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A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#41

Post by riffraff »

rudolph9 wrote: post #6
riffraff wrote: post #3

>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.

Provided the article wasn’t exactly clear and I have no way of knowing exactly what the author meant; I think things like civil unrest can be thought of as a “crack”, the US 1st amendment almost encourages small cracks and they quickly get filled in and we move forward with things slightly adjusted (for better or worse). Although in many regards the process is still flawed, the ability for the us to peacefully transf…

But how is china's situation different from the Soviet experience?

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#42

Post by plerpin »

BurningFrog wrote: post #37
michaelborromeo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political…

> American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control Trump is not a conservative, and he's not enacting especially conservative policies.

He plays those conservative wedge issues masterfully, though. It works.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#43

Post by mleonhard »

> With the waning of the liberal world order, a more normal historical era of geopolitical rivalry has commenced, and trade tensions are merely accompaniments to such rivalry.

Background on "liberal world (economic) order":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_international_economic...

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#44

Post by riffraff »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #10
riffraff wrote: post #3

>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.

The intuition is that freer political systems are both more challenging and less rewarding to subvert, because no individual person or group has overwhelming power.

I get the difference with the US, but isn't this the same that was true for the Soviets?

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#45

Post by NineStarPoint »

chrisco255 wrote: post #32
NineStarPoint wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what Trump represents to allies is not just an oscilating to conservative control. It represents the willingness of the american public to put someone in charge of foreign policy that has a complete disrespect for America’s allies, and a strong willingness to turn America more isolationist and less supportive of free trade. Ultimately, I don’t think Trump alone will really effect things long term though, no. If i…

We're in a cold war with China and our manufacturing base has eroded over the past 40 years thanks to free trade. Now we are in a relatively weak position to be fighting a cold war. Say what you will about Trump, but he did start calling out China with his 2016 run. I have no doubts about the U.S.'s adaptability but often times we have to get punched in the face before we really appreciate the gravity of the situatio…

Functionally, I agree with you on China in many respects. Ultimately no trade with them is really free trade regardless due to the way they manage their own economy. The problem with Trump in this regard is that he didn’t just call out China. He called out everyone, starting trade wars not just with China, but Mexico, Canada, more general sweeping sets of tarrifs, and also weakening our alliances separately. And this is a big deal if one actually wants to take on China economically. A big block of allies all getting into a trade war with China would have a substantially higher chance of success than the US just going it alone. Instead it was just us vs them and nothing really came of it. The cold war was not just US vs USSR. It was the western bloc vs the eastern bloc, and all other allies those groups picked up along the way. And any geopolitical fight between entities the size of China and the US would need to be carried out similarly to be successful.

To the final point on whether free trade is worth it, that’s a decision that can be made. But it is a decision, and would have pretty extreme effects on the US’s standing on the world stage, along with tons of other knock on effects on how the economy works. Whether that’s a trade off that’s worth it is a much more complicated discussion, but certainly far from simple.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#46

Post by s_y_n_t_a_x »

sametmax wrote: post #34
s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably the concentration camps, organ harvesting, and various other human rights violations, rather than the accumulation of wealth. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/asia/xinjiang-china-reeducati... https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/chinese-dissidents-are-being-e... https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/09/04/7570898...

There are many countries that do such things, but the US selectively chose who are the ennemy du jour, and most are not tagged as such. In fact, some of them are friends with the US. What's more, I recall the US in the last 2 decades: - went to a war by lying about WMD and against the entire world (at least the world represented by the UN) will, killing thousands - deployed mass surveillance of its own people, introd…

Whataboutism, I simply stated ongoing actions by the CCP that probably influence people to view them as evil.

It's up for people to decide what they view as acceptable, the history of every country is for the most part transparent these days.

Laundry listing things other countries do (I disagree they come close to the atrocities committed by the CCP) is not a great defense.

I listed CURRENT atrocities being committed by the CCP right now, you picked from our entire history that we as Americans have already expressed outrage (WMD's, etc)

I even left out surveillance because all countries seem to be spying on their citizens, though the CCP goes a lot further with no accountability because it's a dictatorship.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#47

Post by scottlocklin »

>For several decades, China’s breakneck development was seen positively in the United States, and the relatively enlightened authoritarianism of Deng Xiaoping and his successors was easily tolerated

It was seen positively because our ruling caste of self-regarding morons thought China was more likely to become a liberal democracy as they became more prosperous and integrated with the world economy. An obvious delusion, even at the time. By contrast, the Chinese looked at what happened to Russia and decided to stick with totalitarianism in their economic development.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#48

Post by jackcosgrove »

loufe wrote: post #36
jackcosgrove wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese birthrates would have fallen anyways due to increasing education and prosperity. The one child policy only accelerated the decline. When it was lifted, birthrates hardly budged. Every developed country is a slow motion demographic car crash. China is in a bad position, I'll grant, because the CCP's legitimacy depends upon demographic dividend-scale growth rates when the dividend has already peaked. Democratic…

I think it's easy to say their "legitimacy" or "stability" depends on high growth rates, but I don't think that's necessarily the case. I would love to hear even one genuine expert on the subject make the case for a revolution in even the 30 years following a drop from insane growth back to earth.

I think CCP legitimacy does depend upon a social contract of rising living standards, compared to the Mao era when political idealism had more purchase.

Moreover rising expectations beget rising expectations, and the genie is out of the bottle.

I don't foresee a revolution either, rather a perestroika movement that will be forced from below but embraced out of necessity from above. As the video said, all of the energy needed to address domestic unrest will drain from China's ability to project their national interest.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#49

Post by loyukfai »

chrisco255 wrote: post #33
loyukfai wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a chance that the Americans can change that in a few months though. If so, Trump may become just a footnote in history, and hopefully a valuable lesson, at least for a few generations. Meanwhile, we people in Hong Kong and China can choose between "strongly support", "reluctantly support", "disapprovingly support", etc... Xi to continue as the head of PRC. Get out and vote. Ask the people around you to do so…

I see no evidence that Biden would be tough on China. He seems more likely to want to appease and try to profit from it than anything else.

Was responding to the OP that the "Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage."

Have heard that Biden would be soft on China/Xi because of his commercial interest, but I haven't done enough research to justify this viewpoint myself.

It's kind of ironic for me, who identify both as a HKer and a Chinese, to hope that the world can get tougher on China, or Xi/PRC to be more exact. What they're doing is IMO damaging to the Chinese people in the long term, and let's not begin to discuss HK.

OTOH, I also understand that every country, including the US, has her own dark side as well. But then, when you put everything on a balance... It's just overall a complicated, difficult and sad situation, as life often is.

Cheers.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#50

Post by tibbydudeza »

michaelborromeo wrote: post #16
tibbydudeza wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.

I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political…

Outside the US there is only derision and sadness now for a country that elected a reality tv star and clown ... Bush and Reagan regardless of their politics was at least respected.
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