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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

31–40 of 381 posts

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#31
post #15

Poor article, not even a single mention of the most likely reason for low death rate (apart from young population), the weather! Strong Sun (UV light) and high humidity quickly kills the virus. Warm countries like Thailand - despite millions of tourists from Wuhan - have low death rates. In Spain cold Madrid was affected much worse than sunnier south. Summer will soon rapidly kill of the virus in southern Europe.

From the article: "Yet others talk about the possibilities of the presence of a less virulent strain of the virus in India, along with the possibility that its hot weather was diminishing the contagion. Both these claims are not backed by any evidence."

> "Both these claims are not backed by any evidence"

There is evidence for the weather claim, but it's complicated by other factors.

Multiple studies [1] have observed a correlation between weather/UV and severity of outbreak.

Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, Qom, UK, Korea and Northern USA have all fit a comparable weather profile during their outbreaks.

The problem is that this virus seems to be more durable/resilient than other seasonal viruses (flu, common cold), and even in hot climates, many people still spend a lot of time congregated in air conditioned office/residential buildings, shopping centres, public transportation systems, etc.

So it's true that hot weather alone is not enough to end an outbreak.

But it can reduce the extent/severity, and the observed evidence seems to bear that out.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/c8ed3692-6db3-11ea-9bca-bf503995c...

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#32

Ah yet another cant-be-true-they're-hiding-something article? Surely they can't be doing better than developed countries? FWIW, India did implement a stronger lockdown much earlier on in the curve than other countries. State and federal authorities went lock-step in their actions, and with consistent messaging. Police enforced the lockdown at times even brutally, getting the point across to the general public. Indian…

I flew from India to the US in early February (2nd week).

Indian airports were doing thermal checks on passengers (using tech that had been installed during the Zika virus scare a few years back, I believe). The newspapers also had info about how anyone found with elevated temperatures were being asked to self quarantine, and the police was also following up.

The US had, absolutely nothing. Nada. Before the flight I was afraid that entering the US would be difficult, but it was clear (and it remained this way for over a month), that if anything, entering India, if not difficult, would actually involve checks, something that was non existent in US ports.

Further, and I don’t know if this is mentioned, the flight into India involved the cabin crew spraying some sort of pest control spray in the cabins before we landed. They mentioned it was due to regulations. Considering SARS-COV-2 has been found to have been easily killed (within minutes) of exposure to common disinfectants, could this spray have greatly minimized the virus entering the country, on baggage’s and clothing, etc?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#33
They dont even mention other options such as previous vaccinations, cross effects from other drugs, antibodies from other coronaviruses , humidity/sunlight etc. "They must be hiding something" means they either believe it's a conspiracy, or is a borderline racist attitude

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#34

I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month.…

> Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops).

What? Why are doctors being beaten up? I don't understand.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#35
post #29

I hope the reason is that Indians are intrinsically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, that would be a big relief.

Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#36
About relative low death counts in some Asian countries by comparison with Europe or America, we must take in mind that Asian people could had been exposed in the past to a virus of Asian origin (or to a relatively similar virus strain), so they could have developed some immunity previously.

I would want to include in the discussion (and this is just my opinion and wild speculation by my part, not more, not less) the spring wildfires around Chernobyl area also in 2020. I wonder if ashes in the atmosphere are being also a hidden source of respiratory problems for Europe than nobody is taking in mind. Could explain the strange pattern of people that has recovered from the disease but somehow falls ill again and starts coughing again and again in waves, malaria style.

I remember similar massive coughs in all Europe in 2015 (if I'm not wrong) exactly at the same time that Russian and Ukrainian armies were burning forests in the North of Ukranie. I can be wrong, but there is not much to lose by researching that except time, and we have a lot currently. If we seen that spikes in hospital admissions match the burning periods and the wind direction plus a reasonable delay to reach the areas we could do further research.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire gist of the article isn't "it can't be true they're hiding something", it's "if statistics in the West are underreported which they likely are, why on earth would one believe they're not underreported in a country with far more limited access to medical care for much of the population where deaths from respiratory diseases are far more commonplace in normal times" India's lockdown started the day after the…

When New York went in to lockdown, it had ~7000 cases (20th March) [1] When UK went in to lockdown, it had 6700 cases. (23rd March) [2] When India went in to lockdown, it had 657 cases. (25th March) [2] [1] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/new-york-workfor... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Comparing cases is pretty meaningless if you don't also compare test rates.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire gist of the article isn't "it can't be true they're hiding something", it's "if statistics in the West are underreported which they likely are, why on earth would one believe they're not underreported in a country with far more limited access to medical care for much of the population where deaths from respiratory diseases are far more commonplace in normal times" India's lockdown started the day after the…

When New York went in to lockdown, it had ~7000 cases (20th March) [1] When UK went in to lockdown, it had 6700 cases. (23rd March) [2] When India went in to lockdown, it had 657 cases. (25th March) [2] [1] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/new-york-workfor... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

These are confirmed cases, i.e. people who have tested positive. Actual cases, either in India or the UK, are unknown.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#39
post #29

I hope the reason is that Indians are intrinsically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, that would be a big relief.

Based on how many people of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi descent are dying in the UK there is no indication that people form the Indian subcontinent have some genetic resiliency or immunity to the virus.

Also, how quickly the cases have been spreading through Singaporean's Foreign Worker Dormitories. I believe at some point, there were more Bangladeshis confirmed infected in Singapore than in Bangladesh.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#40

Anecdotally I know ex-colleagues who got Covid19 in the US and one of them has died. I literally know of no one who is sick, much less with covid19, here in India in my friend circle, in my family circle and across the 1000+ employee company I work in. Either there's asymptomatic sick in my circle or no one has it. Granted I am anxious, and hope things don't get worse, but international media has been pathetic on rep…

Print's reporting has been a mixed bag.

For eg, the last video compares deaths vs testing in a poor country like Bolivia — situated many miles away from global hotspots to that of Belgium's — one of Europe's headquarters. It seems to suggest that increase in testing and quick isolation is somewhat of a "subjective" factor and doesn't help India.

This, completely disregarding factors like geography, demographics, Bolivia's first case landing a month after Belgium's, and Belgium being one of the few countries in Europe to actually count non-hospital deaths and more.

There's some confirmation bias here.

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