A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
foreignpolicy.com
A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
1–10 of 72 posts
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#2Funny to see how these two corrupt 3rd world countries are at “war” with each other, while the rest of the world couldnt care less.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#3>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s.
I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it.
If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#4Begun? You have to be tonedeaf or willfully ignoring the amount of IP that Chinese corporate spies have outright stolen from North America over the last few decades.
Let’s be honest - we have strong cyber security considerations because of very few, but very known bad actors. China is near the top of that list and has been for awhile.
Nevermind all the other security considerations.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#5Due to decades of Deng Xiaoping's One Child Policy, China is a slow motion demographic car crash that's impossible to stop. China will "get old before it gets rich", and the days of 6% growth aren't coming back.
I recommend anyone interested in geopolitics and the world over the next 30 years to watch this lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0
It's the best overview of the future wealth and strength of brutal Chinese dictatorship that I've come across.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#6>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.
Provided the article wasn’t exactly clear and I have no way of knowing exactly what the author meant; I think things like civil unrest can be thought of as a “crack”, the US 1st amendment almost encourages small cracks and they quickly get filled in and we move forward with things slightly adjusted (for better or worse). Although in many regards the process is still flawed, the ability for the us to peacefully transfer power at all levels of government every is really quite remarkable!
Where as China being authoritarian any civil unrest has a much higher likelihood of overthrowing the government in a violent and expensive way. Transitions of power happen infrequently and are very dangerous particularly at the highest level given how synchronized authoritarian governments tend to require.
Everything in life has trade offs. And while the Chinese have accomplished things the US hasn’t; imperfections in government are inevitable and the US is arguably more resilient to these imperfections over extended periods of time given the US ability to effectively and efficiently accommodate changes to address these imperfections.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#7The low-tech economies of China and America are integrated, but what about the high-tech ones? Can American companies create sub-apps on WeChat like Chinese ones can?
As far as I know, US-Soviet trade was not comparable in scale to US-China trade. Did a lack of trade prolong the Cold War of the 20th century?
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#8Due to decades of Deng Xiaoping's One Child Policy, China is a slow motion demographic car crash that's impossible to stop. China will "get old before it gets rich", and the days of 6% growth aren't coming back. I recommend anyone interested in geopolitics and the world over the next 30 years to watch this lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0 It's the best overview of the future wealth and strength of…
Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#9>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.
I don't think China is going anywhere for at least a generation.
If you dig into the collapse of most countries/empires/super powers, they collapse from either:
- External pressures - foreign influence through military/conquering, investment, or mass immigration. With the exception of Taiwan, China has been effective in reducing or at least controlling all of those. And even that may be cracking where you see groups like WHO refusing to even say the word "Taiwan." With the US and Russia tied up with other things, military is less likely an issue to.
- Internal pressures - social strife due to mass deprivation (starvation, poverty in general) or mass immigration/tribalism. Once again, China has been effective here. They've raised the standard of living and disappeared most of the major dissenters. They've even reduced tribalism by isolating and disappearing huge minorities. Good? Absolutely not. Effective? Unfortunately.
Even the "One Child" policy seems to have led to less strife than predicted. While there are some places that have 140 men for every 100 women, those are the official numbers. It appears that under the policy, huge swathes of people just didn't report daughters being born. There's a generation of women who simply don't exist.
Based on the investment strategy (both nationally and corporately), China has gone all in on Africa for years. If I had to place a bet, they may effectively run/own Africa in a decade or two. If not in person, on paper.
Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)
#10>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.
The intuition is that freer political systems are both more challenging and less rewarding to subvert, because no individual person or group has overwhelming power.