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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

41–50 of 381 posts

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#41
post #29

I hope the reason is that Indians are intrinsically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, that would be a big relief.

Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

Resistance doesn't have to be genetic, it could be acquired through exposure to pathogens.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#42
I generally have a very poor opinion of the govt officials in my country owing to some very bad past experiences in India. But this time I too was pleasantly surprised.

My friend lives in a very populated area in Delhi called Tilak nagar and he told me in feb end iirc that the house opposite his has a huge plaque on it that says *Quarantine, this house has a covid patient" put on by police. This was the time when nobody knew how serious this thing was. So yeah it does seem they got some things right too this time.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#43

Ah yet another cant-be-true-they're-hiding-something article? Surely they can't be doing better than developed countries? FWIW, India did implement a stronger lockdown much earlier on in the curve than other countries. State and federal authorities went lock-step in their actions, and with consistent messaging. Police enforced the lockdown at times even brutally, getting the point across to the general public. Indian…

The entire gist of the article isn't "it can't be true they're hiding something", it's "if statistics in the West are underreported which they likely are, why on earth would one believe they're not underreported in a country with far more limited access to medical care for much of the population where deaths from respiratory diseases are far more commonplace in normal times" India's lockdown started the day after the…

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Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#44
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When New York went in to lockdown, it had ~7000 cases (20th March) [1] When UK went in to lockdown, it had 6700 cases. (23rd March) [2] When India went in to lockdown, it had 657 cases. (25th March) [2] [1] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/new-york-workfor... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

These are confirmed cases, i.e. people who have tested positive. Actual cases, either in India or the UK, are unknown.

Even if India’s number is off by 2 orders of magnitude so the number of cases were actually ~70000 (highly unlikely, since those numbers would show up in hospitalizations), that would 70,000/1.4Bn, so about 1 in 20,000.

NYC at 6000 cases meant it had approx 1 positive in 1000, and the UK at 6000 cases meant it had approx 1 positive in 10,000.

So even if we assume that the US and UK were not undercounting, and that India was undercounting by a factor of 100 (!), India was about half as infected as the UK and an order of magnitude less infected than NYC when it entered lockdown.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#45

Anecdotally I know ex-colleagues who got Covid19 in the US and one of them has died. I literally know of no one who is sick, much less with covid19, here in India in my friend circle, in my family circle and across the 1000+ employee company I work in. Either there's asymptomatic sick in my circle or no one has it. Granted I am anxious, and hope things don't get worse, but international media has been pathetic on rep…

Print's reporting has been a mixed bag. For eg, the last video compares deaths vs testing in a poor country like Bolivia — situated many miles away from global hotspots to that of Belgium's — one of Europe's headquarters. It seems to suggest that increase in testing and quick isolation is somewhat of a "subjective" factor and doesn't help India. This, completely disregarding factors like geography, demographics, Boli…

True, but same is applicable to India. India shouldn't have to test more just because US has to.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#46
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When New York went in to lockdown, it had ~7000 cases (20th March) [1] When UK went in to lockdown, it had 6700 cases. (23rd March) [2] When India went in to lockdown, it had 657 cases. (25th March) [2] [1] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/new-york-workfor... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Comparing cases is pretty meaningless if you don't also compare test rates.

There is no good metric for comparing test rates as well, tests per million makes no sense when a lot of states within the country have almost zero cases. India's less than 5% positive ratio on tests even in hotspot regions do not indicate a massive lack of testing.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#47
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

Resistance doesn't have to be genetic, it could be acquired through exposure to pathogens.

SARS and MERS did not provide immunity against each other nor against SARS2.

There is no indication that other common coronavirus infections such as those that cause 10-30% of common cold cases world wide provide any immunity to the current virus.

Also given the sheer size of India it’s unlikely that there would be a pathogen that provides immunity on this scale that would not have been identified previously since it would end up causing complications and deaths in some infections even if at much lower rates than previous epidemics.

If it also managed to spread across India It would’ve also spread worldwide.

Lastly like someone else mentioned migrants native to the region where hit pretty hard everywhere else.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Print's reporting has been a mixed bag. For eg, the last video compares deaths vs testing in a poor country like Bolivia — situated many miles away from global hotspots to that of Belgium's — one of Europe's headquarters. It seems to suggest that increase in testing and quick isolation is somewhat of a "subjective" factor and doesn't help India. This, completely disregarding factors like geography, demographics, Boli…

True, but same is applicable to India. India shouldn't have to test more just because US has to.

I don't think that was ever the argument. Increased testing has been recommended by the WHO, has noticeably helped prevent a bigger outbreak impact in South Korea & Germany and quick isolation makes a lot of sense for a disease that is asymptomatic in most patients.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#49
post #34

I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month.…

> Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). What? Why are doctors being beaten up? I don't understand.

Few isolated incidents mostly in slum areas where rumors spread of a government conspiracy of targeting muslims. This government's anti-minority image did not help.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/assam-mla-held-for...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#50
A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?!

I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common physical contact like 'kissing on meeting' (see France, Italy, northern Romania etc.), (d) the population is generally very dispersed (compare US density with areas of Western Europe or China) and (e) there is prevalent use of personal cars instead of public transport (as opposed to Western Europe and China, again), which should further diminish transmission.

US stats look worrying for everyone on Earth, it almost looks like a wild difference in viral strains or some other important but unknown factor.

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