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India will overtake the US economy by 2030

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Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#41

Post by benj111 »

asark wrote: post #25
reversengineer wrote: post #20

PPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm 15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold for ￥1 each on the street.

I want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-( [EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, arou…

"actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, around here, to get a baguette that's on par with your average Parisian one"

I have never found a decent baguette outside of France at any price, so you're doing better than me.

How would your price metric work then?

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#42

Post by pacala »

bdod6 wrote: post #32
pacala wrote: post #6

Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years. PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange r…

A lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.

Everything you said applies today to the demographic pyramids of the respective 2 countries, with only an 11 years delta. And yet Germany has 5x the GDP.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#43

Post by olcor »

JoshTko wrote: post #39

Just came back from India and I would easily bet against India overtaking the US by 2030. It took me 45 min to travel 3km during rush hour.

Ha! I had a similar experience in the valley (mountain view) during an interview. Took me 15 minutes more, and I got late for my first round.

Driving in NYC is out of the question any time of day.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#44

Post by chii »

outlace wrote: post #19
cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

But if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower? It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one with greater revenue may still have more ec…

> a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost

and this company isn't able to pay the employees with much compared to company A (read: country is poor even if GDP is high). But, with smart re-investment or debt structure, a country with high GDP low per-capita can rise out of poverty. But company A isn't just gonna sit idly by and let it happen.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#45

Post by KorematsuFred »

ben_jones wrote: post #12
remarkEon wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true that the US is no saint in this regard, the scale of IP theft by China is industrial, and well known.

Yes imagine if Thomas Edison had had his inventions stolen! American ingenuity stands on our patent system.

Edison was the biggest thief of IP during his time. Of course when western societies steal it is not theft but "manifest destinty" "braveness" and a lot of other BS. But Chinese company's rise is purely because of theft. Is it ?

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#46

Post by kshacker »

screye wrote: post #21

Is this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in Q…

==> I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago.

I think the article is too optimistic in India's favor, but it is incorrect to say "India is no closer". As per the following link, India was #12 in GDP just 10 years back, and now India is #6 or #7 knocking at #5.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/india?year=2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

Yes you are right the problems will not be solved in 1 generation. It probably will take longer, but there has been significant change in the past 1 generation, and there will be similar significant change in the next 1 generation.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#47

Post by Tade0 »

asark wrote: post #25
reversengineer wrote: post #20

PPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm 15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold for ￥1 each on the street.

I want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-( [EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, arou…

I think this is more related to the respective climates and local tastes than anything else.

For example I can't for the life of me find any good potatoes, apples or bread in Italy - or anything even remotely sour that isn't wine - apparently it's not something the locals particularly enjoy.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#48

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

The article didn't go into much detail about how all this was calculated out. I don't think they took into account gov debt. that can be a huge factor. Japan for instance has not had any increase in GDP over the last 25 years and that doesn't look like it's going to change. So I don't see how their gdp can jump from 4.8T to 7.2T in just 11 years!

Japan is currently at 230% and it weighing very heavily along with their aging population. Their GDP hasn't been increasing at all in the last 25 years. The US is heading in the same direction with budget deficit of 4% every year whilst only growing 3.3% a year. US interest payments are expected to reach 25% of federal spending in 2028 if we continue with our current deficits. At that point, unfortunately US growth will be a complete standstill, for decades to come :(

Indonesia is an interesting one to watch, i keep forgetting how much people are in that country!

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#50

Post by forkLding »

cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

It depends on what you are measuring, if you are comparing national power and influence then GDP is still an alright metric, while internally something like Andrew Yang's quality of life metrics or GDP per capita makes more sense.

By GDP per capita, Liechtenstein and Qatar is number 1 and 2

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