, given that there is a continuity of government from M…

> Just look at the number in China in absolute poverty over the last 100 years. Honestly, your comment seems remarkably ill-reformed.

Last 100 years? I was thinking more towards the last 2500 years or so of Chinese and Western history. Will edit my previous comment to clarify.

> It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements.

Could you give some counter examples to these non-democracies that went from 0 to very powerful (in terms of geo-politics, economy and science and technology) in a matter of decades: various kingdoms before the year 0 (Syrians, Persians, Babylonians, etc), the Romans during and after Ceasar, the old world European exploring kingdoms (Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese, English), old Chinese Dynasties, modern Singapore, China, USSR.

So what do you mean "The '"nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly' has historically almost never been the case."??

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#49

Post by perardi »

Simulacra wrote: post #10

I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal…

Aren’t they, in a sense, nuclearized, as they live under our security aegis?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#50

Post by hlgarret »

whimsicalism wrote: post #22
simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

Agreed, the awakening is already there in our field. While western "males" are competing how to successfully submit to "oppressed" groups, Asians already dominate some subfields like machine learning.
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