Live data from Hacker News

New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

federalnewsnetwork.com

41–50 of 175 posts

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#41

country doesn't need that many pilots if it doesn't wage endless wars, though.

Most of the boomer airline pilots will be retired in the next decade. The number of pilots in the US currently is about half of what it was in 1980. I'd imagine the demand for air travel has not decreased by half in that same time frame.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#42
post #11

country doesn't need that many pilots if it doesn't wage endless wars, though.

Except they do. Pilots also fly in humanitarian aid, fly out civilians and medical casualties, carry out Search and Rescue, and perform reconnaissance during natural disasters.

Civilian pilots can, and do, all those things. And in much cheaper aircraft to fly/maintain.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#43
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting. I'm curious how much of your college costs that ROTC participation covered. Just tuition, or housing too, or also a stipend?

When I was accepted into the Army's ROTC program in 1998 (which I ended up declining), they were willing to pay up to $14,500 per year. I assume the other programs were about the same.

Sure, I ask because some programs, like the Navy uses for nuclear engineers, offer a much higher number. I'm somewhat curious how much the US government gives away due to poor planning, where the candidate is released because there's no spot for them at the end.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#44
post #6

Seems like the Air Force is trapped in a vicious underhiring/overhiring cycle. When I was in college I did Air Force ROTC. A lot of my peers had pilot slots; I was poised as a 17D (Cyber Ops). After graduating, my training date was put on hold virtually indefinitely. Eventually I got an email that the Air Force had commissioned way too many officers and were looking for people to voluntarily leave with no commitment/…

And...there is the other end. My brother is a pilot and was retired by the Air Force because he had been in so long...so out he goes. Now he is a contractor flying drones for them getting paid 3x as much while drawing a hefty retirement. My brother loved the Air Force and wanted to stay...now he gets to stay and get paid a boat load more. Air Force brass not very smart.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#45
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am guessing when you say "I do" you must have a pretty good idea of the person you are marrying.

Weren't we talking about people in their twenties? Do you people often get married at that age? I thought it was more common to delay marriage and kids to later in the career nowadays?

Women marrying into the military tend to be more conservative.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#46

> A recent RAND study found the cost of training a basic qualified fighter pilot ranges from $5.6 million for an F-16 pilot to $10.9 million for an F-22 pilot. Those numbers seem outrageous to me. Why does it cost so much? Are there frequent plane crashes?

Cost of flying F-22 for an hour is reported anywhere between $33k and $70k, with most estimates in the $60k range. Let's assume $50k/hour to be safe - 200 hours of flight time gets you to the $10 million figure on its own, with no other costs accounted for. Pilot still ends up the cheap part of the equation, given ~$200mil+ per airplane cost. Whee - are we having budgetary fun yet :-)

I hadn't thought about the cost of flight time. That makes sense.

To put what you said in another way, every hour an F-22 flys costs the same as hiring someone at a middle class wage for a year.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#47
post #23
post #6

Seems like the Air Force is trapped in a vicious underhiring/overhiring cycle. When I was in college I did Air Force ROTC. A lot of my peers had pilot slots; I was poised as a 17D (Cyber Ops). After graduating, my training date was put on hold virtually indefinitely. Eventually I got an email that the Air Force had commissioned way too many officers and were looking for people to voluntarily leave with no commitment/…

That's interesting. I'm curious how much of your college costs that ROTC participation covered. Just tuition, or housing too, or also a stipend?

Currently, ROTC cadets who are offered a scholarship (not all are), receive:

1) Full tuition and fees OR $10k/year to cover room and board. Cadet chooses. I'd expect at most schools the tuition+fees is worth more, but some cadets have other scholarships that might cover all or part of tuition.

2) $1200/year for textbooks

3) $300-$500/month (depending on year) living stipend

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost of flying F-22 for an hour is reported anywhere between $33k and $70k, with most estimates in the $60k range. Let's assume $50k/hour to be safe - 200 hours of flight time gets you to the $10 million figure on its own, with no other costs accounted for. Pilot still ends up the cheap part of the equation, given ~$200mil+ per airplane cost. Whee - are we having budgetary fun yet :-)

I hadn't thought about the cost of flight time. That makes sense. To put what you said in another way, every hour an F-22 flys costs the same as hiring someone at a middle class wage for a year.

My guess is that a substantial part of those costs are probably to pay a few people a middle class wage.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#49
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting. I'm curious how much of your college costs that ROTC participation covered. Just tuition, or housing too, or also a stipend?

Currently, ROTC cadets who are offered a scholarship (not all are), receive: 1) Full tuition and fees OR $10k/year to cover room and board. Cadet chooses. I'd expect at most schools the tuition+fees is worth more, but some cadets have other scholarships that might cover all or part of tuition. 2) $1200/year for textbooks 3) $300-$500/month (depending on year) living stipend

Actually it looks like the Air Force offers scholarships in 3 tiers: https://www.afrotc.com/scholarships/high-school/types/

In addition to the offer I described above, it looks like a "Type 2" scholarship is the same, but with tuition+fees capped at $18k/year, and "Type 3" is the same, but with tuition+fee capped at the in-state rate at a public university.

Re: New study shows grim outlook for future of Air Force pilot shortage

#50
post #14

An Anecdotal "I quit" I read a couple of years ago about the (then impending) pilot shortage: https://www.jqpublicblog.com/punching-out-latest-dear-boss-l... Dear Boss, I’ve fucking had it. I’m finally giving up on my Air Force and I’m throwing in the towel. Flying fighter jets is no longer cool enough to outweigh the bullshit, and so I’ve broken the mach for the final time. You’re going to believe that I’m leaving b…

I'm a former Air Force pilot and was going to writeup a long post about my experience. But, this pretty much sums it up. I loved the people, and LOVED the flying. Some of the best times of my life. But, the organizational bloat, bureaucratic BS, and constant deployments just became too much. As you can imagine, it really wears on you to be gone 6 mo's every year risking your life for a counterproductive endless war t…

>risking your life for a counterproductive endless war that the American public barely knows is happening.

Yet the American public happily votes for these wars over and over.

Post reply on HN